rocket_scientist

I agree but a self-proclaimed expert in this field disagrees.

But if I had cashed out at even money just before the Derby equaliser, I would have been better off surely? Your "bookie mates" might convince a retarded punter that cash out is a bad option but as we've seen tonight, in real time, the cash out option is a nightmare for them. The ONLY data that matters to prove it either way is... well you're a professional punter, you're the self-proclaimed expert, what is it? Your bullshit doesn't cut no ice. The total saved v. the total lost by punters using the cash out button will prove without doubt that the cash out option is the punter's friend, not the bookies. They curse the first bookie who introduced it. In furtherance of your education, my Genoa Liverpool double cash out has now increased to 1.405. Not the 1.444 that Genoa earned at 4/9 of course but a big increase from what it was, 1.342. You know why? Self-proclaimed expert? Of course you do. It's because Liverpool's odds have been slashed to 1/4 v. Stoke after their destruction of Roma. In further furtherance of your vocational qualifications and your CPD, get this. I got Blackburn at 3/4 tonight in a double with TSG Hoffenheim on Friday. Instead of getting 1.75 to cash out with, I'm getting 1.648. And my Chelmsford win tonight trebled with Fulham on Friday and Peterhead on Saturday, the bookies are withholding 8.852% in their cash out offer. Idiot.

I put a single on Reims at 7/5 for the away tonight. 3-1 up after 78 minutes, the cash out = 95.7% of the return. I'm not taking it but is this "heavily stacked" in the bookies favour? What should it be minijc? Edit: having just made it 1-4, the cash out is over 99%. Is this wrong too? Edit: I've got a single on Cardiff @ 9/5 and 1-0 up at HT, the cash out is 1.734. What should it be? 5 minutes into the 2nd half, the cash out has increased to 1.782. When should I cash out mini? 1.868 after 55 mins. 1.940 after 59 mins. 1.978 after 62. Evens after 66. 0.432 after the equaliser. Now can you see how the cash out button works mini?

You're confused. A cash out is an offer. It is an offer by the bookie for you to realise the bet, to end the contingency. Of course it will ALWAYS BE LESS than what we would get if we let the contingency run. But the "value" of the offer is only in the decision-making of the offeree. An average punter is a stupid animal and he will lack knowledge of numbers. But the bet has no value until it is realised. An offer to realise will ALWAYS be in favour of the offeror and as we've now learned, to a specific percentage of every running multiple bet before the final leg.

At 2-1 up, Man U would've been what, 1/7 to win. That punter took 2/3rds of what he would've got if he had held on and IF Man U had completed his 7 fold. Now you've calculated that he should've been offered 150-250 more? Based on what?

OF COURSE it's going to be less than what it would be worth if the double comes in. That's hardly news? It will be 7.1% less BEFORE in-play, before the commencement of the final leg. Then when in-play happens i.e. the match kicks off, the cash out option changes depending on what's happening in the final leg and depending on the time during the final leg. And a bet is worth NOTHING until it is realised. You said you "know the numbers and how it works". Once again, please justify your self-proclaimed superior knowledge?

Christ. Do you know how the "cash out models" you talk of actually work? No? Well let me tell you. Calculate the amount your bet would have earned (first leg of a double or first leg or legs of a treble). Compare this to the actual the cash out value. Deduct the cash out offer from what the bet or bets would have earned. Divide that difference against the amount it would have earned. On bet365, it will be 0.0709 to the nearest 4th decimal point. Heavily stacked you say? It's 7.1%.

Are you unable to communicate in English? Did you understand what I said? Do you understand the fundamental and crucial difference between in-play and other?

Isn't this the whole point? A losing bet is worth zero. £190 in the hand is worth £220 in the bush. The bet is NOT WORTH ANYTHING at a time anything other than when it is realised, which in the old days, was full time. You have been confused by the difference between in-play and cash out between legs. You're listening to dysfunctional human beings - and every professional gambler I've met is dysfunctional in their personal lives, rarely in a good relationship and almost always unable to hold down a job (and remember that I've met few, not many, certainly not the majority and not all) - and you're confusing their statements between in-play and other. Examples. I put on Genoa last night at 4/9 doubled with Liverpool on Saturday. If I was stupid enough to cash out right now, I would get 1.342 instead of the 1.444 the bet has already earned... but it hasn't earned anything yet and won't do until it is realised. Unless I had changed my mind on Liverpool - who I think will perform well tonight and their price v. Stoke will reduce - then I have no reason to cash out. I put on SV Ried and FC Porto last night, trebled with Celtic on Sunday. If I was to cash out now, that would be poor judgement as I'm getting better than 11/10 on Celtic this Sunday now, the difference between the original stake and the return if they win.

Do you understand that cashing out a bet that then would have gone on to lose is a correct decision? Facts: - In 40 x doubles since late December, I've cashed out 10 times for £642.83. Twice, the cash outs totalling £71.53 would've lost. 8 times, including Chelsea on Sunday, the cash outs were the wrong decisions, costing a total of £55.77. So what the fuck are you talking about? What scenario are you painting? You said "I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out". Prove it. You appear to fail to grasp the simple concept of contingency.

I severely doubt that bookies do like the cash out option. I also don't understand how they "encourage" us to use it. This is a crowded market and when the first bookie offered it, everyone else had to.

I cashed out a £55 double for £97.50 instead of waiting for Chelsea to win on Sunday to return us £107.25 so it cost us £9.75 to do so, as Chelsea scored soon after I cashed out. But Soton had just had a goal disallowed, an offside against them in the two minutes before I cashed out and I knew that the £97.50 would have kept us in profit and kept on giving us more bookies money to play with. IT DIDN'T PAY OFF. Chelsea won anyway. But on the two occasions out of ten when IT DID PAY OFF, we MADE MORE than we lost on the other 8 bets. As I said at the start, keeping a spreadsheet the only way to beat the bookies and the only way to understand betting and how best to manage stakes. Nobody can understand betting better than someone who already understands betting. It's really not difficult to anyone numerate and not lacking in intelligence.

Nobody can be this thick. Nice wind up. Good fishing.

Sorry Lencarl. Good on you for wanting the best. Don't we all but we are humans and therefore it is inevitable that we will have different outlooks, attitudes, beliefs and opinions. I don't give a fuck what the media say. Results are all that matters. Their opinions are just opinions too. Who knows how we will finish the season. I'm naturally optimistic too but as far as 2017/18 is concerned, I think we have overachieved and have performed like shit most of the time.

Only a fucking retard would use it "all the time" and I've already said that the average punter is a fucking retard. But your argument is retarded. A cash out option is a welcome addition to a non-retarded punter. It never loses money when it is engaged at the right times.

Fuck me. Am I missing something simple here? What are you talking about? The only time a cash out is the right decision is if the bet doesn't come in. In 10 cash outs this year, 8 times was the wrong decision, including Chelsea when 1-0 up v. Southampton. But the twice we cashed out when the bet would've failed (when Bayern were 1-0 up away and got beat and another time when I was worried about Wolves but they held on and my pick drew after being 3-0 up), we saved more money in those two than we lost in the 8 cash outs.

He picked up £5k for a £10 stake. It was not guaranteed that his £7,400 would come in. Of course every single cash out is weighted in the bookies favour, in terms of the original odds given but what price contingency? We are up on our ten cashed out bets overall in this period of punting. Because if we hadn't cashed out when we did on the two that were the correct decision, we would have lost.

Now it's you who's spikkin shite. Cashing out 5k if Spurs had equalised would've been an easy way to relieve the bookies of cash!

This is a very offensive post, as all crap quotes that seek to distort reality are. Either you don't understand the game or you want to see AFC in a better light than we deserve. For a start, nobody was saying they were world beaters in December. Some of us watched them for three full consecutive games in a row, twice on the telly against the OF and then at Pittodrie. There is no doubt that they were hugely impressive against teams we can't get close to and were unlucky not to win BOTH games. We got them at a good time and it was telling that they were pretty exhausted and ineffective in midfield that day. But that wasn't even the story of the game. It was a rare and sublime cross by McLean and a glorious cutback by GMS for the first but the early goal wasn't even the story of the game. It was an Ambrose fuck up that sunk them quickly followed by some shite goalkeeping that gifted GMS twice and at 3-0 before HT, game over, before we drew the 2nd half 1-1. If you see no reason why we can't beat them again, perhaps you might explain how they, and others can compete against the OF and we can't? What are the qualities that I'm missing in our journeymen squad? Hibs were brilliant against Celtic. And they humped us last out. So let's not substitute reality with what we want to be the case. We would need to see a hunger and desire in these last few games that has been sadly lacking the whole season if we have any realistic aspirations of second place. Rose-tinted spectacles aren't going to paper over the cracks of McInnes and his band of wage-thiefs.

Got to hand it to the poofs. They know* a shit location when they see one. *apart from Dod Michael. The public shitters was dumb, a thrill too far. For any shirtlifting arse bandits looking in, forgive my crass attempts at humour at your expense. I'm well aware how progressive we are as a nation in our treatment of the LGBT. The demarcation lines between acceptance and promotion get a bit blurred now and again but hey, there'll always be Neanderthals who are suspicious of anything different. I think it's great that young men can choose to be women and get their cocks cut off. There were thousands of us in the 70's who wished we could. Come to think of it, perhaps there were millions of us wanting to transgender but we kept our feelings to ourselves for fear of being ostracised as weirdos.

Really? That's a bit inconsistent. The state doesn't tolerate faggots, I thought.

2,000? Are there that many repressed and closet homosexuals in the North East? You don't get rugby in Russia.

Rugby is for men who like grappling with male flesh. It's for those who are not good at football, whether they lack the artistry and coordination skills or whether they're just fat useless bastards. Like farmers for instance. The "sport" appeals to public schoolboys and that's no accident of fate, I fancy.

I hope you didn't see the nauseating Kay Burley on Sky News. That cunt would've been better off being a splash on her faither's sheets.

We will never understand women, how they think, how they do things. If you met on the internet then easy come, easy go comes to mind. Did she feel that you were beginning to love her? Sorry, silly question. I should say, did you love her? If you didn't, you had been test-driving her enough for her to know. Relationships of convenience aren't supposed to be a substitute for the real thing and the internet is hardly the best place to find it, although of course it has worked for many.