rocket_scientist

Not quite. It is a VERY EASY compute. Every time the cash out is used, the software can be programmed to determine whether the cashed out bet went on to win anyway or whether the cash out worked for the punter (because the bet went on to lose). The difference between the profit and loss informs us whether the cash out option works in favour of the bookies or whether it favours the punter. There is no long term nor short term. It's a very simple calculation. People who say they never use it or never would use it should not be in the risk assessment business. People who can't explain why it's such a bad option for the punter should not be in the risk assessment business. People who regurgitate what they've been told without understanding what they're talking about should not be in the risk assessment business. People who trust what bookmakers tell them should not be in the risk assessment business. People who receive gifts from bookmakers - whether champagne or hampers or tickets to a sporting event etc. - should not be in the risk assessment business. The bookies know who the real winners are from their betting history strategies. The losers get incentives to stick with the same bookie.

It's ok to agree to disagree. It's not ok to cop out. Before we can agree to disagree, we need to crystallise our positions in order to see our difference. You told the AFC posting community that you were a professional punter. Now you're saying you know pro punters. I'm wondering if you even know how betting exchanges work? Can you give us one example where you laid on betfair against an outcome you'd backed on a website? Or do you back the other outcomes and against your original bet in-play? If you're going to succeed in your chosen profession, you have to at least understand the mechanics of the game. Dismissing the cash out option as a bookies benefit suggests to me that you don't know anything about betting.

You get 8/1 and more for a 0-0 correct score. Do you know what minute of the game that your cash out becomes 1.25 or when it becomes 1.5?

I only ever asked you to justify your erroneous position. You are saying that there is more money saved by the bookies than is lost by exercising the cash out option. They told you this for a reason. They used terminology such as long and short term to confuse you where it can't possibly apply. If you never use the cash out option, you're not conducting ongoing risk assessments. The pro punter makes money from the cash out options.

There is nobody in Aberdeen who works "in the trading side" of the bookies. And even if there were, the only people who would believe that the cash out option favours them would be the gullible. The ONLY data that matters is saved v. lost on bets where the option was exercised. This isn't long or short term. It's an instant decision and an additional risk assessment option for the punter.

You're right. It is pointless to debate this point but be aware of the possibility that you have been misled to believe something that has no data to support it.

Even your terminology makes no sense. There's no short term or long term. The only thing that matters is whether it was the right or wrong decision but having the option can only benefit the punter as this option wasn't available before.

So you're saying that the majority of cash outs are exercised when the bets would've gone on to win anyway?

Now 11 out of 13 winners but what a weekend! The other two guys picked 10/11 and 17/20 shots which were 11am kick offs and were both leading by one goal after 83 and 84 minutes. My pick was Celtic at 2/9 but after being so fortunate with Norwich the day before, cashed out the treble for 2.243, so more than double the stake. It was the first time I've used the cash out option this season but I'm still waiting to hear from minijc how the cash out option favours the bookies!

Your happiness will diminish in time. Probably when you meet a couple of the mods. Which you probably won't as they rarely post which is just as well cos they post nothing but shite. Probably not even Dons fans and just pretending to be. I am inspiring. I inspire and motivate mods to want to ban me. They don't believe it's nothing personal but I tend to take a default position of mistrust and dislike of any cunt who seeks power and authority, however small and meaningless it is and however badly they wield it. I think I'll have a coffee now. I enjoyed porridge half an hour ago.

I don't know what Instagram is nor have I ever heard of terrace idol. In this respect, I have nothing to add. I can't help you. Please don't think I'm taking a dump in your thread. On the contrary, my love for my fellow man is so gargantuan and particularly towards fellow Dons, I thought it was important to declare my position and show my hand so that you didn't think I was ignoring you and being rude. As you were. Standing free.

I can recommend a few. Most females in Glasgow wear a bra. If this cunt is a "man" and chooses to wear one, he's fucked in the heid. No biggie. Most of us are.

If a "male" chooses to wear a dress, who are we to get involved? His chromosomatic or mental illness is not our concern. Go the faggots I say. Let your bitchy ass show, bitch.

Seen Aldo Raine last night in Inglourious Basterds. He was amazing. Brad Pitt I believe is his other name. Hadn't seen the film for years but forgot how good Aldo was. No way that cunt was weegie.

I am 11 correct from 12 picks this season. My only losing bet was QOTS who drew 3-3 with Alloa on 6th October.

My pick Norwich today were a tad fortunate but two stoppage time goals was incredible. 11/12 so far this season, Queen of the South gifting Alloa a 3 goal start before drawing 3-3 my only fail.

Very tough conditions. Not a cold wind but severe in its blusterity. Brilliant 3 points. All cos of the only piece of magic in the game. Shinnie was shite again. Wilson is toilet. May getting respect. Loving Max (despite not contributing much tonight). Lewis, Devlin and Scotty the key to this unit. Better to be lucky than good. We're going to win on 2nd December.

It's like a woman... or should I say "relationship" these days as so many of you are faggots. Although I've no experience of that so no, it's like a woman. If you split up with a girlfriend, going back to her never works. Hayes is gone. He is part of our history. He's lost two years of his development and his career. He can't hope to be still match sharp. However... in the poor standards that is the SPFL and to address our own attacking threat weakness, he would probably be more effective than what we have. Fuck knows. Rules are there to be broken.

Disaster for Scotland. 2 goals in a minute have put Rangers 4-3 down v. Spartak Moscow. Really need some great results from both halves of the OF to help our coefficient.

No I'm not wrong. It's quite simple. You and I do not understand each other. That's ok. We are all individuals.

I don't get the ticket sales for this one. We got one for my 17 year old daughter, simply because she's never ever seen the Dons draw let alone lose so she's coming along as the lucky charm but she's attended no more than half a dozen games in her life. That can't be right, that some of us can get as many tickets as we want but many genuine supporters will lose out?

Al, I did NOT glorify the event. I was responding directly to a hun and I was actually quite proud of my put down. We don't do walking away they said, before they let their club die. It was precisely them walking away and then rushing back up to see what was happening that caused the loss of life and to my knowledge, this weakness within the hun mentality has never been fully appreciated as the single reason for the tragedy.

Just as I have been known to disagree with you. But correct me if I'm wrong but you and I have never fallen out over our differences of opinions. We should be an example to everybody Al. Love golf. Love the Dons. Get pisched. Shag women (or just the wife if that's the personal choice).

I'm unaware of Aberdeen fans "obsessing" over Rangers. I am aware that many of us passionately hate the cunts. I'm good with passion. Obsession on the other hand directly implies mental illness. And yes, Celtic also have a disproportionate bunch of tinks within their ranks.

This was my put down to a hun: - Here's some facts to mull over; a week past Sunday, the cries from the Aberdeen fans towards the filth were "walking away, the Rangers way". With 10 minutes to go, a deluge of your supporters started emptying the stadium. This is gutlessness. It is the opposite of loyal. It is spoilt brat behaviour. It's the opposite of resilience and mental toughness. It's pessimistic, negative and classic fixed mindset, the same qualities to be found in every bigot. 66 people lost their lives in the Ibrox disaster because you walked away and a late goal happened, exactly the same walking away as we saw in the semi. It takes a special kind of special to celebrate child abuse as a subject from which to take self-validation, as if the long history of the shocking Catholic Church somehow makes the Protestants "good people". No one likes us, we don't care? You should care and specifically you should seek to understand why your team, your old club, your new club and your supporters are reviled the world over. If that offended any genuine Aberdeen fan, I would apologise profusely but we can't have some arsehole curtailing freedom of expression.