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rocket_scientist

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  1. What Can Be Done? — Paul Craig Roberts April 30, 2018 | Categories: Articles & Columns | Tags: | Print This Article Print This Article What Can Be Done? Paul Craig Roberts April 30, 2018 It is up to Europe whether or not the Earth dies in nuclear Armageddon. European governments do not realize their potential to save the world from Washington’s aggression, because the western Europeans are accustomed to being Washington’s vassal states since the end of World War 2, and the eastern and central Europeans have accepted Washington’s vassalage since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Vassalage pays well if all the costs are not counted. By joining NATO, the eastern and central Europeans permitted Washington to move US military presence to Russia’s borders. This military presence on Russia’s borders gave Washington undue confidence that Russia also could be coerced into a vassal state existence. Despite the dire fate of the two finest armies ever assembled—Napoleon’s Grand Army and that of Germany’s Wehrmacht—Washington hasn’t learned that the two rules of warfare are: (1) Don’t march on Russia. (2) Don’t march on Russia. Because of Europe’s subservience to Washington, Washington is unlikely to learn this lesson before Washington marches on Russia. Washington in its hubristic idiocy has already begun this march piecemeal with the coup in Ukraine and with its attacks on Syrian military positions. As I wrote earlier today https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/04/30/syrian-cisis-escalates/ Washington is escalating the crisis in Syria. What can stop this before it explodes into war is eastern and central Europe’s decision to disengage as enablers of Washington’s aggression. There are no benefits to Europe of being in NATO. Europeans are not threatened by Russian aggression, but they are threatened by Washington’s aggression against Russia. If the American neoconservatives and their Israeli allies succeed in provoking a war, all of Europe would be destroyed. Forever. What is wrong with European politicians that they take this risk with the peoples that they govern? Europe is still a place of beauty constructed by humans over the ages—architecturally, artistically, and intellectually—and the museum should not be destroyed. Once free of Washington’s vassalage, Europe could even be brought back to creative life. Europe is already suffering economically from Washington’s illegal sanctions against Russia forced upon Europeans by Washington and from the millions of non-Eurpopean refugees flooding the European countries fleeing from Washington’s illegal wars against Muslim peoples, wars that Americans are forced to fight for the benefit of Israel. What do Europeans get for the extreme penalties imposed on them as Washington’s vassals? They get nothing but the threat of Armageddon. A small handful of European “leaders” get enormous subsidies from Washington for enabling Washington’s illegal agendas. Just take a look at Tony Blair’s enormous fortune, which is not the normal reward for a British prime minister. Europeans, including the “leaders,” have much more to gain from being connected to the Russia/China Silk Road project. It is the East that is rising, not the West. The Silk Road would connect Europe to the rising East. Russia has undeveloped territory full of resources—Siberia—that is larger then the United States. On a purchasing power parity basis, China is already the world’s largest economy. Militarily the Russian/Chinese alliance is much more than a match for Washington. If Europe had any sense, any leadership, it would tell Washington good-bye. What is the value to Europe of Washington’s hegemony over the world? How do Europeans, as opposed to a handful of politicians receiving bags full of money from Washington, benefit from their vassalage to Washington? Not one benefit can be identified. Washington’s apologists say that Europe is afraid of being dominated by Russia. So why aren’t Europeans afraid of their 73 years of domination by Washington, especially a domination that is leading them into military conflict with Russia? Unlike Europeans and Russians, Americans have scant experience with wartime casualties. Just one World War 1 battle, the Battle of Verdun, produced more casualties than the battle deaths that US has experienced in all the wars of its existence beginning with the Revolutionary War for independence from Brittain. The World War 1 Battle of Verdun,which took place prior to the US entry into the war, was the longest and most costly battle in human history. An estimate in 2000 found a total of 714,231 casualties, 377,231 French and 337,000 German, for an average of 70,000 casualties a month; other recent estimates increase the number of casualties to 976,000 during the battle, with 1,250,000 suffered at Verdun during the war. In contrast, US casualties for World War 1 after US entry were 53,402 battle deaths and 200,000 nonmortal woundings. Here is the list of US battle deaths from the War of Revolution through the “global war on terror” as of August 2017: American Revolution: 4,435 War of 1812: 2,260 Wars against native Americans (1817-1898) 1,000 Mexican War 1,733 War of Northern Aggression : North: 104,414 South: 74,524 Spanish-American War 385 World War 2 291,557 Korean War 33,739 Vietnam War 47,434 Gulf War 148 This comes to 561,629 battle deaths If we add the battle deaths of the global war on terror as of Aug. 2017—6,930—we have 568,559 US battle deaths in all US wars. See: https://www.infoplease.com/us/american-wars/americas-wars-us-casualties-and-veterans That compares to 714,231 casualties, from which I am unable at this time to seperate battle deaths from nonmortal wounds and maining from a single World War 1 battle that did not involve US soldiers. In other words, except for the Confederate States and native Americans, who endured enormous Union war crimes, the US has no experience of war. So Washington enters war with ease. The next time, however, will be Armageddon, and Washington will no longer exist. And neither will the rest of us. US deaths in World War 1 were low because the US did not enter the war until the last year. Similarly in World War 2. Japan was defeated by the loss of her navy and air force and by the firebombing of Tokoyo and other Japanese cities, which required few US battle deaths. The nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaka were gratuitous and took place when Japan was asking to surrender. Approximately 200,000 Japanese civilians died in the nuclear attacks and no Americans except prisoners of war held in those cities. In Europe, as in World War 1, the US did not enter the war against Germany until the last year when the Wehrmacht had already been broken and defeated by the Soviet Red Army. The Normandy invasion faced scant opposition as all German forces were on the Russian front. If there is a World War 3 the US and all of the Western world would be immediately destroyed as nothing stands between the West and the extraordinary nuclear capability of Russia except the likelyhood of complete and total destruction. If China enters on Russia’s side, as is expected, the destruction of the entirety of the Western World will be for all time. Why does Europe enable this scenario? Is there no humanity, no intelligence left anywhere in Europe? Is Europe nothing but a collection of cattle awaiting slaughter from the machinations of the crazed American neocons? Are there no European political leaders with one ounce of common sense, one once of integrity? If not, doom is upon us as there is no humanity or intelligence in Washington. Europe must take the lead, expecially the central Europeans. These are peoples who were liberated from the Nazis by the Russians and who have in the 21st century experienced far more aggression from Washington’s pursuit of its hegemony they they have experienced from Moscow. If Europe breaks away from Washington’s control, there is hope for life. If not, we are as good as dead.
  2. You're a better supporter than I'll ever be seebass. I used to love AFC as much as you clearly do.
  3. No not about Ben Nevis or any specific mountain or range. Would be a spoiler to give any more detail. Just do it.
  4. Although of course he didn't say "it" in that interview you gave us. Nothing in that interview is even close to him saying anything wrong.
  5. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Hmmm... Sevilla who haven't won in their last 8 and Sociedad who won 4 of their last 5? You can explain the rationale how that represents good value at 3/4 when it comes in.
  6. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Since you're on bet365, I strongly suggest you take Juventus at 1/6 today. I predict that their price will crash during the week as the big money and the pro punters lump on. Doubles with anything else. 1/6 is great value.
  7. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    The World Cup is a betting graveyard. I've stuck on Juventus next Saturday in a couple of doubles, with Blackburn on Sat and with Fulham on Sunday. The latter pays almost evens so even if you stuck a tenner on some odds on stuff, a short-priced double coming in would mean you've got 70 to play with rather than 60, and away you go... for next season. The fact you forgot you had it doesn't mean you should piss it away. It's still money, their money that you can realise or add to. I've often stuck a remaining balance on a last punt. I did it on a Saturday in fact and got very lucky with a late Peterhead winner (2/9 ffs) to keep one of my bookie accounts alive.
  8. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Sticking £60 on a bet like that is tantamount to giving them your money. Given the time of season - football wise - cash out is probably is the safest thing to do. There are some crazy results happening as there always are in the final month. Example; BB and I on Saturday had our first time where both our picks lost and they weren't earning us much to begin with, Liverpool and Monaco. Fortunately our Feyenoord and Atatlanta came in yesterday to prevent 3 losses in a row but £85 up after 13/20 doubles, we won't be punting big stakes over the next couple of weeks. I've got 3 "nailed on doubles" running plus a "nailed on treble" venture with 3 of us 4, all of which are in profit, by proportionately very similar amounts depending on how long we've been doing them and providing an overall balance of just over £500, which has stalled over the last 2/3 weeks. On the most recently started, my mate suggested PSG for his pick yesterday and I did something I've not done before and questioned the wisdom of it. I texted back they're 1/12? He went Lecce instead (at 2/11) which came in to put us back up to £45 profit whereas PSG failed to win last night. On our NOD which has been running for 4 months, we lost £105 on Saturday (thanks to my dumbass Liverpool pick - who didn't have to win) but got back £71 of it yesterday thanks to his Sporting Hee Hon and my Feyenoord. We are starting to fish in the European lower leagues now though. The additional £35 double on Ayr and Dunfermline which saved our losing treble stake on Saturday is probably the last of the really predictable nailed on stuff in Scotland, although I did have Celtic at 4/9 yesterday to complete a couple of trebles running over last week. Money in the bank just now should stay there if football betting is your thing. Edit: Rico, I'm not saying that Aberdeen won't win 2-0 and that Shinnie won't score first. I hope you're right but the chances of being able to predict both the correct score AND the first scorer are so remote and this is a massive market earner for the bookies. The "scorecast" returns are never worth anything like the double of correct score AND first scorer, which they don't allow you to put on these days (I think). A typical example of punters being sucked in by 80 or 125 to 1 whereas even by their own books, the returns on these type of doubles should be double plus. Having said that, I got a text from my PSG/Lecce mate with 15 minutes to go saying he was waiting on 2-1 Man U for a grand. I asked what was the stake/what was this coming on top of/is there a cash out available and he replied "Free bet with bet victor scorer time and result". Happy days but how often can we ever expect a punt like that to come in? If being serious about making money from the bookies is the goal, speculative stuff like correct scores and first scorers is pissing money away.
  9. Inspired by this thread, I just had my first rowies for at least a couple of years. Had to drop off my son and his mates at the airport and nipped into Chapel Street on the way home. Ross the bakers I think. Had a couple of quid in my hand as I'm sure one quid wasn't going to be enough these days but wasn't prepared for TWO FUCKING QUID for four! Had to eat one raw in the car whilst driving and it was shite. Got home, made a cup of tea and put butter on another and that didn't improve matters, it was shite an a. I'm with Peter Alliss on rowies now. They're fucking shite. Pretty sure Ross make the worst ever though.
  10. Souness detests Wenger. He couldn't disguise his contempt today. And he's 100% spot on. Ok, the defensive error wasn't quite a big enough stick to beat him with but in an age of posthumous plaudits and false platitudes, it's great that at least one person - and typically a Scot - has the balls to swim against the tide and say it how it is. Arsene has been finished for a decade, for reasons only obvious to the honest it appears.
  11. Mountain. Just finished on BBC4 just now. Narrated by Willem Dafoe. One of the best hours of TV ever made. Stunning. Elgindon would love it.
  12. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Has anyone got any in-play strategies? I'm starting to look at heavily-fancied teams who don't score in the first 10 or 15 minutes. My impression is that we can get more than double or three times the value (if they don't score early and it's still 0-0). Better still if the opposition score like Sunderland at Fulham last night.
  13. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    As I said at the start of the thread, finding value is the key. It doesn't matter what the bet is nor what the market is, it's the likelihood of the event that you're betting on happening against the odds offered that matters and this is always in the eye of the beholder, the punter. Bookies make mistakes and the best time to find them is when the first sites post up. I've long been advocating putting bets on early, up to a week in advance and whilst sometimes this can bite you as the odds improve towards kick off, more often than not you get much better returns. Examples; as I said we got Havant & Waterlooville at 1/4 this week and they came in to 1/7 before kick off. 1.25 isn't quite double 1.143 but it's a massive difference. Today we've got a more than double situation. I put Dunfermline in a number of bets at 4/11 at the start of the week. They're 1/7 now. 1.364 is a two and a half times bigger return which is why the £78.13 cash out offered on our £75 double isn't value, neither is the £37.44 being offered on another £35 double which includes Dunfermline, both doubles on Saturday games. When your Cash out offers are more than your stakes on bets that haven't run yet, you've done a job on the bookie, whatever the outcome.
  14. Bang on. Levein's is a face that can barely crack a smile. He is a checkpoint charlie. He put the dour into Scotsmen. Congratulations to McInnes and the team. My son was up from London but I couldn't face going last night. I used to despise supporters like me but I'm turning into the part timers I used to despise. I attended matches at Brechin, Montrose and Forfar the last three weeks instead. I still need football. Just not the brand that AFC have been serving up this season. I've been sickened too often.
  15. You obviously have news that he's passed away. Met him at Pittodrie once. Good cunt. A gentle soul. RIP.
  16. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Interesting one just now. Double on our fav German team KFC Uerdingen 05 who are 2-0 up away at 4/6 with Havant & Waterlooville tonight at 1/4. £40 double, cash out offered £67.21 at HT just now. Not taking it obviously as it's our "nailed on" double but those of you who aren't mathematically challenged will appreciate that 40 x 4/6 = 66.67, less than the offer. And it's not even in yet! So the offer is MORE than the original bet. Why? Simple. The algorithms are built to cover all eventualities and when Havant & W's odds have dropped so dramatically, from the 1/4 we got them at v. 1/7 now, of course they're going to want to minimise their losses. My other double running just now are Schweinfurt 05, also at 4/6 but with H & W at 1/7. 5-2 up after 66 mins, the cash out offer is 1.581 so there's no mystery about cash outs. It's all been written into the programming. The ONLY thing that matters is whether or not to use the option and that depends on the circumstances of each individual stake and is a decision for the punter only. How not having the option can benefit us is a ridiculous argument that only a thick cunt would try, or a party with a vested interest of course. Edit: Borussia M II get one back, now 1-2 v KFC U 05. Cash out now 61.73 after 60 minutes. Again, exactly what we might expect given that it only takes one goal from the home side to sink our £40 stake. No chance I'm cashing out ever on this double. KFC won 7-0 the first time I backed them 1-3 now, 68.07 offered.
  17. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Oh jesus. Do you believe everything you read? You know who wrote it yes? You know why they wrote it yes? Did you see any numbers to back up their propaganda?
  18. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    You can get off with your inability to back up what you said and your preposterous claims of knowledge you never had on the hat but you don't get off with it here. Your statement that "others know betting better than you and me" was an admission that there are, in fact, people on the planet that understand simple concepts that you can't grasp. Get back to your sofa and let real life continue to pass you by.
  19. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    This is because you have no critical thinking ability. You can't do what Steve Jobs demands. An offer is an offer. The worth or value of any bet is only determined when it is realised. They're not enticing us. They have been forced to provide offers because the first one did it and the average punter is an intellectual retard who gets off on the power of the cash out without ever knowing whether it represents a good deal or not. But the algorithms that make up the cash out offers aren't magic nor black art, as nothing ever is to anyone who is numerate. I wouldn't have cashed out that tenner for £1,500 or £2,500 when there was £7,400 on the table. That's taking the piss. But I would have at £4,000, as I'm guessing every moron would who deals in multiple accas and 740 to 1 shots. So the bookie didn't need to offer as much as they did but they don't sit there monitoring individual bets. It's an algorithm, naturally written in their favour but always reasonable enough not to lose face. McBookie's algorithms are much tighter than bet365's for their cash-outs so they will lose less over the course of a year than 365 will, even proportionately as their revenue is so much smaller.
  20. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    You contested something I said. You came on here and took issue with what I wrote. I asked you to explain yourself. Now I am certain that you are unable to. You're not "arguing" anything. All you've said is that cash out is "terrible value". This is nonsense. It makes no sense. Laying part of our likely winnings to recover stakes on the original bet is what betting exchanges are all about. The cash out options which appear in front of 99% of punters in the UK on their non-exchange sites is what we are talking about and how can they ever be classed as terrible value without giving an example, numerically? You argued that the bet the NE mannie cashed out wasn't worth 4,950 but you fail to say where you get this opinion of yours from? Why would your opinion lean towards what anyone says without doing the due diligence for yourself? That is insane. This is how governments run countries. They bank on our laziness and our stupidity. There's a lot more you could say? You can't even back up what you said about a very simple concept. Worked in the industry? Fuck off. Nobody this stupid ever gets near a numeracy-based industry. You know more than you let on? Official secrets is it? You speak shite, as per the very first post to you on this thread, the one which you started by coming over oh so clever and now oh so secret. Idiot.
  21. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about. Do you use betting exchanges yourself? Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.
  22. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    It's not insults. I said that your points were stupid. Either they are or they are not. I even pointed out why they were stupid and I went further, I told you where they had come from. On the contrary, I invested time trying to help you, to get you to understand. Here's a quote from Steve Jobs. You probably use one of his products: - "That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains". So let's cut the bullshit and let's think clean. The bullshit is your pride and it is once again your fragility in self-confidence and your lack of intellect but at least half of them over on the hat are thicker than you are so take comfort from this fact. It's not my fault that you struggle to comprehend. Ok, I could be gentler with you but this is Aberdeen, we say it how it is. Trust me, I could be much more coorse too but your failing to grasp simple concepts and repeating something that someone told you doesn't cut any ice. As a pro punter yourself, you could have at least used numbers and scenarios to bolster your argument but none were forthcoming. In the spirit of keeping it simple, the bet wasn't worth £4,950 at that time. It wasn't "worth" anything. The only transaction had been a £10 stake and on anything above 2 or 3/1 shots, let alone accas and 740/1 shots like this, the bets lose the vast majority of the time. The bookie didn't "make any extra". The bookie lost 4,950, for a tenner! There was a chance he might have made a tenner if Man U didn't win, and if the other six stakes hadn't too but we live in the age of the cash-out option and as I have proved this season, it has worked for us. But my example is irrelevant. Big data informs us that it works for punters and it works against the bookies, thanks to the first bookie who introduced it. The bookies who tell you that cashing out is good for them are dishonest people by nature and why would they give you free advice anyway, unlike me?
  23. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    The stupidest of all his many stupid points was the guy who took out £4,950 for a £10 stake wasn't getting "value" and that the bookie cheated him. For sure Man U would've been less than 1/2 at the time but who would've stuck 5k on them then? The punter didn't. He put a tenner on, which multiplied by six successes turned his £10 into 500/1 if he wanted to take it. Will he be kicking himself for not holding out for £7,400? Will he fuck. Will the bookies be clapping themselves on the backs for saving themselves £2,400? Will they fuck. They just lost a 500/1 punt. For every cash out (like this) they win on, there's many more that they lose.
  24. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    Rico, I've cashed out twice with BB, costing us £6 or £7 cos they both went on to win anyway. It was the 88th minute when MK Dons and Pawlett were battering Blackburn at 1-2 the first one (and my team were only 1 up at the time) and just before Chelsea scored their 2nd on Sunday. So it cost us but no regrets for realising the bets when I did and taking out the risk of two losing stakes. That's the only twice we've done it in 17 or 18 bets. I'm still 100% since our first double and last nights loss came after 5 straight winners. I'm going to bet a big chunk of our £90+ profit this Saturday on BB's Monaco and my Liverpool. And I've put more money than we've got in the bank on our "nailed on treble" with my mate who picked Dunfermline, plus a big stake on our communal picks, Ayr and Dunfermline. Just a funny time of the season though which I hopefully won't be saying I should've known after Saturday!
  25. rocket_scientist

    Betting

    The cash out option returns more money to the punter on bets that went on to lose than it saves in them cashing out before the bet goes on to win anyway. That's a fact. Rhetoric such as short term gains and longer term losses when discussing the cash out concept illustrates a critical thinking breakdown. That's a fact too. You also fail to comprehend that every bet has no value until it wins. Every bet is a stake lost, until it is realised either as a winning bet on completion or cashed out before completion. It has no "value" ever, other than to the punter who can decide whether or not to take the money early. Sounds to me like a gullible perennially-losing punter has had his head stuffed full of mince.
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