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Tuesday 26th November 2024 - kick-off 7.45pm

Scottish Premiership - Hibernian v Aberdeen

RicoS321

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Everything posted by RicoS321

  1. Aye, definitely Considine for Ball. Ball should be cover for Shinnie and Ferguson, not the centre backs. Considine is comfortable enough on his wrong side and should slot in fine. Also, with Lowe going back in January (although he has indicated he'd like to stay) then we need Considine getting minutes. Devlin has a foot injury, which apparently has made him doubtful for the final, so I'm assuming it's not hugely serious but a few weeks out or something.
  2. Decent game. Some good spells. Terrible defending for their goal, but not indicative of the overall performance. Forrest been excellent, Armstrong too. McKenna not done anything wrong, looks like he's been playing there for years. Paterson hoop at right back, but can probably be excused given he's a striker these days. Christie playing like he did at the beginning of last season - some great play littered with giving it away in stupid places, but overall good.
  3. Gazza charged with sexual assault. Hall of fame awaits.
  4. Brilliant. Top scamming happycamper.
  5. Cheers min. Great question towards the end: "What do you think of Labour council's proposal for a rail link from the city to the airport?" Seeing if we're still paying attention.
  6. RicoS321

    Betting

    Twitter? Fuck me, come on min. Everyone knows Mark McGhee's wikipedia page is where the knowledge lies.
  7. RicoS321

    Betting

    Nah, not really min. You did say that nobody should use cash out. Pretty much word for word. It's that assertion that made me take note in the first place. I thought you were going to be able to tell me some alternative that I could use instead of cash out after already placing my bet on 365/PP or wherever. Mainly because, as only an occasional gambler, I feel like I could be taken for the mug that I am on an exchange as I'm not adequately knowledgeable. It's okay though, I don't care.
  8. RicoS321

    Betting

    By "laying them off" and "effectively took my stake out" what do you mean? If I have £10 on the dons who are winning 2-0 with 35 minutes to go. I'm projected to win £15, but cash out is offering me just £12.50 at this point. I'm convinced that Shinnie is going to get sent off and we'll capitulate as I'm at the game and in a position to judge it better (in my opinion, obviously). Right now, I'm guaranteed £12.50 (by taking the offer), correct? (rhetorical) I've made the decision to cash out so I need to get a better return than £12.50 by going elsewhere (and not cashing out)? Or are you saying that if I put £0.50 on the dons to win then and £1.50 on the dons to draw elsewhere then I will very likely get better odds than 29/1 for the opposition win and 29/3 for the draw (obviously I'd have to make both bets)? Do you have a formula for this type of calculation? I can do this, but it only tests my odds: (-a+(a x Oa x Wa)) + (-b+(b x Ob x Wb)) +(-c+(c x Oc x Wc)) >= Z - a where a is stake 1, b is stake 2 and c is stake 3. Oa/b/c is odds and Wa/b/c is true or false win = 1 lose = 0 Z is cashout winnings for my example: Stake1 wins: (-10+ (10 x 3/2 x 1)) + (-0.5 + (0.50 x 29/1 x 0)) + (-1.5 + (0 x 29/3 x 0)) = £3 > £2.50 Stake2 wins: (-10+ (10 x 3/2 x 0)) + (-0.5 + (0.50 x 29/1 x 1)) + (-1.5 + (0 x 29/3 x 0)) = £2.50 >= £2.50 Stake3 wins: (-10+ (10 x 3/2 x 0)) + (-0.5 + (0.50 x 29/1 x 0)) + (-1.5 + (0 x 29/3 x 1)) = £2.50 >= £2.50 Am I right in thinking that we never really look for certain odds, we simply test those odds? In the above, I simply add the odds for a draw and a win from all my bookies and if all 3 stakes return true then I put the additional two bets on the draw and the loss and leave my win bet with the existing bookie? Thus I have returned greater than or equal to my cashout regardless of result. Interesting stuff min. I like it. How likely is it that those odds will exist elsewhere though, is it even close? Or is cash out always easier because they base the cashout on other bookies' odds on the draw and loss? What I mean is, is the cash out just an enticement for the uneasy gambler (so gives a shite return) or a is it aimed at the professional by calculating the other odds in the market and straying little either side of that?
  9. RicoS321

    Betting

    How does this work then minijc? If I have a £10 bet with Bet365, I can sell that bet on an exchange? Or do I have to place my bet on the exchange in the first place?
  10. Just to confirm, I assumed it was a joke. Anyway, second last of the Informer on the BBC last night. That is one top quality program. When they get it right, the BBC is top class.
  11. Aye, ditch Russell for McGinn and move Armstrong forward. Forrest has been the pishest player in pretty much every Scotland game he's played in. Can't seem to play international fitba for some reason. Paterson better than Fletcher, but I agree that McLeish will probably play him.
  12. You don't know anyone who has more than about 40 points? They're pretty much handing them out to anyone, you'll easily get a ticket if you want one.
  13. You watched the last episode before the first three? That's an interesting tactic, I might give that a go.
  14. RicoS321

    Betting

    How does that work like? You win the game so you get banned?
  15. RicoS321

    Betting

    I know that, but that ignores the bets where the punter ignored the cash out offered though. How are those measured and are they included in the calculation of success?
  16. RicoS321

    Betting

    Cash out is clearly an excellent option if you know when to use it. I think it's very difficult to argue otherwise. Whether the bookies lose less money by having it as an option or not is really neither here nor there. As a tool it's entirely agnostic of that. If you're not in attendance at a match (or event you're betting on) then - simply due to lack of information - you're probably equally as likely to lose money by sticking with a soon-to-be-losing bet than you are to lose an increment of money you could have won by cashing out. It's something that bookies and traders will not have data on (because it didn't happen) and so their statistics will be flawed. It's all safe to say that there a lot of traders who know fuck all about anything just as in any other line of work.
  17. I've finished it. It turns out that the little boy is gay in the end and he dies of prison-aids. I hope I haven't given away too much.
  18. Surely this just gives McLeish the opportunity to correct his mistakes so far and save face a little. Play a back line of Tierney, Devlin, McKenna and Robertson and use the injury excuse to switch Tierney to right back like Strachan did previously. Still a very strong back 4 with two good attacking full backs. ----------------McGregor----------------- Tierney---Devlin---McKenna--Robertson ------------McGregor----Armstrong------ -Fraser----------Russell-----------GMS-- ----------------Paterson------------------ Sorted.
  19. The Sinner on Netflix might be a bit easier for you though.... It's pretty good actually.
  20. You guys must be too thick for Man In The High Castle.
  21. Same as Friday. Perhaps Anderson in for Wilson.
  22. Nonsense. If she's desperate, you'll get a good few months of top class BJs and biffing. Once that's over you ditch her again and she'll hate you forever. I'd have him back in January.
  23. I'd take Collum over Muir any day. Shocking decision for the hun aside, Collum much improved over the last couple of years. Keeps up with the game and doesn't flash the cards nearly as much as he used to. Muir is a clueless fanny who regularly loses control of games.
  24. Away to sign a new deal too. He was good for us, and left a better player than when he arrived with more experience. We've basically enhanced the value of one of their assets. Difficult to tell if it was worth it.
  25. I've just realised that they appealed on the grounds of mistaken identity. It makes complete sense now. They were allowed to make their appeal because of that. The fact that it was patently not mistaken identity meant it couldn't be overturned. They've just spent money on the appeal to make a point. Fair enough. The SFA panel not in the wrong then it seems.
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