daytripping Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 Some strong trends for the grand national and applying them will give us a far better chance of getting the winner than not. 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or above. 11 of the last 14 were 9 or 10 year old. 1970 was the last time a horse won this without previously having won at at least 3 miles. may sound obvious but you need a consistently good jumper. Horses with 3 or 4 career falls are best avoided. previous years Irish grand national does well ( Niche market ). prominent racers do well. last year was a freak year with the first 4 all carrying 11 stone or more...as you can see from the list below that is tough to do so preference is given to horses carrying less than 11 stone. only 1 horse that won at cheltenham has won since 1961. Year Horse Age Wgt Trainer Jockey SP 2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0 Miss V Williams Liam Treadwell 100/1 2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 D E Pipe Timmy Murphy 7/1JF 2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 Gordon Elliott R M Power 33/1 2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 Martin Brassil N P Madden 11/1 2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F 2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1 2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1 2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1 2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1 2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1 1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1 1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F 1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1 1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 T A Casey M A Fitzgerald 7/1f I am eliminating from my calculations the top 10 in the weights abertas run...madison du berlais..notre pere...tarania...our vic...mon mome...black apalachi....joe lively...vic venturi...comply or die going through the others in betting order big fella thanks...too young. tricky trickster....too young backstage...too young the package...too young war of attrition....too old NICHE MARKET....BET @ 27 STATE OF PLAY..BET @ 27 arbor supreme....too young SNOWY MORNING...BET 27 - TOP TIP character building...has tried 4m plus and seemed to not stay. bally holland...doubtfull stayer MY WILL...BET @ 46 DONT PUSH IT @ 50 chief dan george...won at cheltenham maljimar...not won 3m irish raptor...too old possol...too young dream alliance...poor jumper hello bud...too old whinstone boy ...needs soft ground cant buy time....too young razor royale....too young king johns castle...too old CLOUDY LANE...BET 75 iris de balme...form ? silver birch....too old palypso de creek....too young le beau bal...too young roulez cool....too young air force one...too young erics charm....too old ballyfitz....makes mistakes abbrybraney...makes mistakes CERIUM...BET @ 140...was 4th last year as an 8yo and now a 9yo and on the same mark...hasnt won over 3m but cannot argue with last years 4th. offshore account....makes mistakes cane brake...too old joe lively ...too old these are all the horses that are shortest odds in the race as the winner is likely to be in there somewhere. I have backed the above horses win only on betfair and plan to lay each horse in running at roughly 5% of the bet price...obviously leaving a decent profit if catching the winner. some of the bets are carrying up to 11 stone 5lb but as I am trying to lay in running they could trade short even if the weight does tell in the end. All the horses are 9 or 10 year old but wouldnt dismiss 11 year olds if you have strong reasons for liking them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgowdon Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 Good post. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizer Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 Fuck me I might actually bet on a decent horse this time rather than picking one by its name.......saying that I would have went for your pick snowy morning as it is a snowy morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave_min Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowalski Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please? Dame Kelly Holmes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizer Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please? Lee Mare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick sheep Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please? Ask Hebrew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytripping Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Me likey vely muchy! Sorry I should hve added that this is not my info but I've been following this chap for a long time and his info is second to none, he puts in 12 hour days and is a pro at this game. If you're not into laying horses in running then just pick your favourite horse and bet each way, I'd say Snowy Morning and State of play are my top tips, bet each way on both, goes without saying that people should only bet what they can afford to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldie03 Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 Ask Hebrew. Hoi what's that supposed to mean!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick sheep Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 Hoi what's that supposed to mean!!!!!!!!! I've not been able to look him in the eye since Stark's Park. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowalski Posted April 9, 2010 Share Posted April 9, 2010 McCoy on Don't Push It worth a look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeeBass Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 My four are Comply Or Die because T.J.Murphy is my favourite jockey and been on him the last two years when winning and finishing second. Don`t Push It with McCoy as I want to see the great man win it one day. Eric`s Charm as W.Hutchinson has won me a lot of money in the past and finally Character Building due to the fact there`s a woman riding it. Only other time I`ve picked the winner was when I had a £1 on Red Marauder at (33/1) in 2001. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowalski Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 I'm on State of Play and Don't Push It. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyBiscuit Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 Niche Market, Cloudy Lane, My Will and Don't Push It for me. My sister in law had a wee baby girl last night which is fantastic news obviously. My brother phoned me an hour ago and said, "if you're at a bookies today, can you put £10 on Don't Push It for me because the wife had to have a C-Section last night" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick sheep Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 My three fallers are; Character Building, Irish Raptor, Hello Bud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyBiscuit Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 Don't Push It wins! Get in!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 I backed Don't Push It at 40/1 Only put £2 on it though :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowalski Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 Yes, £270!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytripping Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 Yes, £270!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I told you my man was good, winner and a place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyBiscuit Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 I told you my man was good, winner and a place. Cheers for the tips! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowalski Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 I had state of play as well, but to win! Cheers for the tips daytripping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytripping Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 Snowy Morning was travelling well and finished 6th, left it too late though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytripping Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 Big Fella thanks and Tricky Trickster would be worth an early punt for next year, big fella will be 9 next year and Tricky 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgowdon Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Any patter for this year gents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyBiscuit Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Any patter for this year gents? Silver By Nature, was at 40s at the start of the year, is in now to 14s. Not my tip I'd like to add, but a friend of a friend sort of thing. He told me about it in January and is supposedly having a very good year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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