D1pLa Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Pinched from afc chat but it makes sense. Sorry if it's already been posted elsewhere on here. Why Scotland doesn’t need Rangers Scottish politics seems to be having a wee holiday this week. The First Minister has a little chat with the Scottish Secretary over the referendum, deciding nothing, the Unionists demand “answers” to questions on a completely different subject, Jim Sillars witters on about something or other in yet another bitter rage about how well the SNP’s doing without him, and the Scotsman quietly admits that some of its previous scare stories (this time the ones about Scottish membership of the EU) were cobblers and hopes nobody notices. In other words, business as usual. The reason everyone’s putting out a skeleton service operating on auto-pilot is, of course, that they’re all transfixed with the goings-on at Ibrox. And rightly so, because it’s an enormous story which reaches out and touches the entire population in a way that politics almost never does. For fans of Rangers, their entire world has fallen in. For fans of other clubs it’s either hilarious, or a time for rising above petty rivalries and showing solidarity with their fellow supporters, ie it’s secretly hilarious. For Rangers employees it’s a worry, for battered wives, social services and hard-pressed A&E staff it’s a blessing and for booze retailers it’s a catastrophe. We also can’t ignore the possible political consequences. For decades Rangers FC has served as a weekly indoctrination service for the defenders of the Union – you can’t spend a large proportion of your leisure time waving Union Jacks and singing “Rule Britannia” with thousands of fellow loyal subjects of Her Majesty (she of the Revenue and Customs) without it having some sort of effect on your worldview. But for the media, which for months on end has largely turned a blind eye to the scale of Rangers’ problems and left the blogosphere to pick up the slack, it’s a time of panic. If Rangers fall they’ll probably take half the circulation (and pagecount) of the Daily Record with them, and the tabloid media in general is desperate for the club to survive in something as close to its present form as possible. So the story, told loudly and relentlessly, is that Scottish football couldn’t live by Celtic alone. Rangers, it’s insisted over and over, are vital to the continued health – nay, the very survival – of the domestic game. Their friendly, loveable fans, we hear, are the lifeblood of every other club in the league as they turn up twice a season to swell the stands and consume the Scotch pies and Bovril that pay the wages of the home side’s gangly centre-half. The TV riches that pour into SPL coffers would vanish too, without the juicy prize of four Old Firm games a year to tempt Sky into opening their gold-plated chequebook. All in all, take Rangers away and you might as well padlock the turnstiles from Inverness Caley Thistle to Queen Of The South and call it a day. But is it true? No. It’s a load of balls. This blog loves nothing more than a good delve in some stats, so we’ve been wading waist-deep in them this week. And the conclusion we’ve reached is that the collapse of Rangers would in all probability be the best thing to happen to Scottish football this century. Along with its Parkhead twin, the club is a giant vampire squid choking the Scottish game to death, and history strongly suggests that Scottish football can ONLY flourish if one or both of the Gruesome Twosome is in poor health. Firstly, let’s look at some of the myths. We’re told that the smaller clubs need the influx of cash generated by home games against the Old Firm every year. But how much is that really worth? Under the current SPL structure, there’s no guaranteed number of such fixtures each season. Aberdeen, for example, got just three last year (two against Rangers, one against Celtic), because they were in the bottom six of the league at the time of the “split”. In season 2010/11, the Dons had an average attendance at Pittodrie of just under 9,000. For the three Old Firm games, the average attendance was 13,378. That’s 4,504 extra punters through the gates per match, or a total for the season of 13,512. In other words, having Rangers and Celtic come to visit was effectively worth the equivalent of about 1.5 extra home games a year. (1.52, if you want to be picky.) Now, for a club on a tight budget like Aberdeen, 1.5 extra home games a season is a handy bit of cash. If we assume that the average spectator spends £40 on their ticket, programme, refreshments and whatnot, it’s over half a million quid in (gross) revenue. But it’s not the difference between life and death. It could be achieved just as easily by an extended cup run or qualification for Europe – things which are significantly more likely to happen if you take one or both of the Old Firm out of the picture. Indeed, just a modest amount of progress in Europe can effortlessly eclipse a season’s worth of Rangers and Celtic ties. In season 2007/08 Aberdeen reached the last 32 of the Europa League, which is very much the poor relation of UEFA’s club competitions compared to the cash cow of the Champions’ League. Getting to the last 32 of it isn’t exactly spectacular success, but it nevertheless brought the Dons four extra home games that season, which drew a total of 74,767 paying customers. Alert viewers will have noticed that even this humble adventure was therefore worth almost SIX TIMES as much to the Pittodrie club as an entire season of Old Firm fixtures, and that’s before you factor in the not-inconsiderable matter of extra TV money and participation bonuses, which would surely boost that multiplier to 10 or more. (It’s perhaps also worth noting that even the first-round first-leg tie against the unglamorous FC Dnipro of Ukraine attracted a larger crowd than any of 2010/11?s games against Rangers or Celtic, despite having thousands fewer away fans.) From this we can see that if a team like Aberdeen qualified for Europe just fractionally more often, as as result of the demise of one or both of the Old Firm making places more easily attainable – maybe once every five or six years – the rewards could easily eclipse the losses. But there’s more to it than that, because the Europa League jaunt had a knock-on effect on domestic attendances too. When Hearts came to Pittodrie in the middle of the Europa run, the gate was 14,000. The corresponding fixture in 2010/11, at roughly the same time of year, saw just 9,100 show up. In other words, a tiny glimpse of success saw attendance over 50% higher – exactly the same sort of boost delivered in a normal season by the visits of the Old Firm. Even two months after the Dons were knocked out of the tournament by Bayern Munich, a home game against Falkirk could pull a crowd of 11,484 – a comparable late-season match (vs Hibernian) in 2010/11 managed just 7,400. Of course, you could argue that the higher attendances in 2007/08 were a result of a better season in general (Aberdeen finished 4th that year, compared to 9th in 2011). But then, that’s the point – fans are much more likely to turn up to watch games in a competition where their team has a fighting chance of achieving something than in a league where they’re just making up the numbers. Take one or both of the Old Firm out of the league and you instantly make it far more competitive, which makes it far more exciting, which makes it far more attractive for people to come and watch. This isn’t just an idle theory. Within living memory, Scottish football has actually experienced an extended period where one or other of the Old Firm was in dire straits, and the result was a far more competitive league with substantially bigger attendances for the non-OF clubs. While this era is often dismissed as a brief Alex-Ferguson-inspired flicker in the mid-80s, it in fact lasted for almost 20 years. The first phase was around the creation of the old Scottish Premier Division, running from the tail end of the 1970s and right through the 1980s, before David Murray and his bottomless wallet turned up at Ibrox around the turn of the decade. Rangers were in a woeful state at the time, winning the league just once in a 10-season spell between 1979 and 1988, and with home crowds at Ibrox regularly dropping below 10,000. (One 1979 league game against Partick Thistle brought fewer than 2,000 loyal Gers fans to the stadium, and no, that’s not a typo – we really mean TWO thousand.) But it wasn’t just Celtic who took advantage – in four of the other nine seasons of that decade the league title went to the smaller clubs (Aberdeen three times, Dundee Utd once), and it would have been five if not for the most infamous last-day implosion in Scottish football history robbing Hearts of the 1985/86 flag. In other words, in a 10-team division fully 50% of the participants were mounting realistic challenges for the title – a feat probably never replicated anywhere else in the world in the history of football. The Scottish Premier Division was almost certainly the most competitive club league on the face of the planet, and such a healthy state of affairs was reflected on the broader stage. Aberdeen won the European Cup-Winners’ Cup (with an all-Scottish team) in 1983, defeating Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to secure the trophy, and also beat that year’s European Cup champions SV Hamburg to join the illustrious list of winners of the Super Cup. The next season Dundee United got to the semi-final of the European Cup (with the Dons making the Cup-Winners’ Cup semis), and three years later Jim McLean’s men reached the final of the UEFA Cup, knocking out Barcelona along the way but losing the final 2-1 to IFK Goteborg. The nature of Old Firm weakness changed between the late 1980s and the mid-1990s. David Murray had arrived at Rangers and was pouring money into the club, attracting big-name England internationals with the promise of European competition after English clubs were banned in the aftermath of Heysel. But while Rangers grew stronger Celtic weakened, and the Parkhead side hovered on the brink of bankruptcy for several years before being rescued by Fergus McCann in 1994. As a result, the Scottish Premier Division remained competitive. Although that sounds a daft assertion in the wake of Rangers’ nine-in-a-row of league triumphs (1989-97), the fact remains that four different teams finished in second place over the period, with Celtic not managing to do it until 1996. Rangers’ average margin of victory in the league race during the nine-season run was under 7 points, which contrasts sharply with the typical modern-day gap between the Old Firm and the rest of 30+ points. Indeed, over the entire 22-season lifespan of the old Premier Division, the Old Firm (in either order) took the top two spots just seven times, and five of those comprised the first two and last three seasons of the competition. Over a 17-year stretch in between, the Old Firm secured the 1 and 2 positions just twice. (Celtic-Rangers in 1978/79, and Rangers/Celtic in 1986/87.) In nine of the 22 seasons, the Old Firm couldn’t even both get into the top 3. The SPL era, on the other hand, has seen Tweedlehun and Tweedlydee cosily slice up first and second place in 12 of its 13 seasons (the only blip being Hearts pipping Rangers to the runner-up spot by a single point in 2005/06). Where the Scottish Premier Division was the most competitive league in the world, the SPL is now the least competitive, and therefore one of the least healthy. (During the life of the old SPD the Scotland international side qualified for World Cups in 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1998, and for European Championships in 1992 and 1996. Since the advent of the SPL in 1999, with the Old Firm hurling most of their money at foreign players, the national side hasn’t reached a single tournament finals.) Of course, the game has changed since the Premier Division. The SPL, Sky TV, Champions League and Bosman have all conspired – entirely by design – to make life harder for the smaller teams and cement the dominance of the bigger ones who can command higher TV audiences. Even this, though, is a slightly misleading picture. Media pundits are fond of pointing out that Sky’s interest in the SPL would plummet if it no longer had Old Firm games to offer its subscribers, and this is undoubtedly true. What nobody points out, however, is that the OF hog so much of the Sky money for themselves that even a massively-reduced deal from terrestrial broadcasters would be more evenly distributed in a notional post-Rangers world, and so would likely end up with the smaller teams seeing fairly similar amounts of money to what they get now. By way of illustration of the sort of sums involved, we examined the 2010 public accounts of Motherwell, who finished 6th in the SPL in 2010/11. Their total income from TV and radio was just over £1.2m. We’d imagine the bulk of that came from the Sky deal, but some will also be from elsewhere, eg the BBC rights to highlights packages and radio coverage. Arbitrarily, then, let’s say Sky is worth £1m a year to Motherwell, out of the total £16m that Sky pay the SPL every year. A typical home game at the average 2010/11 Fir Park attendance of 5,660 will generate something very roughly in the region of £225,000. If Sky disappeared and nobody took up the live-TV rights at all, the club would need to either play four extra home games OR attract an extra 1300 fans to each game to compensate, OR reduce its annual wage bill of a startling £3.3m, or some combination of the three. In a more competitive league with more chance of European football, that’s hardly an impossible dream – for reference, in 2007/08 when Motherwell finished 3rd their average attendance was around 1000 higher, at 6,600. The further 300 extra was achieved as recently as 2004/05. But even beyond that, the data in the early part of this feature (which is broadly reflected for all other Scottish sides, not just Aberdeen, but we’d be here all day if we were to list every one) proves that the crucial core principle remains the same – a team with a better chance of even the mildest definition of success, eg qualifying for Europe or reaching a domestic cup final, will see a large upshoot in its attendance figures, and more than enough to compensate for the less-frequent visits of Rangers/Celtic fans or a drop in TV money. And the prime driver of that increased prospect of success is the weakness (or absence) of at least one of the Old Firm. For all the commentators asserting that Scottish football would collapse – either in footballing terms or economic ones – should Rangers FC not make it out of season 2011/12 alive, the numbers simply don’t add up. Quote
fatjim Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 That doesn't mention the change from 2 points for a win to 3 points which was a major factor in the old firm dominance as well. If Rangers were no longer a team then the fan base would perhaps still go to games albeit a local team. You never know Partick Thistle might gain the odd fuckwit. Quote
mizer Posted February 16, 2012 Author Report Posted February 16, 2012 The last one has been deleted Quote
Penfold Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 That doesn't mention the change from 2 points for a win to 3 points which was a major factor in the old firm dominance as well. If Rangers were no longer a team then the fan base would perhaps still go to games albeit a local team. You never know Partick Thistle might gain the odd fuckwit. The St Mirren chairman has clocked onto this. Have seen comments from him that they would hope to get increased attendances if the huns didn't exist. Hopefully more chairmen realise this too. Quote
fatjim Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 The St Mirren chairman has clocked onto this. Have seen comments from him that they would hope to get increased attendances if the huns didn't exist. Hopefully more chairmen realise this too. Exactly when you consider the amount of huns there are in every town all over Scotland. They aren't just going to stop watching football. granted a lot of them will probably follow an English team but there will be some who just need that football fix. Makes sense to support your local team. Apart from Celtic of course considering where they play is quite a big hun area. Quote
BobbyBiscuit Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 The arguments about the Europa League are all well and fine, but with more qualifiers to play and only a couple of teams a year in Europe, where and how do the rest make up the shortfall? There's been no mention of the quality of the football and how appalling it is, the admission prices being ridiculously overblown as it is... these things are the over-riding factors on whether folk go to the football now and they're in danger of getting worse and that's the case whether the vermin live or die. If the huns are in the league or not, get the admission prices down and get more people through the gates. Quote
fatjim Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 The arguments about the Europa League are all well and fine, but with more qualifiers to play and only a couple of teams a year in Europe, where and how do the rest make up the shortfall? There's been no mention of the quality of the football and how appalling it is, the admission prices being ridiculously overblown as it is... these things are the over-riding factors on whether folk go to the football now and they're in danger of getting worse and that's the case whether the vermin live or die. If the huns are in the league or not, get the admission prices down and get more people through the gates. It all comes down to the prices at the gate. It's greed that has driven them up (mainly greed by the old firm because they usually fill their stadiums). Clubs must see that a reduced price will get more through the gates. The old firm seem to set the bar though for gate prices throughout the league. You can't have one team charge £20 odd when eveyone else has reduced the price to say £10 so the price has to stay around about the same throughout the league. In saying that Hearts did didn't they? Quote
Penfold Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 The arguments about the Europa League are all well and fine, but with more qualifiers to play and only a couple of teams a year in Europe, where and how do the rest make up the shortfall? Well there will be a wider mix of Scottish teams getting into Europe, so more clubs will get chances in these games. The amount of qualifiers teams have to play isn't going to go up because Rangers are no longer there. They have as much a negative impact on our coefficient these days as Gretna or Queen of the South had. For the ones who don't finish in European spots a Hibs, Dundee United or Aberdeen team in Europe, or pushing for European places, can take thousands of fans to their grounds instead of the 4000 huns. A cup and/or European run puts a good feeling right through the support with more fans turning up to both home and away fixtures. The interest from TV companies to show non-old Firm Scottish Football on TV is clearly there. The next 4 Aberdeen games are on Sky/ESPN and 3 of the 4 Scottish Cup Quarter Finals are on BBC/Sky. Only 2 out of these 6 matches involve Celtic. None involve Rangers. Yep the TV money will reduce without Old Firm matches, but who is to say the viewing figures for the other matches won't increase when people see how competitive the league is (outside Celtic for a few years) and tune in to see clubs who are challenging for European spots. Ticket prices are a problem in Scottish Football. But as you mentioned that is a problem whether Rangers exist or not. Quote
BobbyBiscuit Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Well there will be a wider mix of Scottish teams getting into Europe, so more clubs will get chances in these games. Who is to say that one or two teams get a good run, make a few bob and spend it wisely so it's the same side/s making the impact in Europe each year? What then for the rest? It's an entirely plausible scenario. Personally, I think the game is so low at the minute that there isn't a chance in hell of any of our teams making any kind of impact in Europe. Hopefully that changes of course. The interest from TV companies to show non-old Firm Scottish Football on TV is clearly there. The next 4 Aberdeen games are on Sky/ESPN and 3 of the 4 Scottish Cup Quarter Finals are on BBC/Sky. Only 2 out of these 6 matches involve Celtic. None involve Rangers. Yep the TV money will reduce without Old Firm matches, but who is to say the viewing figures for the other matches won't increase when people see how competitive the league is (outside Celtic for a few years) and tune in to see clubs who are challenging for European spots. Ticket prices are a problem in Scottish Football. But as you mentioned that is a problem whether Rangers exist or not. They were contracted to show a set amount of games outwith the final itself. They're not doing it because they think Motherwell v Aberdeen or Hearts v St Mirren is going to make them a lot of cash. Lets face it, Sky would have been beelin' that the huns were knocked out. There goes the chance of their dream final/semi/quarter. It's not enough for the league to be competitive as i said the other day. There has to be quality. The Championship is competitive, they say the most competitive in Europe. Have you ever watched it? It's not great. Far from it and I generally turn the channel if it's on. Just because a league is competitive doesn't mean it is automatically attractive to outsiders. Maybe some would tune in, but I'd be amazed if it was enough to get our clubs a decent wedge. Quote
Kowalski Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 1629: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "Daniel [Cousin] was at the training ground this morning as I addressed the players. We can't say for sure at the moment if that will go through - that's still under review." 1627: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "We had a good productive meeting with Ally and we will work together to find a solution. So from that you can assume Ally will be involved in any changes in the playing staff." 1626: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "We believe the debt to be £24m but some of it is deferred. We're confident in what we've seen that we can achieve a succesful result and that Rangers will continue as a football club." 1621: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "When the club was taken over it had a substantial contingent debt - as matters have unfolded the levels of losses have not been funded by the normal course of trade. The insolvency of the club has resulted from those losses of funding." 1617: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "The reason it [tax] hasn't been paid is that it hasn't been sent. They were deductions that were made at source that were fundamentally used to fund the club. It's something we need to look into. We have to carry out a full investigation into what has happened but what we can say is that the business has been loss-making." 1613: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "We have a statutory right to act on the behalf of the creditors. We would have liked to have found a solution before going down the administration route. We hope a CVA can be achieved. In layman's terms we are hopeful that a settlement can be reached. We are wholly confident that Rangers will continue as a football club and will not face liquidation." 1611: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "The immediate task was to get the weekend's game to happen. This morning I spoke to Ally McCoist. It will be next week at least before anything is decided in this area. We will be making the February payroll obligations in the normal manner and in full." 1608: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "We have a statutory right to act on the beahlf of the creditors. It will be conducted to the highest professional standards. I would like to pay tribute to the fans, players and staff of Rangers Football Club. There will be a full account of the club's financial affairs and we will publish that report." 1605: RANGERS PRESS CONFERENCE - LIVE Rangers administrators Paul Clark and David Whitehouse on Rangers situation: "It's a very early stage of the process. Craig Whyte is not associated in any way with Duff and Phelps." Quote
mizer Posted February 16, 2012 Author Report Posted February 16, 2012 The £24m from ticketus has not went through the accounts. Therefore it cannot have been used to pay Whyte his £18m and become a secured creditor. Quote
TENEMENTFUNSTER Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Alex Salmond is an appalling cunt. Quote
BobbyBiscuit Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Alex Salmond is an appalling cunt. Yes. Quote
capitalsharpie Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Alex Salmond is an appalling cunt. Aye, because out of this whole debacle, it is Alex Salmond who is the to be most reviled. Quote
BobbyBiscuit Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Aye, because out of this whole debacle, it is Alex Salmond who is the to be most reviled. Doesn't mean he isn't one though, does it? Quote
TENEMENTFUNSTER Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Aye, because out of this whole debacle, it is Alex Salmond who is the to be most reviled. Don't be so facile. There's plenty to revile and laugh about but to suggest the 1st Minister should begin with saying we all depend on the survival of these cunts and that they should get a pass of some sort is disgraceful. But hey, let's no criticise sainted Alex eh? I guess you support his view here? Quote
BobbyBiscuit Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Don't be so facile. There's plenty to revile and laugh about but to suggest the 1st Minister should begin with saying we all depend on the survival of these cunts and that they should get a pass of some sort is disgraceful. But hey, let's no criticise sainted Alex eh? I guess you support his view here? His "Vibrant football club" bollocks really took things too far. So the sectarian issues that have faced the city have fuck all to do with this "vibrant football club"? Fuck off Salmond, slimey cunt. Quote
capitalsharpie Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Doesn't mean he isn't one though, does it? Compared to other politicians like say, Alistair Darling Gordon Brown Micheal Forsythe Tony Blair George Osbourne David Cameron George Foulkes Ian Davidson Compared to the above list of scum bags, what has Alex Salmond done to incur your displeasure? Is it the fact that the SNP are actually delivering on manifesto promises and have a cogent vision and confident front bench, or would you prefer the country to be run by gangsters like Labour led Glasgow City Council? Quote
BobbyBiscuit Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Compared to other politicians like say, Alistair Darling Gordon Brown Micheal Forsythe Tony Blair George Osbourne David Cameron George Foulkes Ian Davidson Compared to the above list of scum bags, what has Alex Salmond done to incur your displeasure? Is it the fact that the SNP are actually delivering on manifesto promises and have a cogent vision and confident front bench, or would you prefer the country to be run by gangsters like Labour led Glasgow City Council? Deary me. I think we'll leave that one there. Quote
fatjim Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 let's not get started on that annoying cow nicola sturgeon. Quote
glasgow sheep Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Alex Salmond is an appalling cunt. It's not just him, what's her name Curran and Callmedave among others have come out with an amazing amount of bullshit. Never be surprised at how low a politician will stoop in the hope of gathering a vote or two. The worst thing is that these cunts seem to be advocating letting rfc off with their massive tax bill. I'll remember that next time I see them in Parliament attacking disabled folk for claiming benefits. Twats Quote
TENEMENTFUNSTER Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Deary me. I think we'll leave that one there. Jesus would indeed have wept BB. Quote
Dandy_Don Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 Let's assume that the Huns get voted back in - doesn't that set a precedent for all SPL clubs? Quote
TENEMENTFUNSTER Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 If they need to be they will and it should. But it won't. Quote
tlg1903 Posted February 16, 2012 Report Posted February 16, 2012 I dunno about this. Its going to only take two clubs to vote against it for them to be screwed. If Mad Vlad is still in charge i reckon thats one vote against straight away, especially as they are getting screwed by the huns to a tune of a mill Quote
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