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Alex Thomson:

 

Being in Brussels doing something completely different and thus probing Rangers part-time is less than ideal but I can now reveal something of what’s been going on and where we are now headed.

 

Broadly, the Scottish Sun story is correct this morning so cap duly doffed etc – but there’s a lot more to it of course. I can reveal that the group of England-based businessmen with UK big-football club experience has, in fact, been in talks with Rangers Administrators Duff and Phelps for around a week.

 

That is, all the time that D&P were staging “bogus” press statements at Ibrox and giving pitch-side interviews, they were also talking to this group at least, and possibly at least one more outside-bidder from beyond the UK.

 

As Channel 4 News indicated last week, much of the whole Miller-meltdown appears now to have been little more than a very public “smoking-out” exercise to see if the Tennessee Trucker really was serious or liked what he saw at Ibrox when he looked at the books or heard the Bears growl “Yanks Out” and other welcoming noises.

 

Craig Whyte is certainly serious about the Sassenach Saviours and is talking with them today and tomorrow. My information is that, unlike the Miller’s Tale (with apologies to Geoffrey Chaucer), we are now talking something more real with individuals whom it would not be helpful to name at this point.

 

As one at the heart of it all said:

 

“Alex – you can certainly say the next 24 to 48 hours are vital for Rangers Football Club.”

 

And this time around I’d be strongly inclined to say this is more credible stuff after last weeks Caledonian-American ceilidh-of-the-absurd.

 

So where’s Craigy? The majority shareholder of Rangers, Craig Whyte is talking, talking seriously I believe. And he is shifting. Not long ago he was asking whistfully for £30 million from a club you’d do well to extract 30p from, just now.

 

I’d say that position’s changed or changing as we speak. He will, I know, be extremely angry at all the time this has taken and the turbulent courtship of Mr Miller will have improved nobody’s mood around these talks.

 

In sum: expect an English-led deal from people with genuine football experience, minded to avoid liquidation via a CVA (which will be treated like a Newco, UEFA tell me with a 3 year ban), and expect Craig Whyte to agree a final exit strategy.

 

I’m saying expect something like this to be put on the table, that is not the same as expect this to happen.

 

But…but…this is Rangers Football Club. I’ve done what I can to map it til, say, Friday but…check against delivery.

 

 

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By Chris McLaughlin Senior Football Reporter, BBC Scotland

 

Rangers administrator believes it can secure the club's future before the end of the week despite American tycoon Bill Miller withdrawing his bid.

 

Duff & Phelps' David Whitehouse says two of the three bidders are new to the process, with none contemplating liquidation of the present club.

 

Whitehouse also claims that a UK-based consortium has reached an agreement with owner Craig Whyte.

 

Transfer of his shares are required for a Company Voluntary Arrangement.

 

But it is the only bidding party considering such a process, with the others pursuing a similar "newco" route proposed by Miller.

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As many times as the deadlines have been shifted and goalposts moved I guess

 

You mean every time one deal goes tits up only for another to mysteriously appear from the ether which only a few days down the line also goes tits up.

These guys are fucked, and even if by some miracle they survive in any form will be horseshit, broke and without European football for a few years.

3 weeks till the wages go back up to pre-admin levels.  You expect anything to be decided by then?

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You mean every time one deal goes tits up only for another to mysteriously appear from the ether which only a few days down the line also goes tits up.

These guys are fucked, and even if by some miracle they survive in any form will be horseshit, broke and without European football for a few years.

3 weeks till the wages go back up to pre-admin levels.  You expect anything to be decided by then?

 

I expect that almost as soon as the full-time whistle for this season blows (whether before or after the clubs vote, probably to grant access to spl), either someone will suddenly buy the club, or be in the genuine speedy process of doing it.

 

At best i can see them having no league involvement for a season, then coming back into spl 2013/14.

 

In which case 2012/13 would need us to spunk as much cash into afc as poss, while noisily voicing opposition to newco13/14, in the hope stewarty would back us up and deny them access at the vote a year from now.

 

But what I expect is the same as all along. Stagemanage a delay to fulful their fixtures, then operation whitewash steps up a gear.

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I expect that almost as soon as the full-time whistle for this season blows (whether before or after the clubs vote, probably to grant access to spl), either someone will suddenly buy the club, or be in the genuine speedy process of doing it.

 

At best i can see them having no league involvement for a season, then coming back into spl 2013/14.

 

In which case 2012/13 would need us to spunk as much cash into afc as poss, while noisily voicing opposition to newco13/14, in the hope stewarty would back us up and deny them access at the vote a year from now.

 

But what I expect is the same as all along. Stagemanage a delay to fulful their fixtures, then operation whitewash steps up a gear.

 

I think the idea that they would be out of football completely for a year and then would come straight back into the SPL ranks up there with your idea that the Government deliberately make schools shit to keep us all stupid and under their control.

 

D&P may well have been stringing this out till the end of the season but I doubt that they have done this in cahoots with the SFA or SPL.

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I think the idea that they would be out of football completely for a year and then would come straight back into the SPL ranks up there with your idea that the Government deliberately make schools shit to keep us all stupid and under their control.

 

D&P may well have been stringing this out till the end of the season but I doubt that they have done this in cahoots with the SFA or SPL.

 

No reason the governing bodies had to be in cahoots. Though it wouldn't surprise me.

 

And yeah that is far fetched but i don't see them being out of the spl for as long as it'd take to get back from div3. mainly because i don't see them being out at all.

 

we shall see. it'd be all my christmases come at once if i'm wrong

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No reason the governing bodies had to be in cahoots. Though it wouldn't surprise me.

 

And yeah that is far fetched but i don't see them being out of the spl for as long as it'd take to get back from div3. mainly because i don't see them being out at all.

 

we shall see. it'd be all my christmases come at once if i'm wrong

 

I suspect it will be a middle ground of 1st division, which was suggested on Radio Scotland last night

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If I was a supporter of a lower league team I may see it as an insult to have that league used as some kind of punishment naughty corner dumping ground for big boys who can't behave

 

If I was the Chairmen of SFL1 clubs I'd be looking for some form of compensation for the loss of any meaningful competition for a season or an agreement to enlarge the SPL. It's one thing re-applying for league membership and working your way up from the bottom of the pyramid it's another to randomly plunk them into the SFL1 as some sort of compromise punishment where in all likelihood they'll still be able to attract a reasonable calibre of player in the knowledge they'll be back in the SPL in a season. Personally I'd rather they stayed in the SPL with a +/- 50 point deduction than one rebuilding year in the SFL.

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If I was the Chairmen of SFL1 clubs I'd be looking for some form of compensation for the loss of any meaningful competition for a season or an agreement to enlarge the SPL. It's one thing re-applying for league membership and working your way up from the bottom of the pyramid it's another to randomly plunk them into the SFL1 as some sort of compromise punishment where in all likelihood they'll still be able to attract a reasonable calibre of player in the knowledge they'll be back in the SPL in a season. Personally I'd rather they stayed in the SPL with a +/- 50 point deduction than one rebuilding year in the SFL.

 

I was thinking that today.

3yrs of being shit, no european football and mid table SPL with the orcs deserting the ship (wouldn't need a 50pt penalty for this), or start from the bottom, keep winning every week, build momentum over 3yrs then back into the SPL with the prospect of Euro football.

 

I'm surprised the SPL hasn't resurrected SPL2 which would be perfect for them.

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http://scotslawthoughts.wordpress.com/2012/05/09/postcard-from-the-edge-why-its-a-cva-or-bust-for-rangers-guest-post-by-don-quixote/

 

Random Thoughts Re Scots Law by Paul McConville

 

I am delighted to say that a world famous figure from literature has chipped in on the Rangers debate.

 

Don Quixote has offered some thoughts on the future of the Ibrox Club, and I post them below.

 

Strictly no windmills were harmed in the writing of this post.

 

—————————-

 

I will endeavour to summarise the current position:

 

Rangers assets are bordering on worthless, they are only an asset to a commercially viable Rangers. A fire sale of these assets to a non-football source would just about pay the administration, liquidation fees and redundancies. D&Ps were not bluffing when they said liquidation was not an option, there have been no bids for the assets of Rangers from a non-football source in 3 months.

Rangers structure is not a commercially viable business, its loss making potential existed prior to any sanctions. Current and anticipated sanctions affecting European and domestic income over the next 3 years renders Rangers un-salvageable.

 

In effect Rangers is worthless as a business proposition, and is threatened with permanent extinction. Rangers can not be downsized to survive in the SPL never mind Divisions 3-2-1, it is a superstore and not a corner shop. Rangers main source of income is ticket sales, and its overheads cannot be reduced sufficiently to compensate for the projected reduction in ticket sales.

Its a simple equation, if one reduces the quality of the team and simultaneously removes most of the prize incentives, then unlike ” the field of dreams ” the  crowds vital for survival will not come for 3 consecutive years. What is the point of watching your new average team battle for second in the SPL with no Europe and little prize money ?

 

A newco-oldco solution does not make Rangers anymore commercially viable, the briefest diligence by Bill Miller confirmed that it would cost in the region of 30 million to turn Rangers around during the 3 years of European and domestic sanctions.

 

The experts on ticket sales( Ticketus) withdrew precisely because they calculated the financial consequences of playing for nothing with an affordable team.

 

Projected drops in attendance are the new elephant in the room, even if you bought Rangers for 5 million it would cost you 35 million in CASH before it breaks even.

 

A newco Rangers could not afford to maintain its assets or pay its bills for 3 years with a drop in ticket sales, they needed to cut their overheads by 10 million with 45,000 crowds, make that 30,000 and you are drowning in a sea of debt….and apathy.

 

In amongst this gloom is one last hope, the administration period can be extended to facilitate a stand alone CVA, involving a Ticketus guarantee and CWs shares. Players can be sold ahead to bring in working capital, this can be easily justified by the proceeds of a CVA. Even a bid of 5 million with Ticketus and the debentures guaranteed delivers over 40 million to the creditors.

A CVA does not carry the penalties of  liquidation, administration or a newco, this guarantees to some extent the main source of income, the average attendance.

 

As for the SPL and SFA sanctions against Rangers out of administration, no point deductions and certainly no European ban, it will be financial penalties but over a longer period of time( 6 years). Possibly 25% of SPL money and 25% of any UEFA prize money.

 

Liquidation or a newco are not in the best interests of the creditors or the SPL and either option brings in sanctions that condemns Rangers as an un-salvageable business model.

 

It is a CVA where everyone benefits or it’s extinction, and everyone loses.

 

Regards:

 

Don Quixote.

 

 

Posted by Paul McConville, on behalf of Miguel Cervantes

 

 

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So Spiers states we would end up like the Irish League.

Let's look at that:

 

lifted from P&B:

 

Some facts

 

The SPL has the 7th highest top flight average attendance in Europe.

 

Average attendances in the SPL are bigger than the top flights of Russia, Belgium, Portugal, Poland, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Ukraine, Sweden, Greece, Romainia, Czech Rep.

 

If you exclude the Old Firm's average home gates, the SPL would still have a higher average gate than the top flights of Denmark, Sweden, Greece, Romania & Czech Rep (and on a par with Austria).

 

The Scottish First Division has higher average home gates than the top flights in Serbia, Slovakia, Finland, Croatia & Bulgaria.

 

The Scottish First Division has average gates which are more than 50% higher than the top flight in Ireland.

The Scottish Second Division has higher average gates than the top flights in Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Montenegro, Armenia & Georgia.

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