Brexit - Will it happen

[Ten Caat]

USE wouldn't work on language grounds far less monetary. They'd have to establish a "main" language to be the official language  perhaps with one lesser language as an official "secondary language. The USA works because of this....vast majority speaking English with a few pockets of Spanish speakers dotted along the Mexican border in Texas and Arizona.

 

As things stand English is the preferred global language of business and if the UK stayed in this conglomeration, would probably be the official language. If we were outwith it? Then the fun and games would begin. In the European Parliament right now, the official languages are English and French having equal standing. Although every document is translated into each state's individual language. Thus the French would claim that their language should be the official language. But hang on..

 

Germany would turn around and say that as the biggest contributors to the finanacial pot that German should be the official language. The Spaniards would claim that globally Spanish is the first language of far more population than even English is, taking into account the Central and South American countries therefore they should take precedence.

 

The Austrian Empire failed not only because of defeat in WW1...but also because its constituent parts wanted self determination and the right to speak their native tongues....Czech/Slovak/Hungarian/Serbo-Croat/Romanian. The lesser countries of a USE would demand the same rights.

 

And all this without even delving into the political differences and aspirations of the various regions, not to mention financial disparity of the relatively prosperous north v basket cases of the south.

 

If anything, assuming the UK leaves the EU, I suspect others will follow within a relatively short time frame. Austria being first I predict. Possibly the Visegrad countries as well. And Germany may decide it's sick of subsidising everyone else an hold an in/out referendum. If they go...the whole shebang collapses

 

[rocket_scientist]

The original question "will it happen?" wasn't one I thought we needed to worry about before. I naively thought that the people had spoken and that Parliament had a duty to implement the will of the people.

 

Given the stuff since, there is now a danger that it won't. The "deal" that May offered, the one that Yanis described as one that "only a losing nation in a war could accept", the one that Boris was the first to rebel against when presented at Chequers, the one that was rejected repeatedly in Parliament, may have been deliberately offered in full expectation that it would be rejected.

 

With the expulsion of May and the introduction of the bumbling blond fool, at least the new PM knows that leaving the EU is what should happen - best interests of the UK + it's what we voted for - but he has no idea how to achieve it. Without a majority and consensus, the only guarantee is nothing will happen. The Westminster rhetoric is being confused by the SNP in particular who are mixing messages, uninterested in what the UK voted for and doggedly pursuing independence.

 

It's a fucking mess and if the Scottish people do now have the appetite to leave England, I would have far preferred the SNP to have delivered a clear vision rather than relying on Tory incompetence to swing 2 or 3% of the remainers. Currency, economy and the type of EU membership are big implications for an independent Scotland and there is no further progress since the last failed referendum on the key issues. The SNP banking on Tory splits is one thing, that they're continuing to sell nothing concrete themselves makes it less likely that they'll get a majority to any indyref that England won't allow us to have so soon anyway.

[Tyrant]

With the expulsion of May and the introduction of the bumbling blond fool, at least the new PM knows that leaving the EU is what should happen - best interests of the UK + it's what we voted for - but he has no idea how to achieve it. Without a majority and consensus, the only guarantee is nothing will happen. The Westminster rhetoric is being confused by the SNP in particular who are mixing messages, uninterested in what the UK voted for and doggedly pursuing independence.

 

Good. It's literally their job to look after Scotland and Scots. 62% of whom voted to remain as we all know. Although due to us rejecting independence 2 years previously I would and still would accept ending up out of the EU despite that not being what I voted for personally. We made our bed so we should lie in it. And that should apply too to the Tories who voted May as their leader. They made their bed. They elected a remainer who apparently negotiated a shite deal. They then elected a man severely lacking in any sort of diplomacy skills required to bring MPs together. I still think Brexit will happen but if it doesn't it's no one's fault but said Tories.

 

It's a fucking mess and if the Scottish people do now have the appetite to leave England, I would have far preferred the SNP to have delivered a clear vision rather than relying on Tory incompetence to swing 2 or 3% of the remainers. Currency, economy and the type of EU membership are big implications for an independent Scotland and there is no further progress since the last failed referendum on the key issues. The SNP banking on Tory splits is one thing, that they're continuing to sell nothing concrete themselves makes it less likely that they'll get a majority to any indyref that England won't allow us to have so soon anyway.

 

I think the SNP will deliver a clear(er) vision. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from the 2014 whitepaper and if those lessons aren't learned then again the SNP will have to take responsibility. I can hardly think of any circumstances in which I wouldn't vote for independence so to me it almost doesn't matter what's in the whitepaper but for others it very much does so they need to get it right. The Tory incompetence will undoubtedly speed up the time between indyrefs but I don't think the SNP are relying on it. Like everyone else they're trying to navigate the political minefield that is the UK at the moment.

[Kowalski]

Whilst this whole mess was created (and has been continued) by the Tories, the main issue has always been the Irish border.  It was never properly discussed, or conveniently largely ignored, during the referendum debates.

 

There are posts in this very thread from 2 years ago saying there are no solutions to this.  Although a unified Ireland is probably the only solution for a clean and orderly Brexit.

 

I have never believed Brexit would take place.

 

Oh and I see BoJo's brother can't be bothered with it all now either.

[Ten Caat]

I have absolutely no problem with the SNP's position on Brexit as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain and indeed, even when broken down into individual constituencies, each and every one returned a vote to remain. As has ben said, the SNP's job is to look after Scottish interests so if that conflates with UK interests then so be it.

 

That said, as things stand we are still a part of the UK. And the UK as a whole voted to leave. The Government was entrusted to ensure this happened but Theresa May wasn't satisfied with the majority she inherited from Cameron and felt she could strengthen her position in 2017 by holding a very early election. Bizarrely the Tories actually strengthened their position in Scotland but overall lost some of the majority and ended up weaker. This ennobled Remainers to star to do everything in their power to frustrate the Brexit process. The Irish backstop was Remainers "bonus ball" get out where they could pretty much always vote down any deal May was able to negotiate, although it turned out she was as weak as water anyway and the European negotiators left the table each time offering deals that in essence meant that we were only leaving in name only and to all purposes really weren't leaving at all.

 

The Irish backstop has no solution other than a return to a hard border. Not even Boris would be mad enough to risk that one given that certain factions of the IRA are already showing signs of a return to action. A hard border and full on terrorist activity would be inevitable. However any other option discussed so far has no real support and some of the ideas put forward have no technology available to implement them even if they could theoretically work. I'm certain that an Ireland wide plebiscite on reuniting the island is only a matter of 3 to 5years down the line and I think the result will be a united Ireland..........probably the best option all round although the Unionists will be furious and likely a good number will demand resettlement somewhere in Britain.

 

As for Brexit........will it happen? No I don't think it will now. The Tories should increase their standing in England in the inevitable forthcoming election but will lose a few seats in Scotland so likely we will still end up with a hung Parliament. I'm not sure then what I'd prefer.....a Boris led minority administration or a Corbyn coalition propped up by the SNP and Lib Dems. Either way, Brexit won't happen as the remainers should find enough support to frustrate any attempts to leave. A Corbyn led coalition would just cancel it full stop.

 

[Tyrant]

Whilst this whole mess was created (and has been continued) by the Tories, the main issue has always been the Irish border.  It was never properly discussed, or conveniently largely ignored, during the referendum debates.

 

There are posts in this very thread from 2 years ago saying there are no solutions to this.  Although a unified Ireland is probably the only solution for a clean and orderly Brexit.

 

I have never believed Brexit would take place.

 

Oh and I see BoJo's brother can't be bothered with it all now either.

 

 

There will be nothing clean or orderly about the unification of Ireland. The proddies will kick aff big time. There was a riot just the other week in the Weej when a Irish Unity march was countered with a large group of UJ waving Huns. I'd love to see it but I can't envisage Ireland being unified full stop and certainly not without some large scale disturbance.

[tom_widdows]

[Tyrant]

 

 

Aye but it's really because of concerns about democracy.  :

 

The nail has been struck square on the heid. Explains why Boris would "rather be dead in a ditch" than delay further.

[Kowalski]

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

 

So, how much are these firms set to make from Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ approach to Brexit?

 

From the financial data publicly available, Byline Times can reveal that currently £4,563,350,000 (£4.6 billion) of aggregate short positions on a ‘no deal’ Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign.

 

Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU Referendum result. The ones which didn’t typically didn’t exist at that time but are invariably connected via directorships to companies that did.

 

Another £3,711,000,000 (£3.7 billion) of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but did not donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign.

 

Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

[rocket_scientist]

Ach, lawyers are a bunch of fucking wankers, no good for fuck all.

 

I know what Boris was trying but he didn't even have the intelligence to ensure that he was on solid ground. He really is the charlatan arsehole of no principle that we all knew he was. He didn't take long to prove it.

 

The people want to get away from the corrupt EU programme. It would save us money and allow us to progress. Not just us, if we are allowed to leave the EU, the system itself would implode and the peoples of other progressive countries would benefit too.

 

The lawyers and the weak have fucked it up. Corbyn can't make a decision on how to wipe his arse. Politicians are all fucking useless. Farage is licking his lips at this.

[donsdaft]

:D :D :D :D

 

Europe for Ever

[tom_widdows]

Just because

 

[Elgindon]

 

Alternative Brexit listen

 

 

Full length interview

 

[rocket_scientist]

It's all down to our "democratically-elected" MP's now, following the sickening charade Boris and Juncker put on.

 

It ain't gonna happen.

 

Message to the bankers; you shouldn't gamble in speculative punts with other people's money.

 

Message to the bureaucrats; get yersel a decent job.

 

Message to the people; wake the fuck up you fucking thick cunts.

[Tyrant]

It's all down to our "democratically-elected" MP's now, following the sickening charade Boris and Juncker put on.

 

It ain't gonna happen.

 

Message to the bankers; you shouldn't gamble in speculative punts with other people's money.

 

Message to the bureaucrats; get yersel a decent job.

 

Message to the people; wake the fuck up you fucking thick cunts.

 

 

What, in your opinion, should now happen, Rocket? And what do you think will happen?

[rocket_scientist]

 

What, in your opinion, should now happen, Rocket? And what do you think will happen?

 

I have no idea really. Do you have an opinion on this?

 

What should have happened a long time ago is that our MP's should have delivered the will of the people. We didn't vote on a deal. We voted to get the fuck away from the EU.

 

What I think will happen is that Parliament will vote tomorrow to reject the deal. That would mean an extension and yet more guff and nonsense. It's a shambles. Cameron never thought the people would vote leave. Emboldened by his ability to convince the Scots to stay, he thought the whole of England would do what he told them to and remain.

[Tyrant]

I have no idea really. Do you have an opinion on this?

 

What should have happened a long time ago is that our MP's should have delivered the will of the people. We didn't vote on a deal. We voted to get the fuck away from the EU.

 

What I think will happen is that Parliament will vote tomorrow to reject the deal. That would mean an extension and yet more guff and nonsense. It's a shambles. Cameron never thought the people would vote leave. Emboldened by his ability to convince the Scots to stay, he thought the whole of England would do what he told them to and remain.

 

Of course I have an opinion.

 

We voted Leave on the basis of a "great deal" We'd get "a great deal because they need us more than we need them". We were lied to over and over and over again. Of course the sentient amongst us recognised this. We did not vote for a hard Brexit.

 

I'm of the opinion that hurting the pride of the Brexiters on all levels is of little importance and that we should extend the Brexit date until such times as we're ready for it (or as ready as we can be). Boris said he'd rather be dead in a ditch than ask for an extension. Tough shit Boris. If we need one we'll ask for one weather it hurts your stupid pride or not.

 

I have a sneaky feeling he'll get this deal through parliament though. It might cost a few more billion to sweeten the DUP though. But Boris is clearly looking for a Brexit at any fucking cost as shown by the deal he's "miraculously negotiated" being worse than the one that that useless cunt Theresa May organised.

 

 

FWIW the Scots convinced themselves to stay. Stupid cunts.

[Ten Caat]

I think the vote tomorrow will actually be pretty close......perhaps within 10 votes either way. Naturally the fervent anti-Brexiteers will attempt, and likely succeed, in adding all sorts of amendments prior to the final vote happening. The most obvious one being that they will try to force in a clause subjecting a carried motion on the final deal to a confirmatory referendum. And of course there are still MP's with their heads stuck firmly in the sand demanding further 3 month extensions despite the EU saying themselves that this will not happen.

 

The best thing coming out of tomorrow will be that the Government will finally get their desired wish of a General Election. Labour quite obviously don't want one as a disaffected public take their revenge, especially if sitting Labour MP's in seats that voted leave take the whip tomorrow and vote the agreement down. Whether or not the Tories gain enough seats from Labour down south to gain an overall majority is up for debate though. Especially as they will likely lose 5-7 seats to the SNP in Scotland. And of course the Brexit Party themselves could put a spanner in the Tory works by fielding candidates that split the natural right leaning vote and allow the Lib Dems especially to make gains by default.

 

The only certainty in it all is that Scotland will get its second referendum next year.

[rocket_scientist]

The only certainty in it all is that Scotland will get its second referendum next year.

 

But the government need to allow us a further referendum, the "once in a generation" opportunity that we blew already.

 

So who are the government going to be and why are they going to grant their permission?

 

I don't see the "certainty" you speak of.

 

[manc_don]

The only certainty would be that the SNP want that. Whether they get it is completely different. I can't see it unless the political landscape changes significantly and the SNP can get someone to do a deal with them.

[Kowalski]

If BoJo gets his “Brexit” (I believe it’s a no deal he’s still going for - hence why the ERG are suddenly on board) then it’ll lead to the break up of the Union - Ireland and Scotland definitely, probably Wales. That’s one helluva legacy he’s going to have.

 

Looks like the vote might get dropped as the Letwin amendment will pull the rug from under the cabal’s feat. If the vote does go ahead and it goes through, then it will be a very dark day for Labour. Corbyn is just as complicit in this whole horror show.

 

I think BoJo and Cummings have miscalculated things though as I think Farage will come for them at a GE if this mess is still unresolved.

[rocket_scientist]

FWIW the Scots convinced themselves to stay. Stupid cunts.

 

What the SNP ignore is that 40% of us voted to leave the EU. It suits their agenda to keep on repeating Scotland voted to stay in and it's a good political lever but you're right about stupid cunts. Indyref and the last GE proved this beyond all reasonable doubt.

[Ten Caat]

If the UK government refuse us a referendum, Sturgeon will just make a Scottish law in Holyrood to hold one anyway. Of course it will hold no status under UK law as it stands....but if it is held and there is a majority for independence, would the Uk government really stop us seceding?

 

For what it's worth I'm not convinced it is quite the right time. In general, folk over 65 are against independence for many reasons, not least having grown up with and lived through times where the NHS was created (or was a very new creation), a welfare state that in its early years worked as it was designed to do and nationalised industries that provided steady secure jobs. That generation will never vote anything other than to stay in the union. But they are slowly dying off. And being replaced by 16 year olds who are altogether far more open to the prospect of independence. So I'd rather hold off another 5 years or so by which time the UK hopefully will have exited the EU and Scotland can see just what a disaster that has been.

 

If we hold it next year I think we would lose  along the lines of 52% to 48%. And then we really cannot have another one for a full generation.

[donsdaft]

Stuff it up your a'rse Boris.

 

Have you won a vote yet?

[Tyrant]

If the UK government refuse us a referendum, Sturgeon will just make a Scottish law in Holyrood to hold one anyway. Of course it will hold no status under UK law as it stands....but if it is held and there is a majority for independence, would the Uk government really stop us seceding?

 

Sturgeon has made it very clear time and time again that she won't do this. Looks where it got Catalonia.

 

For what it's worth I'm not convinced it is quite the right time. In general, folk over 65 are against independence for many reasons, not least having grown up with and lived through times where the NHS was created (or was a very new creation), a welfare state that in its early years worked as it was designed to do and nationalised industries that provided steady secure jobs. That generation will never vote anything other than to stay in the union. But they are slowly dying off. And being replaced by 16 year olds who are altogether far more open to the prospect of independence. So I'd rather hold off another 5 years or so by which time the UK hopefully will have exited the EU and Scotland can see just what a disaster that has been.

 

If we hold it next year I think we would lose  along the lines of 52% to 48%. And then we really cannot have another one for a full generation.

 

 

I think you're probably right in that Yes would lose again. But didn't the SNP vote to drastically increase the state pension in the event of Indy? That might talk some of the fossils round.

 

 

As an aside I wish to fuck everyone would stop using the term "once in a generation". The political landscape has rarely changed so much and so quickly than it has in recent years and using a term like "once in a generation" just isn't a promise that should be made or necessarily kept. It's used by those who are fucking terrified of losing the status quo.