The January window

[scotfree]

Not sure what to think of this...... 

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/38628406

 

[rocket_scientist]

Not sure what to think of this...... 

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/38628406

 

It's very clear. McInnes is an employee. He's happy to receive a wage. Milne is his boss.

 

Selling one of our best footballers should not be in the plan if the plan is to compete. It's not like Hayes is a young superstar destined for greatness at the top of the game so the rhetoric about what's best for his career is telling.

 

Milne doesn't care about on-field success. He never has and he never will. His only objective is money and always has been. It's the sole reason he got involved with AFC.

[Reidzer 1314]

Not sure what to think of this...... 

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/38628406

 

I am probably wrong but that article sort of sounds like that Hayes possibly wants the move and it could just be a case of Cardiff coming up with more money.

[rocket_scientist]

I am probably wrong but that article sort of sounds like that Hayes possibly wants the move and it could just be a case of Cardiff coming up with more money.

 

On an aside, why did you say "I am probably wrong"?

[LA-Don]

Sorry, but this is bullshit. I don't understand why we don't basically say we don't want to sell him, he's under contract, and it will take an absolutely amazing and high offer for us to consider selling him. End of story.

 

We gave away Flood for free and that hurt us - why? The player wanted to play more so we kept him happy by releasing him. Now it sounds like Jonny wants a move and we'll work with him if Cardiff offer a little more money. I don't grudge Jonny wanting a new challenge and a significant pay increase, a pro player has a very short career and needs to be financially responsible making as much as he can while he can, but we need to look out for the club/team first. He's an internationalist and one of the best players in Scotland, we deserve to either hold out for an appropriate offer that considers he's one of the best players in Scotland or keep him. We're one of Scotland's best teams that provides players with top of the league challenges, cup final opportunities, and European football, and should only be selling our best players if it provides significant funds to greatly improve the team/squad.

[Reidzer 1314]

On an aside, why did you say "I am probably wrong"?

 

Because I dont claim to be an expert in these things.

 

Maybe 'its just my opinion' would have been a better term to use.

[manc_don]

I am probably wrong but that article sort of sounds like that Hayes possibly wants the move and it could just be a case of Cardiff coming up with more money.

 

I'd say it sounds like you're probably right. It doesn't make for pleasant reading. If we have to sell, I'd hope he has the decency to stay until the summer, or our season will take a massive hit.

[rocket_scientist]

Because I dont claim to be an expert in these things.

 

Maybe 'its just my opinion' would have been a better term to use.

 

Reason I asked is that you are probably right.

 

We were talking about success attracting resentment in another thread last week, a phenomenom for which the British are proud. In close proximity to this is resentment for those who have the courage of conviction and who dare to express themselves. All interesting stuff for those who are interested, of which the majority are not.

[rocket_scientist]

Sorry, but this is bullshit. I don't understand why we don't basically say we don't want to sell him, he's under contract, and it will take an absolutely amazing and high offer for us to consider selling him. End of story.

 

We gave away Flood for free and that hurt us - why? The player wanted to play more so we kept him happy by releasing him. Now it sounds like Jonny wants a move and we'll work with him if Cardiff offer a little more money. I don't grudge Jonny wanting a new challenge and a significant pay increase, a pro player has a very short career and needs to be financially responsible making as much as he can while he can, but we need to look out for the club/team first. He's an internationalist and one of the best players in Scotland, we deserve to either hold out for an appropriate offer that considers he's one of the best players in Scotland or keep him. We're one of Scotland's best teams that provides players with top of the league challenges, cup final opportunities, and European football, and should only be selling our best players if it provides significant funds to greatly improve the team/squad.

 

Excellent post. I would argue with you on one point though. "I don't understand..." you say? I think we do understand. It's very obvious but the truth isn't always pleasant and digestible. Some prefer to deny truth rather than face facts. Mirrors and the Great Pretenders hit this spot in relation to high performance sports persons. Don't you just hate that term - high performance. Wank terminology no doubt coined by a wank human.

[Reidzer 1314]

I'd say it sounds like you're probably right. It doesn't make for pleasant reading. If we have to sell, I'd hope he has the decency to stay until the summer, or our season will take a massive hit.

 

Jonny going would a hammer blow to the club and the fans for sure.

 

My only hope that is if he does go that it is not some deadline day deal where we are then left scraping the barrel to rush in a relacement.

 

Also of course that McInnes MUST get some of the transfer fee to spend on the replacement should it happen.

[Edinburghdon]

The club have confirmed Wes Burns is being sent back to his parent club, can't say he will be missed given his limited impact

[Reidzer 1314]

The club have confirmed Wes Burns is being sent back to his parent club, can't say he will be missed given his limited impact

 

Best of luck to the lad but yeah I cant say he will be missed.

[LA-Don]

I suppose I do understand, I'm just really disappointed. Is there another example of any other Scottish club doing this, releasing an important player in a key position then selling one on the cheap just to keep them happy? Players sign contracts and it's up to us to manage that - if the right offer comes along that helps us improve the team then sell, but obviously I doubt we'll hold out for that.....again.

 

Burns is a strange one. While I'm not disappointed to see him go and he's had minimal impact, the fact that we've uncertainty with McGinn, Hayes, Maddison, and I'd add Storey too, we could end up losing a bunch of players this window. Do I have the faith we'll bring in sufficient and more than adequate replacements? Don't need to answer that one, we proved that last year with Danny Ward. Sadly the club reeks of a lack of ambition right now.

[Reidzer 1314]

It does certainly seem to be that most talk at the moment is focused on players leaving and it has gone very quiet in regards to any new arrivals this month.

[manc_don]

I suppose I do understand, I'm just really disappointed. Is there another example of any other Scottish club doing this, releasing an important player in a key position then selling one on the cheap just to keep them happy? Players sign contracts and it's up to us to manage that - if the right offer comes along that helps us improve the team then sell, but obviously I doubt we'll hold out for that.....again.

 

Burns is a strange one. While I'm not disappointed to see him go and he's had minimal impact, the fact that we've uncertainty with McGinn, Hayes, Maddison, and I'd add Storey too, we could end up losing a bunch of players this window. Do I have the faith we'll bring in sufficient and more than adequate replacements? Don't need to answer that one, we proved that last year with Danny Ward. Sadly the club reeks of a lack of ambition right now.

 

I'm hoping it's a sign that we have some certainty over some players. Burns, I have no concerns about and from what I've read on BCFC forums, it's what they expected to happen (i.e. flashes of brilliance but all too often does nothing).

 

Hopefully the club get back from Dubai and there's a few signings announced...

[Edinburghdon]

There were never going to be any signings while the squad were in Dubai, so I don't see the lack of activity so far as a concern.

 

Reckon folk are reading far too much into the Hayes situation too, haven't seen anything from Hayes to suggest that he wants to go (or would force a move). I'd say folk are overreacting to the clubs statement too but that's just me!

[manc_don]

There were never going to be any signings while the squad were in Dubai, so I don't see the lack of activity so far as a concern.

 

Reckon folk are reading far too much into the Hayes situation too, haven't seen anything from Hayes to suggest that he wants to go (or would force a move). I'd say folk are overreacting to the clubs statement too but that's just me!

 

Absolutely. That said, I'd hope that the signings we were/ are going to make have already had the wheels put in motion (i'm sure that's the case) and they get wrapped up quickly. None of this deadline day pish.

[OxfordDon]

I don't understand why we don't basically say we don't want to sell him, he's under contract, and it will take an absolutely amazing and high offer for us to consider selling him. End of story.

 

Isn't that pretty much exactly what McInnes says in that article? 

[Edinburghdon]

Isn't that pretty much exactly what McInnes says in that article? 

 

Well aye, but why let that get in the way of a good moan?

[rocket_scientist]

Isn't that pretty much exactly what McInnes says in that article? 

 

McInnes doesn't have a say. Milne is in charge of the budget and his valuation of Hayes won't be as high as it should be, as time will tell I fear. Unless of course we are a great club being run by good people who really do have "the product" as the priority and who did not lie to us at the Capitol 20 years ago.

[LA-Don]

DM said something about a serious offer we can get resolved and see where it takes us. My comment was we don't want to sell him and I want an amazing and high offer. Very different. I'll take 3million, DM will take 750k. It makes zero sense to sell him now, sell him in the summer at worst when we have more replacement options. A dons team less McGinn and Hayes will struggle to make top 4 and Europe unless DM produces some transfer magic.

[manc_don]

DM said something about a serious offer we can get resolved and see where it takes us. My comment was we don't want to sell him and I want an amazing and high offer. Very different. I'll take 3million, DM will take 750k. It makes zero sense to sell him now, sell him in the summer at worst when we gave more replacement options. A dons team less McGinn and Hayes will struggle to make top 4 and Europe unless DM produces some transfer magic.

 

Top 4 would be a serious ask if that was the case imo selling either in January shouldn't even be entertained.

[RicoS321]

It should have been nipped in the bud immediately and quietly, with the player kept informed. There was no point in even entertaining any bid at all, it's like having a chocolate bar in the cupboard: eventually you'll eat it. Just dinna buy the chocolate in the first place. There's no real business case for selling Hayes in this window, even at £3M.

 

The risk of not finishing second if Hayes goes is massive. Hayes is probably the difference between winning and drawing about 5-6 games between now and Jan based on the first half of the season. The loss of those 10-12 points would see us lose second. The cost to replace him, in January, with a suitable replacement would be, at a guess, circa £1M (there's currently no player in Scotland that fits the bill as far as I'm aware). The likelihood of getting a player to come to the dons that costs that amount is zero.

 

If we don't finish second, it'll be a huge financial cost. I'd reckon a serious drop in season ticket sales. Drop in prize money, drop in euro receipts next season (probably/possibly). Probably a round less in the cup too. We're probably talking seven figures all in. The return to the huns into second at first time of asking would also have a big long term effect. We'd be killing future season ticket revenues too, and seriously. The goodwill gained over the last few years would dwindle to nothing.

 

I think a conservative estimate of losses for not finishing second would be in the region of £2M. The important figure, then, is not what we can get for Hayes now (lets say £3M*), it's the difference between what we can get now versus what we can get in the summer. I'd say that January generally commands significantly higher fees, so lets say we could only get £2M* in the summer, then we lose out on £1M.

 

The options then:

 

• Sell now, get £1M additional revenue, finish third (reduced business) = £1M loss
  
• Sell now, get £1M additional revenue, finish second (retain business)  = £1M profit
  
• Sell now, get £1M additional revenue, buy replacement for £1M, finish second (retain business) = 0 profit + good replacement
  
• Sell now, get £1M additional revenue, buy replacement for £1M, finish third (retain business) = 0 profit + shite replacement
  
• Hayes stays, finish second, sell in summer = £1M profit
  
• Hayes stays, finish third, sell in summer = £1M loss
  

 

Hopefully these are the types of scenario that they're looking at. The most important being the fact that we won't lose out on the transfer fee, just the difference in transfer fee selling now as opposed to the summer.

 

*In terms of player valuation, it'll be based on the value of the contract, which is why we command such low fees in this country (Tims aside). Hayes's remaining contract will be worth at most £250K I'd reckon, so offering double that probably isn't seen as ridiculous by the buying club. I don't think we'll ever get to the type of fee we think is reasonable, or that it will make it worthwhile for us. On the other side of the coin, we should let the player leave in the summer if that is his wish and we are entitled to ask him to see out the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Reidzer 1314]

Twitter talk that Cardiff could come back with a cash + player offer, with Matthew Kennedy being rumoured to be the player offered.

 

EE have reported on it.

 

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/aberdeen-fc/aberdeen-cardiff-city-hayes-warnock/

[BigAl]

Matthew Kennedy played for Killie as a youngster.

Seem to remember him being highly rated at the time before his move to Everton. Will check out the thoughts of my season ticket holding mate at Rugby Park