Betting

[rocket_scientist]

Bobby went for Blackburn and I'm on the opponent's of Brechin again, which happens to be St Mirren this week. £12 on, £22.50 return.

 

On Sunday I'm on Arsenal and BB has taken Lazio. £10 staked, £28.81 return.

[rocket_scientist]

With our first NOD, it took us 17 bets from late December to 11th March to first get our balance over £100. We went over £200 for the first time on 30th March and one day later, last Saturday, 31st March, we exceeded £300 for the first time. Our 6 x winning doubles in a row came to an end with losses on Sunday and Monday but back to winning ways with Rochdale and ICT (v. Brechin) on Tuesday. Hopefully will exceed £400 for the first time tomorrow and if Sunday wins too (Valencia and Arsenal), we will be over £500.

[rocket_scientist]

kitns, I'm on Schalke too tomorrow. Loved the evens price. I put them on in a double with Hibs on Tuesday when they beat Hamilton, a number of bets I put on, some of which have already won and a few running this weekend carrying forward wins from this week.

 

 

[Guest kiriakovisthenewstrachan]

And another £5 double........

 

Peterhead away win v Berwick and the mighty St Albans City to win at home to Whitehawk.  Potential return £10.43.  Poor odds but hopefully nailed on-ish.

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

Poor odds? A double that pays roughly evens is my favourite type of double as I'm usually very confident in my two picks when that's the type of return. Maybe the penny is dropping!

 

Having said that, I don't think Peterhead at 1/2 for the AWAY is that good value so yes I agree, that could be classed as poor odds. They've been too hot and cold for me this year. The only time I backed them in our NOD's was at 9/20 for a HOME win. Even though they won 7-0, I still haven't touched them since.

[rocket_scientist]

Us +35.86, BB 7/10, rs 9/10, 6 out of 10 doubles.

 

kitns -9.64, 11/20 picks, 3 out of 10 doubles.

 

I was at Glebe Park for the first time in my life to see some of my bets come in. Having backed against Brechin for 5 of my last 8 picks and being successful 5/5, I won't be doing so again! They are really shite but if that's the gulf between top and bottom, they're not worth the declining odds we're getting for Brechin's opponents. Plus the pitch was so bad, anything can happen. Just a shite game of fitba made bearable by some great banter from a huge away support thinking they might win the league today and a phenomenal header by me the minute before they scored, for which I got congratulations from admiring buddies. Left 20 minutes before the end.

[rocket_scientist]

Outstanding away pick today Bobby. £54.67 up thru 11. This is going to be profitable 

[rocket_scientist]

We go again Tuesday and Saturday this week BB 

 

Fulham for me the morn.

 

[BobbyBiscuit]

Think I'd need to go for Blackburn again RS. Wigan are very tempting at almost Evens but Rochdale have come in to some form... think Blackburn are probably the safer bet tomorrow night. 

[rocket_scientist]

Think I'd need to go for Blackburn again RS. Wigan are very tempting at almost Evens but Rochdale have come in to some form... think Blackburn are probably the safer bet tomorrow night. 

 

£15 on, £35.33 back. Cheers.

[Guest kiriakovisthenewstrachan]

I'm on Man City for a home win v the scousers and Millwall for away win v Bolton on Tuesday. £5 would bring back £14.44.

 

Wednesday it's Wolves and Real Madrid possible return of £13.05 on the £5.

 

Saturday St Mirren and Fulham for home wins returns £17.55 on £5 stake.

 

I'll be back on next week when all my winners have come in and the Dons are in the cup final 

 

 

 

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

I'm on Man C tomorrow and Fulham both tomorrow and Saturday. Good luck this week. Don't need you digging into your monopoly fund.

[SeeBass]

Got four placed horses from ITV4 races at Kelso on Saturday afternoon.  Donna's Diamond 2nd at (4/1), Lake View Lad 3rd (8/1) and the other two were winners ACDC (9/2) and Keyboard Gangster (16/1) although it returned (28/1) once crossing said finishing line!!

[Guest kiriakovisthenewstrachan]

Any tips for the national Seabass? I never really bet on the horses apart from my annual punt on the national.

[RicoS321]

Any tips for the national Seabass? I never really bet on the horses apart from my annual punt on the national.

 

The one with the funniest name always wins. Then is shot through the nose

[SeeBass]

Final declarations not out til Thursday late morning.  I'd like to see Seeyouatmidnight go well.  Of course last year's winner One For Arthur was trained just 15 miles from where I live Kelso way and we weren't on it.   

[rocket_scientist]

Unlucky run of form kitns. You were 3 of your first 4 and then 7 losers in a row.

 

Or is it luck?

 

Your average double would return 3.14 if successful. Our (BB and I) average pick is 2.41 and our average winning factor is 2.34. With my mate with whom we have been doing this for 3.5 months, very successfully, our average winning return is 2.21. Our £115 double this weekend returns 1.63.

 

Anyway, status as follows;

 

kitns -14.64, 12/22 picks, 3 out of 11 doubles.

us +39.67, BB 8/12 picks, rs 11/12 picks, 7/12 doubles.

 

My average odds pick is 1.41. Bobby's is 1.73. My only loser was our first one, a 3/10 away for Juventus of all things so we know that heavily odds on picks don't always win, particularly aways. But going for doubles at more than 2 to 1 on average, these are not in the spirit of what I suggested to you i.e. "nailed-on" doubles. I'm really not surprised that you're failing, as I predicted you would even when you were winning.

 

For sure there is an element of luck. Bobby's Blackburn were tanking into the opposition last night but never got the breakthrough. My other mate enjoyed an 81st minute winner for ICT last night and a 94th minute winner for Morton to return 3/3 trebles that he and another guy have just opened a paddy power account for, an £84 balance already.

 

I just think that we make our own luck and hunting for such big returns as you are, it is impossible to win more than you lose... without a GREAT deal of luck. My 1 loser in 12 v BB's 4 losers in 12 isn't because I know more about football than him, or that I've been luckier than him or that I have a crystal ball. I'm just playing the odds and the bookies better, something gleaned for decades of experience, some of it bitter.

[tintin]

Rocket are you playing level stakes each bet or points?

 

Have some tokens to play with at Reeds masters win... So happy days

[rocket_scientist]

Rocket are you playing level stakes each bet or points?

 

Have some tokens to play with at Reeds masters win... So happy days

 

I don't understand the question sir.

 

As I said at the start, maintain a spreadsheet. It's the ONLY way to beat the bookie.

 

The average odds for a double between BB and I and my mate and I is over evens and not as speculative as 1.5 to 1 i.e. 6/4.

 

For example, two picks at 1/3 + 1/2 is an even bet.

 

 

[tintin]

Question is do you play one stake. Say £5 each bet. Or do you increase the stakes if you are more confident or have more funds in the bank?

[rocket_scientist]

Question is do you play one stake. Say £5 each bet. Or do you increase the stakes if you are more confident or have more funds in the bank?

 

No, never the same stake. That's just casual punting, putting an interest on. We're not interested in that. We are doing it to beat the bookie. Our first bet in late December was a £2.50 double. It took us over a month before we staked a tenner, mainly cos we didn't get off to a good start. Our bet this Saturday is £115. Our previous biggest stake was £75.

 

There is an element of "more confident" but mostly, it's stakes-management to get ever increasing returns. Our last two nailed-on doubles have netted us our two biggest profits. Saturday's £115 stake returns just over 185 which would be the first bet over £70 profit. On Tuesday we earned £69.09 which was 40 on ICT and Fulham, 109.09 back.

 

The key is that we are using bookies money to take more of it from them but playing within our means, managing the risks. Tuesday was our first time over £400 profit, Saturday will be our first over £500.

[tintin]

Cheers. All makes sense.

Mine own interest for next few weeks is hopefully seeing Millwall at 6/1 finish in top six.

[rocket_scientist]

We once lost a £20 stake on a freak result which put us back into the red, to the tune of £1.37. So mad was I that that bet lost, we staked £45 on Spurs 2/11 and Liverpool 2/9 to return £65, thereby getting our £20 back when they both won 2-0 at home. That was a risk for sure as we didn't have £45 in the bank to play with but it was a defining point, the reminder we needed to stop shooting for fish in a barrel and revert to our original philosophy, nailed-on doubles. It's also the shortest combined odds we've ever gone for.

 

ICT on Tuesday were hardly nailed on but because I had chosen Fulham, which was also his first pick, he sought out great value from the formbook which allowed us to risk less to give us our biggest-yet return.

[rocket_scientist]

BB and I going for Raith Rovers 4/11 and Montrose 2/5 (now 1/2 on McBookie, tempting bastards).

 

£12.50 staked, £23.86 back.

 

Sunday the two Madrids. Not decided how much to stake yet.

[rocket_scientist]

Lucky 13 for us today...

 

BB 9/13 picks, rs 12/13. 8/13 winning doubles = £51.03 up.

 

13 was unlucky for you kitns. Zero picks out of 2 and EIGHT losing doubles in a row.

 

kitns 13/26 picks, 3/13 doubles = £24.64 donated to the bookies.

 

You should give up now. You have no fucking idea.