Betting

[rocket_scientist]

I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making a lot of money each year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet

 

Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about.

 

Do you use betting exchanges yourself?

 

Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.

[minijc]

Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about.

 

Do you use betting exchanges yourself?

 

Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.

If I didn't know what I was talking about I wouldn't be arguing it, as I said earlier when there are guys that used to RUN bookies that tell me cash out is terrible value, of course my opinion is going to lean towards theirs.  There's a lot I could say but won't as it's unfair but I've worked in the industry and been playing it for 13 years now, I know a lot more than I let on.

 

As for an example, Gary Anderson when he won his first world championship, I had bet him at 16/1 on the betfair exchange, I managed to lay a little off to get just more than my stake back and still have the chance of a considerable win if he managed to deliver the goods, however had I just cashed out I'd have maybe gotten 3x my stake and that was it.

[minijc]

Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.

[rocket_scientist]

If I didn't know what I was talking about I wouldn't be arguing it, as I said earlier when there are guys that used to RUN bookies that tell me cash out is terrible value, of course my opinion is going to lean towards theirs.  There's a lot I could say but won't as it's unfair but I've worked in the industry and been playing it for 13 years now, I know a lot more than I let on.

 

As for an example, Gary Anderson when he won his first world championship, I had bet him at 16/1 on the betfair exchange, I managed to lay a little off to get just more than my stake back and still have the chance of a considerable win if he managed to deliver the goods, however had I just cashed out I'd have maybe gotten 3x my stake and that was it.

 

You contested something I said. You came on here and took issue with what I wrote.

 

I asked you to explain yourself. Now I am certain that you are unable to.

 

You're not "arguing" anything. All you've said is that cash out is "terrible value". This is nonsense. It makes no sense. Laying part of our likely winnings to recover stakes on the original bet is what betting exchanges are all about. The cash out options which appear in front of 99% of punters in the UK on their non-exchange sites is what we are talking about and how can they ever be classed as terrible value without giving an example, numerically? You argued that the bet the NE mannie cashed out wasn't worth 4,950 but you fail to say where you get this opinion of yours from?

 

Why would your opinion lean towards what anyone says without doing the due diligence for yourself?

 

That is insane. This is how governments run countries. They bank on our laziness and our stupidity.

 

There's a lot more you could say? You can't even back up what you said about a very simple concept. Worked in the industry? Fuck off. Nobody this stupid ever gets near a numeracy-based industry. You know more than you let on? Official secrets is it? You speak shite, as per the very first post to you on this thread, the one which you started by coming over oh so clever and now oh so secret.

 

Idiot.

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.

 

This is because you have no critical thinking ability. You can't do what Steve Jobs demands.

 

An offer is an offer. The worth or value of any bet is only determined when it is realised.

 

They're not enticing us. They have been forced to provide offers because the first one did it and the average punter is an intellectual retard who gets off on the power of the cash out without ever knowing whether it represents a good deal or not. But the algorithms that make up the cash out offers aren't magic nor black art, as nothing ever is to anyone who is numerate.

 

I wouldn't have cashed out that tenner for £1,500 or £2,500 when there was £7,400 on the table. That's taking the piss. But I would have at £4,000, as I'm guessing every moron would who deals in multiple accas and 740 to 1 shots. So the bookie didn't need to offer as much as they did but they don't sit there monitoring individual bets. It's an algorithm, naturally written in their favour but always reasonable enough not to lose face. McBookie's algorithms are much tighter than bet365's for their cash-outs so they will lose less over the course of a year than 365 will, even proportionately as their revenue is so much smaller.

[RicoS321]

Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.

 

But of course it is worth nothing until a final action is taken, that's a fact. You're being offered money based entirely on the value of something that might happen at a point in time, just like you are placing a bet based on odds at a point in time. As soon as you place the bet it is worth nothing - to you - until some other action takes place.

 

It's pretty easily demonstrated:

 

Put £10 in betting account

 

Bet £10, betting account = nothing

 

Bet wins, betting account = bet x odds

 

Bet loses, betting account = nothing

 

Bet cashed out, betting account = cash out value

 

At no other point will you receive money into your betting account.

[minijc]

The reason my opinion is likely to lean with the guys I talk to isn't because I'm lazy it's because they've explained exactly what the reasoning behind cash out is, you can do it in shops now, shops have self service betting terminals which runs off of online which allows customers to cash out, managers will use 'cash out' as a good reason as to why you should use those machines instead of doing a traditional paper coupon.

 

as for mcbookie I realise they are smaller, Bet365 are the kings of online betting, Mcbookie banned me from betting with them as did their parent company betvictor.

[RicoS321]

The reason my opinion is likely to lean with the guys I talk to isn't because I'm lazy it's because they've explained exactly what the reasoning behind cash out is, you can do it in shops now, shops have self service betting terminals which runs off of online which allows customers to cash out, managers will use 'cash out' as a good reason as to why you should use those machines instead of doing a traditional paper coupon.

 

as for mcbookie I realise they are smaller, Bet365 are the kings of online betting, Mcbookie banned me from betting with them as did their parent company betvictor.

 

Why? Did you send them a jobby?

 

Surely using the terminals is about data collection?

[minijc]

It's like dealing with an infant, isn't it?

 

Frightening how "adults" can go around like this. There are millions like him.

Millions like me that have won enough money to not worry about doing a proper job for a few years whilst betting and watching sports every day, yup, millions.

[rocket_scientist]

HAHAHA you are one of the worst, hence why you post on here cause you kept posting about others on the hat.

 

As for the step dad thing, it's you that's making shit up now, enjoy your day.

 

You can get off with your inability to back up what you said and your preposterous claims of knowledge you never had on the hat but you don't get off with it here. Your statement that "others know betting better than you and me" was an admission that there are, in fact, people on the planet that understand simple concepts that you can't grasp.

 

Get back to your sofa and let real life continue to pass you by.

[RicoS321]

Bookmakers make you an offer depending on the likelihood of the opposite happening, depending on how long is left in the match, you are maybe being offered 97% of your total returns but that's probably 1-2% less than what the bet is actually worth at the time, stick at it mate, I'll be a sheep and follow what traders and execs have said.

 

Aye, but that also has zero value to the bookie until you accept it. It's entirely notional. It is, for all intents and purposes, a new bet. Just as the bookie will not count your original bet as income until such times as you've lost that bet, the cash out cannot be assigned actual value until it has been accepted.

 

But, can I go back to my question again? Can I put my William Hill/Bet365 etc bet on some sort of exchange? Or is cash out my only option if I use non-Betfair account?

 

[minijc]

https://sportstradinglife.com/2015/03/is-cash-out-actually-bad-for-punters/

[rocket_scientist]

https://sportstradinglife.com/2015/03/is-cash-out-actually-bad-for-punters/

 

Oh jesus. Do you believe everything you read?

 

You know who wrote it yes? You know why they wrote it yes?

 

Did you see any numbers to back up their propaganda?

[rocket_scientist]

Interesting one just now. Double on our fav German team KFC Uerdingen 05 who are 2-0 up away at 4/6 with Havant & Waterlooville tonight at 1/4.

 

£40 double, cash out offered £67.21 at HT just now. Not taking it obviously as it's our "nailed on" double but those of you who aren't mathematically challenged will appreciate that 40 x 4/6 = 66.67, less than the offer. And it's not even in yet! So the offer is MORE than the original bet.

 

Why? Simple. The algorithms are built to cover all eventualities and when Havant & W's odds have dropped so dramatically, from the 1/4 we got them at v. 1/7 now, of course they're going to want to minimise their losses.

 

My other double running just now are Schweinfurt 05, also at 4/6 but with H & W at 1/7. 5-2 up after 66 mins, the cash out offer is 1.581 so there's no mystery about cash outs. It's all been written into the programming. The ONLY thing that matters is whether or not to use the option and that depends on the circumstances of each individual stake and is a decision for the punter only. How not having the option can benefit us is a ridiculous argument that only a thick cunt would try, or a party with a vested interest of course.

 

Edit: Borussia M II get one back, now 1-2 v KFC U 05. Cash out now 61.73 after 60 minutes. Again, exactly what we might expect given that it only takes one goal from the home side to sink our £40 stake. No chance I'm cashing out ever on this double. KFC won 7-0 the first time I backed them

 

1-3 now, 68.07 offered.

[tlg1903]

I really can't believe how much time y'all have wasted on that debate.  Interesting read in parts though so fair dues on that.    My tuppeny bits worth would be that cash out started as a means to get more people betting with which ever sight first came up with it and all the others then followed suit.  I really can't see it making or losing the bookies anything particularly significant.  Ultimately it's just like betting, it's great if your bet was destined to lose and not so if not. I've used it a few times and I'm up because of it.

[rocket_scientist]

As I said at the start of the thread, finding value is the key. It doesn't matter what the bet is nor what the market is, it's the likelihood of the event that you're betting on happening against the odds offered that matters and this is always in the eye of the beholder, the punter.

 

Bookies make mistakes and the best time to find them is when the first sites post up. I've long been advocating putting bets on early, up to a week in advance and whilst sometimes this can bite you as the odds improve towards kick off, more often than not you get much better returns.

 

Examples; as I said we got Havant & Waterlooville at 1/4 this week and they came in to 1/7 before kick off. 1.25 isn't quite double 1.143 but it's a massive difference. Today we've got a more than double situation. I put Dunfermline in a number of bets at 4/11 at the start of the week. They're 1/7 now. 1.364 is a two and a half times bigger return which is why the £78.13 cash out offered on our £75 double isn't value, neither is the £37.44 being offered on another £35 double which includes Dunfermline, both doubles on Saturday games.

 

When your Cash out offers are more than your stakes on bets that haven't run yet, you've done a job on the bookie, whatever the outcome.

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

Has anyone got any in-play strategies? I'm starting to look at heavily-fancied teams who don't score in the first 10 or 15 minutes. My impression is that we can get more than double or three times the value (if they don't score early and it's still 0-0). Better still if the opposition score like Sunderland at Fulham last night.

[RicoS321]

Right, I just spotted that I had £60 in my bet365 account. Fit's the recommendations for this week?

[BobbyBiscuit]

Right, I just spotted that I had £60 in my bet365 account. Fit's the recommendations for this week?

 

Cash out.

 

[BigAl]

Cash out.

 

 

[RicoS321]

 

  Good one sir!

 

It must've been there for about two years, so I've nae missed it. Taking the money and running would more than likely be the best option given that I don't have any time to properly assess the current fitba markets. It'll probably go on 2-0 the dons with Shinnie first scorer instead though.

[rocket_scientist]

Sticking £60 on a bet like that is tantamount to giving them your money.

 

Given the time of season - football wise - cash out is probably is the safest thing to do. There are some crazy results happening as there always are in the final month.

 

Example; BB and I on Saturday had our first time where both our picks lost and they weren't earning us much to begin with, Liverpool and Monaco. Fortunately our Feyenoord and Atatlanta came in yesterday to prevent 3 losses in a row but £85 up after 13/20 doubles, we won't be punting big stakes over the next couple of weeks.

 

I've got 3 "nailed on doubles" running plus a "nailed on treble" venture with 3 of us 4, all of which are in profit, by proportionately very similar amounts depending on how long we've been doing them and providing an overall balance of just over £500, which has stalled over the last 2/3 weeks. On the most recently started, my mate suggested PSG for his pick yesterday and I did something I've not done before and questioned the wisdom of it. I texted back they're 1/12? He went Lecce instead (at 2/11) which came in to put us back up to £45 profit whereas PSG failed to win last night. On our NOD which has been running for 4 months, we lost £105 on Saturday (thanks to my dumbass Liverpool pick - who didn't have to win) but got back £71 of it yesterday thanks to his Sporting Hee Hon and my Feyenoord. We are starting to fish in the European lower leagues now though. The additional £35 double on Ayr and Dunfermline which saved our losing treble stake on Saturday is probably the last of the really predictable nailed on stuff in Scotland, although I did have Celtic at 4/9 yesterday to complete a couple of trebles running over last week.

 

Money in the bank just now should stay there if football betting is your thing.

 

Edit: Rico, I'm not saying that Aberdeen won't win 2-0 and that Shinnie won't score first. I hope you're right but the chances of being able to predict both the correct score AND the first scorer are so remote and this is a massive market earner for the bookies. The "scorecast" returns are never worth anything like the double of correct score AND first scorer, which they don't allow you to put on these days (I think). A typical example of punters being sucked in by 80 or 125 to 1 whereas even by their own books, the returns on these type of doubles should be double plus.

 

Having said that, I got a text from my PSG/Lecce mate with 15 minutes to go saying he was waiting on 2-1 Man U for a grand. I asked what was the stake/what was this coming on top of/is there a cash out available and he replied "Free bet with bet victor scorer time and result". Happy days but how often can we ever expect a punt like that to come in? If being serious about making money from the bookies is the goal, speculative stuff like correct scores and first scorers is pissing money away.

 

[RicoS321]

Edit: Rico, I'm not saying that Aberdeen won't win 2-0 and that Shinnie won't score first. I hope you're right but the chances of being able to predict both the correct score AND the first scorer are so remote and this is a massive market earner for the bookies. The "scorecast" returns are never worth anything like the double of correct score AND first scorer, which they don't allow you to put on these days (I think). A typical example of punters being sucked in by 80 or 125 to 1 whereas even by their own books, the returns on these type of doubles should be double plus.

 

Having said that, I got a text from my PSG/Lecce mate with 15 minutes to go saying he was waiting on 2-1 Man U for a grand. I asked what was the stake/what was this coming on top of/is there a cash out available and he replied "Free bet with bet victor scorer time and result". Happy days but how often can we ever expect a punt like that to come in? If being serious about making money from the bookies is the goal, speculative stuff like correct scores and first scorers is pissing money away.

 

I was just joking about the dons, but yer second paragraph actually makes me think twice about it... given I had no idea I had the £60 in that account, I'm pretty much treating it as a free bet.

 

However, I'm not confident the dons will win 2-0, nor Shinnie get the first, so I'll probably have a swatch around at the other games later in the week and see fit the deal is. I'll maybe try something more long term like you guys have been doing, with a system in place until I inevitably lose all the money during the world cup.

[rocket_scientist]

I was just joking about the dons, but yer second paragraph actually makes me think twice about it... given I had no idea I had the £60 in that account, I'm pretty much treating it as a free bet.

 

However, I'm not confident the dons will win 2-0, nor Shinnie get the first, so I'll probably have a swatch around at the other games later in the week and see fit the deal is. I'll maybe try something more long term like you guys have been doing, with a system in place until I inevitably lose all the money during the world cup.

 

The World Cup is a betting graveyard.

 

I've stuck on Juventus next Saturday in a couple of doubles, with Blackburn on Sat and with Fulham on Sunday. The latter pays almost evens so even if you stuck a tenner on some odds on stuff, a short-priced double coming in would mean you've got 70 to play with rather than 60, and away you go... for next season.

 

The fact you forgot you had it doesn't mean you should piss it away. It's still money, their money that you can realise or add to. I've often stuck a remaining balance on a last punt. I did it on a Saturday in fact and got very lucky with a late Peterhead winner (2/9 ffs) to keep one of my bookie accounts alive.

[rocket_scientist]

Since you're on bet365, I strongly suggest you take Juventus at 1/6 today. I predict that their price will crash during the week as the big money and the pro punters lump on. Doubles with anything else. 1/6 is great value.