Betting

[minijc]

Rocket, how do you think bookies get to the price they put up?  It's through an algorithm, the guys I know that have their own pay top money to get them then they maintain them by updating at their end after each round of games, you can think what you like as I know more about what some have to do to get a bet on and how deep they go in to finding the value to then make a consistent profit.

 

 

From November last year I've won more money than I'd have earned in 2 years had I stuck at my last job.

[rocket_scientist]

Rocket, how do you think bookies get to the price they put up?  It's through an algorithm, the guys I know that have their own pay top money to get them then they maintain them by updating at their end after each round of games, you can think what you like as I know more about what some have to do to get a bet on and how deep they go in to finding the value to then make a consistent profit.

 

Somebody half my age and less than 15/20% experience in this field is telling me about how the industry works? How does that work?

 

Nobody is stupid enough to pay the bookies for their price-setting algorithms. It's too obvious to pay money for. Plus, they make BIG mistakes ALL the time, Alaves and Melilla on Sunday 11 a.m. kick offs being classic examples.

 

 

From November last year I've won more money than I'd have earned in 2 years had I stuck at my last job.

 

If that's true - and I am certain that it's not - then you must be a very lucky guy.

[minijc]

Somebody half my age and less than 15/20% experience in this field is telling me about how the industry works? How does that work?

 

Nobody is stupid enough to pay the bookies for their price-setting algorithms. It's too obvious to pay money for. Plus, they make BIG mistakes ALL the time, Alaves and Melilla on Sunday 11 a.m. kick offs being classic examples.

 

 

If that's true - and I am certain that it's not - then you must be a very lucky guy.

We're never going to see eye to eye with this, you don't believe a thing I say and that's fair enough but I've got no reason to lie, I wish you well with your betting for the rest of the season and beyond.

 

 

Yes I am very lucky, huge chunk of luck that then allowed me to give the full time punting a go.

[rocket_scientist]

We're never going to see eye to eye with this, you don't believe a thing I say and that's fair enough but I've got no reason to lie, I wish you well with your betting for the rest of the season and beyond.

 

 

Yes I am very lucky, huge chunk of luck that then allowed me to give the full time punting a go.

 

You sir, are a fucking liar. You always "know guys" who do this or do that - you NEVER put forward any wisdom of your own - and then you put forward a bunch of shit that you don't have the intellect to understand and you excuse yourself by stating that you're "still learning".

 

Newsflash buddy; we are ALL still learning, well those of us with a growth mindset (ref: Professor Carol Dweck, Stanford University) and the capacity to learn.

 

You don't even know what an algorithm is, far less understand why your "mates" do NOT spend money buying them because if they did, they would be as intellectually retarded as you.

[minijc]

You sir, are a fucking liar. You always "know guys" who do this or do that - you NEVER put forward any wisdom of your own - and then you put forward a bunch of shit that you don't have the intellect to understand and you excuse yourself by stating that you're "still learning".

 

Newsflash buddy; we are ALL still learning, well those of us with a growth mindset (ref: Professor Carol Dweck, Stanford University) and the capacity to learn.

 

You don't even know what an algorithm is, far less understand why your "mates" do NOT spend money buying them because if they did, they would be as intellectually retarded as you.

Quoting this just to show that you can't help yourself and always have to make it personal, you'll be aware of who Tony Bloom is yeah, do you think he got to where he is betting without having an algorithm and doing a power of work, you seem to apply the logic that if you haven't heard of it before it can't be true, NEWSFLASH for you Rocket, the majority of pro punters use algorithms to help them exploit bookies, numerous bettors have their systems and own ratings in order to beat the bookie, believe it or not I don't really care but I'll happily send you more information in private that backs me up on this and it may open your eyes but I doubt you'll entertain that as you are hell bent on trying to show how smart you are.

[rocket_scientist]

Bloom was educated, something you weren't.

 

Bloom is married (to a psychologist) and has a daughter, two things you are unlikely to ever have.

 

Do you know what an algorithm is?

[minijc]

Bloom was educated, something you weren't.

 

Bloom is married (to a psychologist) and has a daughter, two things you are unlikely to ever have.

 

Do you know what an algorithm is?

Yes, it's something that many pro punters use for their betting.

[rocket_scientist]

Yes, it's something that many pro punters use for their betting.

 

What is it? Can you describe what it is?

[rocket_scientist]

And as a professional punter yourself earning more than £1,000 a week of clear profit, what system do you employ to be as lucky as you claim to be?

[rocket_scientist]

I know that you have to spend a grand a day minimum seven days a week to earn as much as you say you do. You don't have the balls, the intellect nor the resources to be that big a player.

[rocket_scientist]

So you've been caught lying. Again. And it's my fault for calling you out?

 

Fuck off ye fraud. This is Aberdeen.

[minijc]

And as a professional punter yourself earning more than £1,000 a week of clear profit, what system do you employ to be as lucky as you claim to be?

For starters I never said how much clear profit I make, I study the races each day, try to watch as much races as I can or get replays then go over them, as well as a few other things, NFL I tend to bet props and scoring markets, I watch a lot of it, I go over teams match ups for each week, darts I watch a lot of pick up on certain things that sometimes pay off but sometimes don't, lot of stats are available and easy to find which comes in handy.

 

I know that you have to spend a grand a day minimum seven days a week to earn as much as you say you do. You don't have the balls, the intellect nor the resources to be that big a player.

see there you go again thinking that you know absolutely everything when you don't, how do you know what I need to spend to make money?  You're guessing and you have no idea how much money I've made, as I said I got a lucky hit which allowed me to start out and things have been going well.

[rocket_scientist]

Get yersel te fuck min. We welcome debate in the North East. We don't tolerate tooters. If you had a relative who was NE and over the age of 50, he or she could explain to your ignorant stupid mind what a tooter is.

 

Nobody in the history of betting hits as much as 20% profit on stake over a sustained period. It's impossible when the book is stacked against and EVERY book is stacked against.

 

And you did say what you earned. Twice p.a. you said since November.

[minijc]

Get yersel te fuck min. We welcome debate in the North East. We don't tolerate tooters. If you had a relative who was NE and over the age of 50, he or she could explain to your ignorant stupid mind.

 

Nobody in the history of betting hits as much as 20% profit on stake over a sustained period. It's impossible when the book is stacked against and EVERY book is stacked against.

Unless you have an algo which levels the playing field.

 

Anyways rocket there's no reasoning with you, have fun cashing out.

[rocket_scientist]

Unless you have an algo which levels the playing field.

 

Anyways rocket there's no reasoning with you, have fun cashing out.

 

It's impossible to reason with people who don't know what they're talking about.

 

You make yourself look more foolish with your last four words. My only cash out this season was Celtic on Sunday in the 37th minute for 2.243 times the stake. That would have been a lost stake on a losing bet otherwise, rather than more than doubling our money. I used the cash out option sparingly last season but again it worked in my favour and by maintaining a spreadsheet to measure it, was able not to cash out too early on bets I considered were in danger. You can dismiss the cash out option all you want but until you produce one reasonable argument against this additional punter option, you continue to kid yourself that someone told you something so it must be true.

[minijc]

It's impossible to reason with people who don't know what they're talking about.

 

You make yourself look more foolish with your last four words. My only cash out this season was Celtic on Sunday in the 37th minute for 2.243 times the stake. That would have been a lost stake on a losing bet otherwise, rather than more than doubling our money. I used the cash out option sparingly last season but again it worked in my favour and by maintaining a spreadsheet to measure it, was able not to cash out too early on bets I considered were in danger. You can dismiss the cash out option all you want but until you produce one reasonable argument against this additional punter option, you continue to kid yourself that someone told you something so it must be true.

I do know what I'm talking about it's you that clearly doesn't, you don't believe that there is numerous punters out their with their own algorithms, ratings and systems across all the major sports, it's how they manage to consistently beat the bookie, as for your cash out, use the exchange, you'll make more money if you are hell bent on getting out of bets.

[RicoS321]

as for your cash out, use the exchange, you'll make more money if you are hell bent on getting out of bets.

 

How does this work then minijc? If I have a £10 bet with Bet365, I can sell that bet on an exchange? Or do I have to place my bet on the exchange in the first place?

[rocket_scientist]

Every professional punter has their own "system", as do many amateur enthusiasts. They don't have their own algorithms and ratings though, the former because if you knew what it was, it's used in the industry for price setting in-play (not risk and value assessments by the punter) and the latter because ratings systems are freely available.

 

You fail to understand that by not cashing out, you lose the stake. We've already established that you don't know how betting exchanges work. You failed to provide a single example of when you laid off an existing bet to make profit.

 

Edit: before answering Rico's excellent question, take some sagely advice. Stop and think. And don't keep digging when you're in over your head already.

[minijc]

How does this work then minijc? If I have a £10 bet with Bet365, I can sell that bet on an exchange? Or do I have to place my bet on the exchange in the first place?

You'd lay a bit off, I done it with Gary Anderson when he won the worlds for the first time, effectively took my stake out but in general for football if you are waiting on one game and you want to get out you'd be best laying them off on the exchange you'll get more than you would from a cashout.

Every professional punter has their own "system", as do many amateur enthusiasts. They don't have their own algorithms and ratings though, the former because if you knew what it was, it's used in the industry for price setting in-play (not risk and value assessments) and the latter because ratings systems are freely available.

 

You fail to understand that by not cashing out, you lose the stake. We've already established that you don't know how betting exchanges work. You failed to provide a single example of when you laid off an existing bet to make profit.

You're wide of the mark and not willing to take in anything I say so you're just being dismissive, it's a fact that pro punters have their own algorithms that what helps them find value compared to how the bookies have priced a market it, they don't just pluck a bet out of thin air, you stick to your 1/2 average price, these guys using their own ratings and algorithms will be making a mockery of that average price because they are going deeper in to it than you'll ever know or believe.

[rocket_scientist]

You'd lay a bit off, I done it with Gary Anderson when he won the worlds for the first time, effectively took my stake out but in general for football if you are waiting on one game and you want to get out you'd be best laying them off on the exchange you'll get more than you would from a cashout.You're wide of the mark and not willing to take in anything I say so you're just being dismissive, it's a fact that pro punters have their own algorithms that what helps them find value compared to how the bookies have priced a market it, they don't just pluck a bet out of thin air, you stick to your 1/2 average price, these guys using their own ratings and algorithms will be making a mockery of that average price because they are going deeper in to it than you'll ever know or believe.

 

Prove that you're not bullshitting. Give us the numbers on your Anderson bets.

 

You're saying there are pro punters doing things you don't do and yet you say you're a pro punter?

 

How can an algorithm determine the value of outcome probability?

[rocket_scientist]

Also, you fail to understand what I said, which was delivered in plain English by the way.

 

My average pick price has been 1.49 this season after 13 picks, which as a pro punter you will recognise as the equivalent of 1/2. This included Norwich on Saturday at 10/11 and Celtic on Sunday at 2/9. Only an imbecile would even consider the possibility of an imbecile deliberately targeting a 1/2 price.

[minijc]

Prove that you're not bullshitting. Give us the numbers on your Anderson bets.

 

You're saying there are pro punters doing things you don't do and yet you say you're a pro punter?

 

How can an algorithm determine the value of outcome probability?

I backed Anderson at 16/1 he was soon in cut in the market after 2 good performances, can't remember the exact odds I came out at as it was 3 years ago, again I've got no reason to lie.

As I said originally technically I am a pro punter as that's my main source of income, I'm not willing to pay for my own algorithm.

 

 

Guys will input their own data, for example a lot of guys use the shots on target or expected goals as one of their main ratings which they then put in to their algorithms, they'll then run them to determin their own price and then take advantage of a team depending on that.

 

Also, you fail to understand what I said, which was delivered in plain English by the way.

 

My average pick price has been 1.49 this season after 13 picks, which as a pro punter you will recognise as the equivalent of 1/2. This included Norwich on Saturday at 10/11 and Celtic on Sunday at 2/9. Only an imbecile would even consider the possibility of an imbecile deliberately targeting a 1/2 price.

And you've misunderstood me but keep going.

[rocket_scientist]

I've not misunderstood you. You've not said anything coherent to understand or misunderstand.

 

Going after 16/1 shots is not how serious punters beat the bookies. But you say that you're so good at it that you're not allowed to play anymore as you have had four accounts restricted.

 

How can cashing out a bet for profit that would've gone on to lose be an unwise decision? How can you make more money by not cashing out?

 

Take my example from Sunday; a treble on bet365, 2 games leading by one goal with 6 & 7 minutes to go, one game 0-0 after 37 minutes. How can that be laid off on betfair "to make more money"?

[minijc]

I've not misunderstood you. You've not said anything coherent to understand or misunderstand.

 

Going after 16/1 shots is not how serious punters beat the bookies. But you say that you're so good at it that you're not allowed to play anymore as you have had four accounts restricted.

 

How can cashing out a bet for profit that would've gone on to lose be an unwise decision? How can you make more money by not cashing out?

 

Take my example from Sunday; a treble on bet365, 2 games leading by one goal with 6 & 7 minutes to go, one game 0-0 after 37 minutes. How can that be laid off on betfair "to make more money"?

HAHAHA get yourself to fuck you're an egomaniac that can't take other peoples opinions, all you've done has is slate me and name call because you can't handle that I'm right, all of this stuff is fairly each to find out.

 

As for cash out, we done this a few months ago, I'm not continuing it as you claimed a bet doesn't have a value when I said it does, so we are done, it's absolutely pointless continuing this with you.

[rocket_scientist]

Shots on target against last week's opposition correlates to the probability of winning this week against different opposition and the determination of the value of this week's odds?

 

Don't you see how stupid this sounds? They're lining you up to sell you an expensive piece of software that doesn't work. In a game (football) you don't punt in. There's one born every minute. Don't you be the one. Love & Peace.