Betting

[minijc]

So you're saying that the majority of cash outs are exercised when the bets would've gone on to win anyway?

Yip, don't get me wrong there's plenty that do catch it right but as I've said before it's a short term gain, long term loser however I've seen plenty of betting slips where cash out was used and people have done themselves out of lots of money.

[rocket_scientist]

Yip, don't get me wrong there's plenty that do catch it right but as I've said before it's a short term gain, long term loser however I've seen plenty of betting slips where cash out was used and people have done themselves out of lots of money.

 

Even your terminology makes no sense. There's no short term or long term. The only thing that matters is whether it was the right or wrong decision but having the option can only benefit the punter as this option wasn't available before.

[minijc]

Even your terminology makes no sense. There's no short term or long term. The only thing that matters is whether it was the right or wrong decision but having the option can only benefit the punter as this option wasn't available before.

See it's pointless and it was available before, use betfair exchange, even now using it you'd make more than a standard cashout offer from a bookie.

[rocket_scientist]

See it's pointless and it was available before, use betfair exchange, even now using it you'd make more than a standard cashout offer from a bookie.

 

You're right. It is pointless to debate this point but be aware of the possibility that you have been misled to believe something that has no data to support it.

[minijc]

You're right. It is pointless to debate this point but be aware of the possibility that you have been misled to believe something that has no data to support it.

Rocket, speak to people that work in the trading side of a bookies and they'll tell you how good cash out is for the bookies, you'll also never agree with what I say even if I went and got the proof needed, you batter on doing what you do.

[rocket_scientist]

Rocket, speak to people that work in the trading side of a bookies and they'll tell you how good cash out is for the bookies, you'll also never agree with what I say even if I went and got the proof needed, you batter on doing what you do.

 

There is nobody in Aberdeen who works "in the trading side" of the bookies. And even if there were, the only people who would believe that the cash out option favours them would be the gullible. The ONLY data that matters is saved v. lost on bets where the option was exercised. This isn't long or short term. It's an instant decision and an additional risk assessment option for the punter.

[minijc]

There is nobody in Aberdeen who works "in the trading side" of the bookies. And even if there were, the only people who would believe that the cash out option favours them would be the gullible. The ONLY data that matters is saved v. lost on bets where the option was exercised. This isn't long or short term. It's an instant decision and an additional risk assessment option for the punter.

Like I said you batter on

[rocket_scientist]

Like I said you batter on

 

I only ever asked you to justify your erroneous position. You are saying that there is more money saved by the bookies than is lost by exercising the cash out option. They told you this for a reason. They used terminology such as long and short term to confuse you where it can't possibly apply. If you never use the cash out option, you're not conducting ongoing risk assessments. The pro punter makes money from the cash out options.

[minijc]

I only ever asked you to justify your erroneous position. You are saying that there is more money saved by the bookies than is lost by exercising the cash out option. They told you this for a reason. They used terminology such as long and short term to confuse you where it can't possibly apply. If you never use the cash out option, you're not conducting ongoing risk assessments. The pro punter makes money from the cash out options.

I know several pro punters and none use it, they trade on the exchange but you continue to pass off your opinion as fact, I'm done arguing Rocket as we'll never agree on this, the very first bookie that started cash out didn't go ahead with it to benefit the punter ffs.

[rocket_scientist]

You get 8/1 and more for a 0-0 correct score. Do you know what minute of the game that your cash out becomes 1.25 or when it becomes 1.5?

[rocket_scientist]

I'm done arguing Rocket as we'll never agree on this

 

It's ok to agree to disagree. It's not ok to cop out.

 

Before we can agree to disagree, we need to crystallise our positions in order to see our difference.

 

You told the AFC posting community that you were a professional punter. Now you're saying you know pro punters.

 

I'm wondering if you even know how betting exchanges work? Can you give us one example where you laid on betfair against an outcome you'd backed on a website? Or do you back the other outcomes and against your original bet in-play?

 

If you're going to succeed in your chosen profession, you have to at least understand the mechanics of the game. Dismissing the cash out option as a bookies benefit suggests to me that you don't know anything about betting.

[minijc]

It's ok to agree to disagree. It's not ok to cop out.

 

Before we can agree to disagree, we need to crystallise our positions in order to see our difference.

 

You told the AFC posting community that you were a professional punter. Now you're saying you know pro punters.

 

I'm wondering if you even know how betting exchanges work? Can you give us one example where you laid on betfair against an outcome you'd backed on a website? Or do you back the other outcomes and against your original bet in-play?

 

If you're going to succeed in your chosen profession, you have to at least understand the mechanics of the game. Dismissing the cash out option as a bookies benefit suggests to me that you don't know anything about betting.

It's not a cop out, we argued before and you didn't take in anything I said, called me names and done your usual, since Jan betting has been where I've been making money, so technically I am a professional but I'm still learning along the way, I've used cash out a few times previously, used it the other week purely because I was getting offered double my stake on a player I knew wouldn't play the NFL match he was rumoured to be starting, causing his price to come in.  As for knowing professional gamblers I know a few, a couple are former traders, guys that didn't like the way the industry is going and one that had a huge say in a major betting firm starting cash out, there's no real point in me saying anymore as you won't believe any of that and that's fair enough.

[RicoS321]

Cash out is clearly an excellent option if you know when to use it. I think it's very difficult to argue otherwise.

 

Whether the bookies lose less money by having it as an option or not is really neither here nor there. As a tool it's entirely agnostic of that. If you're not in attendance at a match (or event you're betting on) then - simply due to lack of information - you're probably equally as likely to lose money by sticking with a soon-to-be-losing bet than you are to lose an increment of money you could have won by cashing out. It's something that bookies and traders will not have data on (because it didn't happen) and so their statistics will be flawed. It's all safe to say that there a lot of traders who know fuck all about anything just as in any other line of work.

[rocket_scientist]

It's something that bookies and traders will not have data on (because it didn't happen) and so their statistics will be flawed.

 

Not quite. It is a VERY EASY compute.

 

Every time the cash out is used, the software can be programmed to determine whether the cashed out bet went on to win anyway or whether the cash out worked for the punter (because the bet went on to lose).

 

The difference between the profit and loss informs us whether the cash out option works in favour of the bookies or whether it favours the punter. There is no long term nor short term. It's a very simple calculation.

 

People who say they never use it or never would use it should not be in the risk assessment business. People who can't explain why it's such a bad option for the punter should not be in the risk assessment business. People who regurgitate what they've been told without understanding what they're talking about should not be in the risk assessment business. People who trust what bookmakers tell them should not be in the risk assessment business. People who receive gifts from bookmakers - whether champagne or hampers or tickets to a sporting event etc. - should not be in the risk assessment business. The bookies know who the real winners are from their betting history strategies. The losers get incentives to stick with the same bookie.

[minijc]

Rocket, I've had 4 accounts heavily restricted in the last year, 2 other books that won't entertain my business at all but yeah I'm a loser, good one.

[RicoS321]

Not quite. It is a VERY EASY compute.

 

Every time the cash out is used, the software can be programmed to determine whether the cashed out bet went on to win anyway or whether the cash out worked for the punter (because the bet went on to lose).

 

The difference between the profit and loss informs us whether the cash out option works in favour of the bookies or whether it favours the punter. There is no long term nor short term. It's a very simple calculation.

 

I know that, but that ignores the bets where the punter ignored the cash out offered though. How are those measured and are they included in the calculation of success?

[RicoS321]

Rocket, I've had 4 accounts heavily restricted in the last year, 2 other books that won't entertain my business at all but yeah I'm a loser, good one.

 

How does that work like? You win the game so you get banned?

[minijc]

How does that work like? You win the game so you get banned?

Sometimes bookies don't like certain punters business, please feel free to use the online casino and games though, wanks that they are.

[rocket_scientist]

Rocket, I've had 4 accounts heavily restricted in the last year, 2 other books that won't entertain my business at all but yeah I'm a loser, good one.

 

I didn't say that you were a loser. Read more carefully. How could I possibly know one way or the other?

 

When you said "you're still learning", that was an alarm bell. There is NOTHING to learn once you know the game.

[rocket_scientist]

Sometimes bookies don't like certain punters business, please feel free to use the online casino and games though, wanks that they are.

 

Online casinos and games - like the roulette machines in high street bookies - are ONLY for the feeble minded.

 

You NEVER see a SUCCESSFUL professional punter using them.

 

For reasons too obvious to articulate.

 

[rocket_scientist]

I know that, but that ignores the bets where the punter ignored the cash out offered though. How are those measured and are they included in the calculation of success?

 

That can't be measured, obviously, but nor do they affect the question of whether the cash out option is a help or hindrance to the punter.

[minijc]

I didn't say that you were a loser. Read more carefully. How could I possibly know one way or the other?

 

When you said "you're still learning", that was an alarm bell. There is NOTHING to learn once you know the game.

There's always something to learn Rocket, there's a reason why I don't bet soccer that much and never seriously punt it unless it's a bet from someone I trust, horse racing, darts and NFL is where I make my cash, NFL the real earner.

Online casinos and games - like the roulette machines in high street bookies - are ONLY for the feeble minded.

 

You NEVER see a SUCCESSFUL professional punter using them.

 

For reasons too obvious to articulate.

 

Yip I totally agree and that's why I never touch them but it's funny that when an account gets closed they always make sure to tell you that you are still eligible to play casino games on that account.

[rocket_scientist]

There's always something to learn Rocket, there's a reason why I don't bet soccer that much and never seriously punt it unless it's a bet from someone I trust, horse racing, darts and NFL is where I make my cash, NFL the real earner.

 

I am amazed that you have decided, as a professional punter, that Horses, Arras and NFL is more predictable than fitba. That makes zero sense to me. In fact, with only three outcomes, this will be why football is THE most favoured book to bet on by the professional punters I've ever met.

 

Someone you trust? You mean there is somebody out there with a unique gift for predicting football games? Is his win record better than 90% for an average pick price of 1/2? Does he tell you about the ones he loses? Have you run your own book on his recommendations and found him to be a profitable source of tips? What sort of price? Does he know about odds on aways? Do you know about odds on aways?

[minijc]

I am amazed that you have decided, as a professional punter, that Horses, Arras and NFL is more predictable than fitba. That makes zero sense to me. In fact, with only three outcomes, this will be why football is THE most favoured book to bet on by the professional punters I've ever met.

 

Someone you trust? You mean there is somebody out there with a unique gift for predicting football games? Is his win record better than 90% for an average pick price of 1/2? Does he tell you about the ones he loses? Have you run your own book on his recommendations and found him to be a profitable source of tips? What sort of price? Does he know about odds on aways? Do you know about odds on aways?

See this is what you do, you think your opinion is the only one that matters and nothing can change that, you do realise that not many punters are profitable at football yeah?  It's one of the hardest sports to be up on over a long period of time, one friend of mines has his own algorithms which helps him to find an edge, I won't go in to much more as it's not fair.  As for my own betting, I've found that NFL and darts are what I'm best at working out, horses next but horses is something that I love in general.

[rocket_scientist]

See this is what you do, you think your opinion is the only one that matters and nothing can change that, you do realise that not many punters are profitable at football yeah?  It's one of the hardest sports to be up on over a long period of time,

 

You misrepresent the record. I did not, and do not, think that my "opinion is the only one that matters". In fact, presenting to 100+ specialists in another country next week, one of the themes I will be putting forward is the requirement to recognise the distinction between facts and opinions.

 

I LOVE differing opinions. It's how we ALL learn. This is another statement I will be saying to encourage audience participation, debates and other points of view being absolutely necessary for us ALL to learn and grow.

 

It's a fact that many are incapable of growing because they lack the intellect and/or critical thinking skills. This is acutely and painfully witnessed in written communication skills.

 

Then there is pride, something that Marcellus Wallace warned us about.

 

one friend of mines has his own algorithms which helps him to find an edge, I won't go in to much more as it's not fair.

 

You are not capable of "going into it much more" not because it's "not fair" but because it doesn't exist. There has NEVER been an algorithm (let alone more than one) built that can help with predicting the outcomes of football matches. This is bullshit, it is a line being spun to an impressionable gullible fool who does not know anything about anything.

 

 

As for my own betting, I've found that NFL and darts are what I'm best at working out, horses next but horses is something that I love in general.

 

If you were an honest man, you would look at how much you are winning or losing over the year and relate this back to what you might have been earning had you got yourself a minimum wage job and had a reasonable work ethic to go with it. I did a paper 4 years ago called "The Mirror and The Great Pretenders", the title of it being borrowed from the great song by the Platters almost 65 years ago and referenced within my text.

 

Like the 18 year old barmaid in my local tonight and the 34 year old punter wearing a shite Stone Island, you don't listen enough. As the Zen story goes, you are so full of your own opinions and speculations, you need to first empty your cup before you can take anything in.