Betting

[rocket_scientist]

£20 on Real (BB) + Atletico (me). £32.14 back.

[rocket_scientist]

After Bobby's Accrington and my Wigan tonight, we will be either £50.68 or £76.23 in profit.

 

My mate and I suffered a £115 drop on Saturday thanks to 10 man Ayr, our heaviest defeat yet. It would have put us over £500 but we still have more than £300 of bookies money to play with in this, the last month of the campaign and usually one of the more volatile betting markets.

 

The reason why the bookies make profits every year is because the average punter is stupid. Ladbrokes even made an ad to target their intellectually-retarded market with their accumulators, that Mr Brightside being a face you could never tire of kicking and the token black guy, the one with the friendly face. The bookies are laffing at us. We will be laffing at them next month, the only remaining question being by how much.

 

[rocket_scientist]

For the record, 2 x £15 doubles this weekend.

 

Wigan away for BB, Marseille for me.

 

Sunday Inter away for BB + my Chelsea.

 

Never seen anyone pick so many aways for nailed on picks but he keeps on delivering.

 

For the purists watching, only reason I've not upped the stakes to a third or half our stash is that I'm anticipating that my 14 consecutive winning streak can't go on for ever. A weird sense of impending failure (at some stage) and realism getting in the way of my usual account management strategy.

[rocket_scientist]

Last 3 weeks odds against AFC opponents;

 

Hearts 19/5

Motherwell 5/2

Killie 13/5

 

The bookies rate McInnes' Aberdeen more than I do!

[tlg1903]

Good bets today

 

Lazio

Lazio v samp over 2.5

Brugges v liege btts

Az v feyenoord bbts and over 2.5

 

 

Lazio 4-0

Brugges 4-4

Az v feynoord 0-3

 

3 out of 4 isn't bad

[rocket_scientist]

12/17 doubles, BB 13/17, rs 16/17, balance +£105.34

 

Top of the table away double for us tomorrow, Wigan and Blackburn.

 

Will be +92.84 or +125.58 after that.

[rocket_scientist]

Fools doing 75/100+ to 1 accas are pissing money away.

 

You're spikkin total shite min.

 

I seen a NE mannie cash out a tenner 7-fold on Saturday for £4,915.32 when Man Utd went 2-1 up.

 

It would've have returned £7,400 if he had held on but 490/1, that's awesome in anyone's language.

 

So it can be done. Fish can be shot in a barrel. He had Aberdeen to beat Killie in that line too 

[RicoS321]

You're spikkin total shite min.

 

I seen a NE mannie cash out a tenner 7-fold on Saturday for £4,915.32 when Man Utd went 2-1 up.

 

It would've have returned £7,400 if he had held on but 490/1

 

Bottler. Was it McInnes?

[minijc]

You're spikkin total shite min.

 

I seen a NE mannie cash out a tenner 7-fold on Saturday for £4,915.32 when Man Utd went 2-1 up.

 

It would've have returned £7,400 if he had held on but 490/1, that's awesome in anyone's language.

 

So it can be done. Fish can be shot in a barrel. He had Aberdeen to beat Killie in that line too 

Well done to the guy but cash out is never value, an easy way for bookies to save some money.

[rocket_scientist]

Well done to the guy but cash out is never value, an easy way for bookies to save some money.

 

Now it's you who's spikkin shite. Cashing out 5k if Spurs had equalised would've been an easy way to relieve the bookies of cash!

[minijc]

Now it's you who's spikkin shite. Cashing out 5k if Spurs had equalised would've been an easy way to relieve the bookies of cash!

I'm not and I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out, his bet was worth more than he cashed out for at the time so he's cost himself some money to start with.

[rocket_scientist]

I'm not and I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out, his bet was worth more than he cashed out for at the time so he's cost himself some money to start with.

 

He picked up £5k for a £10 stake. It was not guaranteed that his £7,400 would come in. Of course every single cash out is weighted in the bookies favour, in terms of the original odds given but what price contingency?

 

We are up on our ten cashed out bets overall in this period of punting. Because if we hadn't cashed out when we did on the two that were the correct decision, we would have lost.

[minijc]

He picked up £5k for a £10 stake. It was not guaranteed that his £7,400 would come in. Of course every single cash out is weighted in the bookies favour, in terms of the original odds given but what price contingency?

 

We are up on our ten cashed out bets overall in this period of punting. Because if we hadn't cashed out when we did on the two that were the correct decision, we would have lost.

Cashing out is a short term gain but long term loser, as I said fair play to him but cashing out isn't for me, I've been it 4 or 5 times but wouldn't do it again as there are other ways around to secure profit.

[rocket_scientist]

Cashing out is a short term gain but long term loser, as I said fair play to him but cashing out isn't for me, I've been it 4 or 5 times but wouldn't do it again as there are other ways around to secure profit.

 

Fuck me. Am I missing something simple here?

 

What are you talking about? The only time a cash out is the right decision is if the bet doesn't come in. In 10 cash outs this year, 8 times was the wrong decision, including Chelsea when 1-0 up v. Southampton. But the twice we cashed out when the bet would've failed (when Bayern were 1-0 up away and got beat and another time when I was worried about Wolves but they held on and my pick drew after being 3-0 up), we saved more money in those two than we lost in the 8 cash outs.

[minijc]

What I'm saying is that over a long period of time cashing out you'll lose money, there's a reason the bookies offer it and they LOVE customers that use it all the time, that's a fact.

[rocket_scientist]

What I'm saying is that over a long period of time cashing out you'll lose money, there's a reason the bookies offer it and they LOVE customers that use it all the time, that's a fact.

 

Only a fucking retard would use it "all the time" and I've already said that the average punter is a fucking retard.

 

 

But your argument is retarded. A cash out option is a welcome addition to a non-retarded punter. It never loses money when it is engaged at the right times.

[minijc]

Only a fucking retard would use it "all the time" and I've already said that the average punter is a fucking retard.

 

 

But your argument is retarded. A cash out option is a welcome addition to a non-retarded punter. It never loses money when it is engaged at the right times.

Well that's not true, the bookies never give you what your bet is worth if you are cashing out hence why almost every bookie has created their own model for it and actively encourage customers to use it.

[rocket_scientist]

Well that's not true, the bookies never give you what your bet is worth if you are cashing out hence why almost every bookie has created their own model for it and actively encourage customers to use it.

 

Nobody can be this thick. Nice wind up. Good fishing.

[minijc]

Nobody can be this thick. Nice wind up. Good fishing.

So you genuinely think you get the full worth of your bet at the time of cash out?  Guys I speak to who know and understand betting a lot more than you and I ever will would never use cashout, bookies love a £5-£10 punter that uses cashout a lot and trust me 1000s use it every single day hence why it's available on almost every betting site.

[rocket_scientist]

So you genuinely think you get the full worth of your bet at the time of cash out?  Guys I speak to who know and understand betting a lot more than you and I ever will would never use cashout, bookies love a £5-£10 punter that uses cashout a lot and trust me 1000s use it every single day hence why it's available on almost every betting site.

 

I cashed out a £55 double for £97.50 instead of waiting for Chelsea to win on Sunday to return us £107.25 so it cost us £9.75 to do so, as Chelsea scored soon after I cashed out. But Soton had just had a goal disallowed, an offside against them in the two minutes before I cashed out and I knew that the £97.50 would have kept us in profit and kept on giving us more bookies money to play with.

 

IT DIDN'T PAY OFF. Chelsea won anyway.

 

But on the two occasions out of ten when IT DID PAY OFF, we MADE MORE than we lost on the other 8 bets.

 

As I said at the start, keeping a spreadsheet the only way to beat the bookies and the only way to understand betting and how best to manage stakes. Nobody can understand betting better than someone who already understands betting. It's really not difficult to anyone numerate and not lacking in intelligence.

[RicoS321]

So you genuinely think you get the full worth of your bet at the time of cash out?  Guys I speak to who know and understand betting a lot more than you and I ever will would never use cashout, bookies love a £5-£10 punter that uses cashout a lot and trust me 1000s use it every single day hence why it's available on almost every betting site.

 

Why would you never use cashout? Is there an alternative? I'm not fully up to speed with modrin betting, but unless there is an alternative - like selling a bet to a third party willing to take those odds for the difference - then cashout is the only option.

 

That bookies love it, or try to use it to their advantage in terms of sowing doubt in a punter's mind, is neither here nor there. If you have a specific objective from your betting, a knowledge/awareness of the game(s) that you're betting on then you simply choose when to use it. Knowing that the bookies are giving you crap odds is neither here nor there (no different to the original bet). If you believe that a game is going to change against your favour you wouldn't simply say "I da' cash oot min, fucking bookies" and then proceed to lose your money but not your betting-pride. That would be minorly retarded.

[rocket_scientist]

I severely doubt that bookies do like the cash out option. I also don't understand how they "encourage" us to use it.

 

This is a crowded market and when the first bookie offered it, everyone else had to.

[minijc]

Why would you never use cashout? Is there an alternative? I'm not fully up to speed with modrin betting, but unless there is an alternative - like selling a bet to a third party willing to take those odds for the difference - then cashout is the only option.

 

That bookies love it, or try to use it to their advantage in terms of sowing doubt in a punter's mind, is neither here nor there. If you have a specific objective from your betting, a knowledge/awareness of the game(s) that you're betting on then you simply choose when to use it. Knowing that the bookies are giving you crap odds is neither here nor there (no different to the original bet). If you believe that a game is going to change against your favour you wouldn't simply say "I da' cash oot min, fucking bookies" and then proceed to lose your money but not your betting-pride. That would be minorly retarded.

Nothing to do with pride and everything to do with value that's why I won't use it, maybe the only case to use it would be for a life changing sum of cash well over, another way to make the most from your bet would be to trade on betfair if prices and liquidity allows.

I severely doubt that bookies do like the cash out option. I also don't understand how they "encourage" us to use it.

 

This is a crowded market and when the first bookie offered it, everyone else had to.

I've heard enough bookie reps and managers talk about it to know that they love a customer cashing out that's also why some shops will let you do it in there too, an easy way out for the mugs where the bookie can save a further 10% or more on a lower amount they'd be losing if you kept the bet running.

[rocket_scientist]

Do you understand that cashing out a bet that then would have gone on to lose is a correct decision?

 

Facts: -

 

In 40 x doubles since late December, I've cashed out 10 times for £642.83.

 

Twice, the cash outs totalling £71.53 would've lost.

 

8 times, including Chelsea on Sunday, the cash outs were the wrong decisions, costing a total of £55.77.

 

So what the fuck are you talking about? What scenario are you painting?

 

You said "I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out". Prove it.

 

You appear to fail to grasp the simple concept of contingency.

 

 

 

 

[minijc]

Do you understand that cashing out a bet that then would have gone on to lose is a correct decision?

 

Facts: -

 

In 40 x doubles since late December, I've cashed out 10 times for £642.83.

 

Twice, the cash outs totalling £71.53 would've lost.

 

8 times, including Chelsea on Sunday, the cash outs were the wrong decisions, costing a total of £55.77.

 

So what the fuck are you talking about? What scenario are you painting?

 

You said "I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out". Prove it.

 

You appear to fail to grasp the simple concept of contingency.

The fact is you don't know it's the correct decision when you push the button.

 

Say full return of a bet is £220, you cash out for £190 with 10mins left, that £190 is less than what your bet is worth at the time of the cash out, it's not difficult and as usual you dish out the abuse knowing fuckall about what I do full time and the people I learn from.