Season 2019/2020 Rebuilding

[KennyFuckinPowers]

Can't quite believe we're almost at the end of the Season, have to say, It has flew in, I know there is still a good few weeks left, but the Manager will be thinking about next season for sure.

 

The likelihood is that GMS & Shinnie will be off, they'd surely have agreed an extension by now if they weren't? McKenna may have more interest and may leave, Stewart will go, Lowe will go, Gleeson ( Still not had a fair crack of the whip in my opinion ) will more than likely go also, Forrester already off the books, Hoban sadly injured, Reynolds off to Dundee United ( All the best ) James Wilson (  )  we will be rather light yet again.

 

We're a good amount of players down. What are the key positions that we need to address? Will we finally expand our scouting network?

 

This is arguably the most difficult task, in terms of recruitment, that McInnes will face.

 

 

 

 

[Ten Caat]

Definitely a huge rebuilding job to be done. McKenna likely to be gone but we will be furnished with  big fat cheque for £6 million.....maybe a bit more if we can get 2 or more clubs into a bidding war......although the vast majority of it will go on the new stadium. McInnes will get a million of it to spend on 2 or 3 players.

 

I don't think Gleeson will be offski as you predict. He's bound to be one of our top 5 paid players so on £4k plus/week. Don't see many EFL clubs wanting to take him on that kind of wage when he has featured so little for us and when his ability to play a full 90 minutes effective is seriously in question.

 

If Derby go up (doubtful but possible) they will access funds that will probably enable Lampard to sign a whole new first 11. On that basis Lowe might just become available for a permanent transfer, especially as they have 4 further left backs on their books who were all considered ahead of him ( 2 are out with long term injuries but should be back by the start of the new season). By all accounts he loves it up here and we should definitely at least ask the question.

 

We will need a first choice left sided CH. I'd go for Jason Kerr at ST J though he won't be cheap having just signed a new contract there. We know that we have certainly offered his team mate Shaughnessy a contract. You would have thought he would have snapped it up by now as it will be way higher than St J can offer....I wonder if he wants a guarantee of being first choice. Devlin would be his direct challenger for that spot. And his injury absence has been worrying to say the least....

 

Obviously we will need a replacement for Wilson. Stewart? No idea what McInnes is thinking regarding him. His performances don't warrant a contract offer but DM sees something in him that most everyone else doesn't. If the sevco rumour is true that is where he will be heading but I really don't think it is.

 

Ball I think will take up our offer. He will likely replace Shinnie on a 1 for 1 basis, but young Campbell will for sure get a lot more first team exposure next season and should relegate Ball to being a squad player by the start of season 20/21, perhaps even a wee bit sooner.

 

[RicoS321]

It's an unenviable task like. We reached a high point a couple of seasons back when we were banging in goals for fun and got ourselves a record points total. Each transfer window since we've regressed. It's making it harder and harder each summer to replace those who are leaving. Shinnie will be a massive loss. One of the best midfielders in the league and will be the equivalent of losing Hayes a couple of years back. GMS has, unfortunately, been unreliable (and brilliant, at times). Max Lowe is also huge. I'm not convinced we'll be able to keep him and I think that will destroy the balance in our team.

 

It's going to be a further summer of getting numbers in. It's a big turnover. Not only is it a big turnover, but there's a huge question mark over those who remain. May and Gleeson are three who I'd rather have an alternative in place but I think with their contracts as they are then we'll struggle to offload. Paying off Gleeson would be money well spent as he'll get a contract somewhere else and we can just pay the difference; he won't want to hang around here and he's behind Campbell at the moment (although I think he might play on Saturday as McInnes tries out options for the semi as Campbell clearly wasn't ready). I'd like to see May offloaded too, but I think we'll have to keep him just to avoid having to sign even more players.

 

We have to be pragmatic, so I'd definitely keep Stewart if available because he's a decent player who we can get more out of. Most importantly, he's a known quantity. I'd also keep Ball on the same basis. That leaves us still to sign a Left back, a centre half (or two if McKenna leaves), a central midfielder (I disagree with TC, Ball wouldn't even be a tenth of a replacement of Shinnie - although I suspect that wasn't you stating your preference just what you think might happen), at least one wide player and a striker as a minimum

 

That's a minimum of 5 first 11 players that we need, which is huge. At roughly 50% success rate (which would be an improvement) then we're looking at 10 players in during the summer. That's a real problem.

 

With Wright an unused sub for Dundee last night then it doesn't look like we're getting back a ready made first teamer either, but Anderson seems to be progressing nicely and will hopefully take the place of May as first sub up front (I think Cosgrove has his limitations too, but I think we have to go with him).

[KennyFuckinPowers]

Scary stuff, we will be as threadbare as fuck!

 

Left Back is massive, we can't go with Considine as our 1st choice LB next season, as good a servant as the guy has been, he should be kept as a squad player only who can cover CB, or even LB in an emergency. I'd like to see us ffer Killie a fee for their LB, Greg Taylor, pretty energetic and pacy, would fit in nicely. That is only if we have zero chance in getting Lowe back.

 

Centre Back, well IF McKenna does go, I'd have said the lad Halkett at Livingston would have been my choice to replace him, only 23, would have been free, a unit and knows the league, but he's Hearts bound. On the other hand, if Hoban was to be released by Watford, I'd love us to sign him permanently, albeit he's a risk, but he's a class act and we could also add Shaughnessy if he agrees the pre-contract, keeping the numbers up.

 

Rico, regarding Shinnie, you are correct, there was a stage this season where I was really frustrated with him, he was under-performing and he looked down and unhappy, but he's back to the tenacious, driving midfielder that will absolutely be missed & will definitely be hard to replace. Could we lure Mulumbu away from Celtic? He's clearly not in their plans and at his age, you'd think he'd want 1st team football over a bigger wage, he's already had that down south, so surely the attraction of 1st team football, and still a decent enough wage, could lure him?

 

 

[Slim]

Am I right in saying that Considine is out of contract this summer? If so, surprised he hasn’t been offered an extension, McInnes seems to love him.

 

The Sun is saying we’re trying to get Curtis Main from Motherwell and tried to sign him in January.

[BigAl]

Massive rebuilding job ahead of McInnes this summer.

 

Summary of today's rumblings from the tabloids

 

McInnes about ready to give up on the attempt to get Shug on a pre contract

As Slim says above we're after Main on freedom of contract (no thank you from me)

Apparently we have offered Stewart a FOUR YEAR contract but he will be announced as a HUN in the next twenty four hours on a three year deal.

 

Make of it all as you will

 

[ayrshire_don74]

curtis main another non scoring forward tremendous, my only concern is I would have thought we would have maybe a few on pre contract already , certainly wouldnt be offering stewart a 4 year contract

[A llad insane]

If there is any possible chance of us getting Lowe on a permanent , we have to pursue it, quality player . Same regards Hoban (although a risk) we should go for him.

  Strange how we havnt heard back from Joe S from St.J, probably wants to be guaranteed a place every week.  We need more striking options i feel & a playmaking midfielder.

Dont think we will see GMS in a dons shirt again & it looks like Shinnie (who looks back to his best) will be off. 

[Ten Caat]

Problem with Hoban is that it's unlikely he will be fit for the start of next season ( there is also a fair chance he might never be fit enough to play ever again). Whilst Watford certainly wont be offering him a new contract, I'm certain they will allow him to use their medical, physio and training facilities until such point as the loon will be able to say for certain that he will or won't be able to play again. With cruciate injuries it's considered 9 months plus out so the earliest he would be in a position to play would be November.

 

We really couldn't risk giving him a contract in summer in the hope that he will be fit at some point. Only once he is fit to do full training would it be worth the risk. But even then he would have to accept a very low basic wage but with appearance bonuses on a contract that (at least initially) would only run till the end of next season. On the money he is used to being on at Watford, he might not find that too attractive a proposition (of course he will probably find his options very limited anyway).

 

The boy is obviously a talent but has suffered horrendous luck with injuries. I'd like to think we could get him onboard once he's fit but as things stand I'd say it's very doubtful we will see him wearing the red shirt ever again.

 

[KennyFuckinPowers]

Alan Nixon on Twitter just said that Derby are leading the race to sign Shinnie on a pre-contract, with Wigan also interested. Alan is pretty much on the money the majority of the time.

 

I am absolutely certain that he won't be with us next season, you always have that cautious optimism when it's one of your best players, but if the likes of Derby are interested, then you'd have to concede defeat.

 

 

[Guest kiriakovisthenewstrachan]

Got to be a no to Hoban, we've got to stop signing crocks. May, Wilson, Devlin, Hoban......not doing the team any good.

[Ramperbamper]

Alan Nixon on Twitter just said that Derby are leading the race to sign Shinnie on a pre-contract, with Wigan also interested. Alan is pretty much on the money the majority of the time.

 

I am absolutely certain that he won't be with us next season, you always have that cautious optimism when it's one of your best players, but if the likes of Derby are interested, then you'd have to concede defeat.

 

Resigned to losing Shinnie. Good luck to him if he moves down there, I was never one for presuming he was going to the Huns.

 

All gone quiet on the GMS front, perhaps a chance that given his injury situation that teams might back off and he'll sign up again? Wouldn't be averse to it but, as with all our wingers, we need better consistency from him.

 

Hoping we have more signings like Lowe, Ferguson, Devlin, Cosgrove this summer rather than Gleeson and Wilson types.

[manc_don]

Held off from commenting on this thread for a while. Wanted to have a proper think of what has annoyed me this season.  If we thought last summer was a big one, this one is huge. DM hasn't shown he's got the knowledge or creativity to do what is needed.  There are so many holes across the board that now need to be filled that it almost makes it impossible to maintain the level we've been used to. Of course it remains to be seen if he'll be here next season too.

 

We need another forward, that most certainly is not Wilson.  We need two central midfielders (creative and enforcer that shinnie has been doing) and at least one winger. I'd like to see Lowe re-sign (obviously, on loan or permanently) and get another RB.  Logan has been unreliable at best over the past couple of seasons.  Love him as a player and a character, but really don't know if his hearts in it anymore.  Not sure if we'll see McKenna go this summer, he's hardly set the heather alight since Jan. A lot of basic errors, which are probably down to inexperience.  There's talent there, but I think we'd be extremely lucky to see £5m for him.

 

I agree with KNS, got to be a no to Hoban.  No doubting his ability but we really can't afford to have someone who is made of glass. Costs us a fortune.

 

If Shinnie does go to Derby, I wish him well. We'll miss his drive and passion massively next season. I'd much rather he go there than anywhere else in Scotland.  He's better than Wigan.

 

Still not sure if I have confidence in DM to do what's necessary. Time will tell I guess.

[Ramperbamper]

If we thought last summer was a big one, this one is huge. DM hasn't shown he's got the knowledge or creativity to do what is needed. 

 

Don't know if I agree with that - Ferguson, Devlin, Lowe and Cosgrove have all joined in the last year or so and are exactly what have been required - a few of them have been plucked from nowhere. You'll always get Gleeson, Forrester and Wilson type signings, but the bigger crime would be to persisting with them out of bloody mindedness and not giving the likes of Ferguson and Campbell the game time they've seen. The shite will be moved on as soon as possible, as has always been the case under DM.

 

DM has also been fairly clear that an improved scouting network is what he'd like to see prioritised once the funding for the training ground/stadium is in place.

[Ten Caat]

Don't know if I agree with that - Ferguson, Devlin, Lowe and Cosgrove have all joined in the last year or so and are exactly what have been required - a few of them have been plucked from nowhere.

 

Agree about Ferguson and Cosgrove. Lowe to an extent ( been excellent but at the end of the day he's a loan and as things stand will be returning to his parent club next month).

 

Devlin looked the pick of the bunch when the season started. However it has to be remembered he was injured long term when he joined us and spent 6 months getting himself fit. We got 3 very good months out of him, deservedly getting a Scotland call up only to return from it injured (not even in a match). Followed by another near 3 months out and since considered "fit" to return has mainly been a substitute and when called on to play has been nowhere near the standards set at the start of the season. I think in view of this, plus his previous injury history, the jury must remain firmly out. ( As I've said before, our ultimately unsuccessful pursuit of Shaughnessy seems very suspicious)

[RicoS321]

Don't know if I agree with that - Ferguson, Devlin, Lowe and Cosgrove have all joined in the last year or so and are exactly what have been required - a few of them have been plucked from nowhere. You'll always get Gleeson, Forrester and Wilson type signings, but the bigger crime would be to persisting with them out of bloody mindedness and not giving the likes of Ferguson and Campbell the game time they've seen. The shite will be moved on as soon as possible, as has always been the case under DM.

 

DM has also been fairly clear that an improved scouting network is what he'd like to see prioritised once the funding for the training ground/stadium is in place.

 

I hadn't heard Deek mentioning that before, that's interesting. It is the one area he appears to have done zero work on since arriving at the club. Every other department seems to have at least one DM appointment in it. It's pretty fundamental though.

 

You're right that you always get Gleeson-type signings, however it is the volume of them and the glaringly obvious nature that strikes me as bordering on incompetent. Different players respond differently to the environment of course, but guys like Forrester, Maynard, Tansey etc were clearly never going to be of the standard. Yer Wilson and Gleeson are easier mistakes to make as they've got something about them and have attributes that would suit them to our game, and I accept that 2 or 3 mistakes will be made in each summer window. Really, a 50-60% return should be viable and I don't think that we've been close to that in the last 2-3 seasons (about 5 windows, which shows a repeated failure). With each passing window we've got weaker and weaker. With such a huge turnover due in the summer then that will inevitably be the case again.

 

However, I do believe it is systemic within AFC so I'm not convinced a new manager would suddenly start picking up gems once their initial stock (from previous employment) wears thin. We can't expect everything from our manager, the club needs the set up to back him and I think we're way short.

 

[SeeBass]

I see Tony Watt is leaving St.Johnstone soon??

[manc_don]

I hadn't heard Deek mentioning that before, that's interesting. It is the one area he appears to have done zero work on since arriving at the club. Every other department seems to have at least one DM appointment in it. It's pretty fundamental though.

 

You're right that you always get Gleeson-type signings, however it is the volume of them and the glaringly obvious nature that strikes me as bordering on incompetent. Different players respond differently to the environment of course, but guys like Forrester, Maynard, Tansey etc were clearly never going to be of the standard. Yer Wilson and Gleeson are easier mistakes to make as they've got something about them and have attributes that would suit them to our game, and I accept that 2 or 3 mistakes will be made in each summer window. Really, a 50-60% return should be viable and I don't think that we've been close to that in the last 2-3 seasons (about 5 windows, which shows a repeated failure). With each passing window we've got weaker and weaker. With such a huge turnover due in the summer then that will inevitably be the case again.

 

However, I do believe it is systemic within AFC so I'm not convinced a new manager would suddenly start picking up gems once their initial stock (from previous employment) wears thin. We can't expect everything from our manager, the club needs the set up to back him and I think we're way short.

 

Agree with most of what you've written, pretty much how I was viewing things before I'd commented.  But the bit in bold, certainly felt like that with the striker situation and why we ended up with May instead of moult. But i'd question the spending of 400k on May in the first place. Think he (DM) probably deserves a window with a proper budget to see what he can do, but again, we'll probably fall short, and so will DM.

[TheDeeDon]

I don't think I trust McInnes with a bigger tranfer budget. I think his past couple of windows have been pretty poor and hasn't really improved the squad. I know it is not an easy job trying to pick up the next big thing on our tight budget with every other club doing the same thing, but it shouldn't stop us trying, but you need good guys on the ground ensuring the players they highlight fit into our system and will add value to the first team/squad, due consideration should be paid to the youth team to see who realistically can push for first team and also who would benefit from a year playing out on loan, the one plus point this season is seeing our own players get chances, whether that is down to our main signings being poor and not fitting in to our style we can leave for another thread.

 

Personally I think it is time for a change of manager I think we have come as far as we can with him and he would probably benefit from the change also.

[ayrshire_don74]

steve clarke doesnt need a proper budget but gets more out of his players ...

[RicoS321]

steve clarke doesnt need a proper budget but gets more out of his players ...

 

I don't think that there is any question that Clarke is the best manager in the league. He's also out of our budget now. Killie pay half as much as us with a similar squad size. Not sure how that is made up in terms of earners, but given that they were matching us in the offer to Stewart it wouldn't be inconceivable to think that they had 4-5 players on similar contracts to some of our first teamers. I would think that Clarke has a far greater success rate with his signings, which makes a huge difference in cutting the gap between the budgets. I imagine that our average wage without Wilson, Hoban, Gleeson and Forrester (vs any crap signings they've made) would be massively reduced. Adding in GMS - missing for half a season - and our expensively assembled first team actually looks quite cheap. It'd be really interesting to get an idea of individual's wages (even just in wage-brackets) so we could actually work out a weighted team cost based on minutes on the pitch. I think our failings in the transfer market would leave us without a huge advantage over Killie. Not only does Clarke get more out of his players, but he gets better value for money on signings than any other team in the league. It's impressive like.

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

but you need good guys on the ground ensuring the players they highlight fit into our system and will add value to the first team/squad

 

Agree we need good scouts but what is "our system"? I've never seen one.

[Guest kiriakovisthenewstrachan]

Clarke has done well, no doubt about it but let's not get carried away. He has had one exceptional season by Killie standards but he has not won anything and not qualified for Europe yet either. Pre-Kilmarnock his record as a manager was very mixed, he had not pulled up many trees which is the reason he is at Rugby Park and not somewhere else. Let's see what happens next season when he is forced to rebuild and judge him properly then.

 

There has been a lot of hype about Clarke but we have had managers up here winning things with the likes of Caley, Ross County and St Johnstone so let's not get too excited by one really good season.

 

 

[Ten Caat]

I don't think that there is any question that Clarke is the best manager in the league. He's also out of our budget now. Killie pay half as much as us with a similar squad size. Not sure how that is made up in terms of earners, but given that they were matching us in the offer to Stewart it wouldn't be inconceivable to think that they had 4-5 players on similar contracts to some of our first teamers. I would think that Clarke has a far greater success rate with his signings, which makes a huge difference in cutting the gap between the budgets. I imagine that our average wage without Wilson, Hoban, Gleeson and Forrester (vs any crap signings they've made) would be massively reduced. Adding in GMS - missing for half a season - and our expensively assembled first team actually looks quite cheap. It'd be really interesting to get an idea of individual's wages (even just in wage-brackets) so we could actually work out a weighted team cost based on minutes on the pitch. I think our failings in the transfer market would leave us without a huge advantage over Killie. Not only does Clarke get more out of his players, but he gets better value for money on signings than any other team in the league. It's impressive like.

 

Don't agree about the wages. In the average wages of 2017, we were 3rd highest in SPFL at £2630/week. Killie were down in 8th at £1060/week. They got Stewart on loan on a very cheap contribution to his Birmingham weekly wage of £6k/week. (£1500/week). We were paying £2500/week in his first spell with us. They got him so cheaply as there was nobody else that wanted him!

 

Admittedly, Clarke got him playing well for him in a system where he was not expected to do any defensive donkey work. That got us interested again and Birmingham (whose financial problems are well publicised) saw an opportunity to get a higher portion of his wages covered again ( rumoured again to be £2.5k/week). Killie obviously saw the value he brought to them and agreed to match our offer but by then the deal was done with us....unsurprisingly with his Birmingham contract coming to an end (and possibly already with the promise of a contract from us in the summer) he chose to rejoin us with the chance to put himself in the shop window at a club with a far higher level of media exposure.

 

What is undeniable is that Clarke for sure is getting far better value out of his squad and his recruitment "hit or miss" level is far more impressive than Mcinnes'. As you say, he is out of our league now as his next move when he inevitably leaves Killie will be either  to the English Championship as a manager outright or the English Premiership as an assistant......either option on wages far higher than we could get close to ( there is maybe a small chance that Celtic would consider him for their hotseat, especially if Lennon doesn't win them the Scottish Cup).

[RicoS321]

Don't agree about the wages. In the average wages of 2017, we were 3rd highest in SPFL at £2630/week. Killie were down in 8th at £1060/week. They got Stewart on loan on a very cheap contribution to his Birmingham weekly wage of £6k/week. (£1500/week). We were paying £2500/week in his first spell with us. They got him so cheaply as there was nobody else that wanted him!

 

According to Statista, as at Nov18 we were averaging £138.67pa (3rd), with them on £62.82 (7th). I said double as opposed to 45/100. We're in agreement on Stewart, regardless of the circumstances.

 

What I meant about them matching wages is that because of our shite signings, several of our first 11 will be on similar wages. Our higher earners like Wilson and Gleeson (presumably, given he was signed as a first 11 players) take the average up whilst sitting on the bench, whereas their higher earners will be on the pitch. Thus their higher earners vs our below average earners will greatly reduce the perceived budget gap. Guys like Jones, Power, Dicker, Broadfoot, Bachmann, O-Donnell will be on similar wages to the likes of Ball, Considine, Ferguson and Cosgrove.