Coronavirus

[rocket_scientist]

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/03/theres-powerful-evidence-this-great-panic-is-foolish-yet-our-freedom-is-still-broken-and-our-economy.html

[LA-Don]

I’m fascinated by this whole situation. Endless conspiracy theories too.

 

Pretty sure I had corona in January, as did my son and a number of friends. My school had a 30% absence rate in January due to a very strong ‘flu.’ I had it for 3 weeks, fever, heavy chesty cough, blood shot eyes etc. Took my 3 year old to the doctor 3 times before they told him it was pneumonia. I went shortly after saying I had exactly what my son had, the hospital was too busy to send me for a chest X-ray, but she listened to my lungs, said I was fine, and it was a bad flu. Gave me 3 different prescriptions and it went away in around a week.

 

Anyway, if it came from China in November/December, makes sense that it arrives in Los Angeles shortly after that. Only now, or recently, are they calling it covid19.

 

What gets me is that what are the numbers of those with flu and dying of flu. Regardless of them having treatment and vaccines for flu, what are those numbers?

 

This whole situation doesn’t sit right with me. Not sure what to think or believe.

[rocket_scientist]

Osterholm was on CNN an hour ago. He again re-emphasised that we (the US) need a national plan and said that the lockdown is going to last months not weeks. He also pointed out that new infections in China and South Korea are now spiking since they relaxed their social measures. Unlike these fucking cretins doing the UK and US daily briefings, Michael Osterholm speaks with great intelligence and a deep authority based on decades of experience. Hancock just spins shit and knows less about medicine and healthcare than most.

[rocket_scientist]

Spain joins Italy in the 10,000+ deaths count. USA will catch them next.

 

France will be 4th and by the time Boris's Buggered (us) become the 5th nation to lose 10,000, the USA may well be leading the death race.

 

But nobody's counting the deaths properly. Included in the figures, including in NHS Grampian are elderly patients who died of cardiac arrest or kidney failure but because they had tested Covid-positive, didn't get the usual treatment they would normally have got but for a decision to let them die.

 

[tom_widdows]

Rough current death rates for each part of the UK(based on population not number of infections - whether or not these countries are definetely recording all coronovirus deaths is up for debate)

 

Northern Ireland - 1 per 39,208 people

Scotland - 1 per 31,616 people

Wales - 1 per 22,262 people

England - 1 per 17,224 people

 

Compared to:

 

Italy - 1 per 4,120 people

Spain - 1 per 4,166 people

Belgium - 1 per 9,973 people

France - 1 per 10,312 people

Netherlands - 1 per 11,553 people

Luxembourg - 1 per 19,419 people

Ireland - 1 per 40,250 people

Portugal - 1 per 41,829 people

USA - 1 per 46,319 people

Germany - 1 per 64,933 people

China - 1 per 417,218 people

 

 

[TheDeeDon]

Rough current death rates for each part of the UK(based on population not number of infections - whether or not these countries are definetely recording all coronovirus deaths is up for debate)

 

Northern Ireland - 1 per 39,208 people

Scotland - 1 per 31,616 people

Wales - 1 per 22,262 people

England - 1 per 17,224 people

 

Compared to:

 

Italy - 1 per 4,120 people

Spain - 1 per 4,166 people

Belgium - 1 per 9,973 people

France - 1 per 10,312 people

Netherlands - 1 per 11,553 people

Luxembourg - 1 per 19,419 people

Ireland - 1 per 40,250 people

Portugal - 1 per 41,829 people

USA - 1 per 46,319 people

Germany - 1 per 64,933 people

China - 1 per 417,218 people

 

The China figure sticks out like a sore thumb, which makes you think they are not telling us the truth, but on the other hand they did lockdown very quickly and it would have been strictly upheld, but the number just doesn't look right in that context.

[tom_widdows]

The China figure sticks out like a sore thumb, which makes you think they are not telling us the truth, but on the other hand they did lockdown very quickly and it would have been strictly upheld, but the number just doesn't look right in that context.

 

It all depends if they have given the actual number.

China's population is more than 4 times as much as the USA.

India is the one to look at given they have a population similar to China's with a higher population density however they have only reported 68 deaths

 

Those figures will need adjusting as they are based on 2018 populations

 

[TheDeeDon]

It all depends if they have given the actual number.

China's population is more than 4 times as much as the USA.

India is the one to look at given they have a population similar to China's with a higher population density however they have only reported 68 deaths

 

Those figures will need adjusting as they are based on 2018 populations

 

Got to be a big worry if it really takes hold amongst the poor of India and Pakistan and other poorer nations. Look how much problems it has caused in the so called developed world.

 

It is just one big mess this whole thing and going to get a lot worse yet.

[tom_widdows]

Rough current death rates for each part of the UK(based on population not number of infections - whether or not these countries are definetely recording all coronovirus deaths is up for debate)

 

Northern Ireland - 1 per 39,208 people

Scotland - 1 per 31,616 people

Wales - 1 per 22,262 people

England - 1 per 17,224 people

 

Update today

 

Northern Ireland - 1 per 33,607 people

Scotland - 1 per 24,955 people

Wales - 1 per 20,383 people

England - 1 per 14,212 people

 

[TheDeeDon]

Update today

 

Northern Ireland - 1 per 33,607 people

Scotland - 1 per 24,955 people

Wales - 1 per 20,383 people

England - 1 per 14,212 people

 

708 deaths today being reported in the daily update, including a 5 year old with underlying health issues.

 

Never good hearing about the deaths of bairns.

[rocket_scientist]

Aye, tragic numbers and at the time of posting, 64,957 have been reported as dying with the virus.

 

The data trends show that the US and the UK are losing the highest percentages in the last week. By this I mean that their and our total deaths are rising at a bigger proportion than every other country in the world. The US death figure reported today was the worst national daily loss of any country thus far and I expect they will have the highest number of fatalities globally at some point well before the end of this month.

 

I guess a good question would be why? It's the same virus hitting the same human bodies. The virus doesn't recognise nationalities or ethnicity. Of course there will be reasonable contributory factors such as air quality, age demographics and smoker rates in Northern Italy but in the case of the two worst accelerating countries it may well be directly correlated to the "strategies", or rather the lack of them in both our countries.

 

Boris was going for zero lockdown, "take it on the chin" and herd immunity before a total U-turn almost two weeks ago and Trump similarly wasn't in favour of lockdown before being advised to finally take it seriously. Even then, there's still 7 or 8 states not in lockdown and as we've seen again today in England, the Westminster government's advice or recommendations or instructions (or whatever the fuck they're doing) isn't being adhered to on a total level.

 

Once again tonight, Trump showed his impatience and repeated his "the cure can't be worse than the problem itself" and I'm following the fascinating debate in the UK on whether or not the cost of lockdown is ultimately going to be "worth it". It's a pity that Piers Morgan and Peter Hitchens happen to be the beacons for these two opposing views as both are rather unfortunate personalities that I find distaste coming very naturally for but the truth may well come somewhere between them or indeed may attach to one of them when all's said and done, even though they couldn't be any further apart and are at completely extreme ends of the spectrum.

 

In due course we will learn whether total lockdown or zero lockdown was the best strategy. There actually may not even be an in-between on this one. I am inclined to go with total lockdown as early as possible - which was at least 2 /3 weeks earlier than Boris went for - and then releasing after 3 weeks. I'm not infected (I'm sure) and have had very little opportunity to be infected since the pubs shut so after 3 weeks of social isolation, I can't even see how new cases can occur (if we aren't mixing with anyone). That assumes the "science" that the virus either makes us real sick or goes away within 3 weeks and also assumes that a well-organised country can test quickly and efficiently. In fact the testing on a wide enough scale is the key to it all, the data determining the whole  economy. It's all a massive fuck up and I reckon God's karma is punishing us for electing such bad, unintelligent administrations. The data trends do show that we in the UK should hit a plateau in the middle of April but that assumes that we are all capable of staying at home. The US may well be the last country on earth to start to see the end of exponential "death growth" although I'm watching Sweden with interest too. If they start to explode in the next week or two, their "top of the mountain" may be last. Or then again the poorer countries will start to get a big volume of pain in May. Fuck knows. The only certainty to me is that the US and the UK will be the first five members of the 10,000 club whereas the data says that both Italy and Spain will be over the worst imminently, if they're not already.

 

Remarkable virus. Respect. It moves with maths. I wish it never came of course as there's the relatives and friends of 65,000 grieving just now and it will be in the millions before it's finished. I'm just praying that my family's two front line workers don't get infected. That's a lie. I don't pray, being agnostic. Love and peace and good luck to you and yours.

[TheDeeDon]

You know the shit is getting serious when they have to wheel the Queen out to address the nation and keep the south of England happy.

 

Usually hauled out when it becomes apparent the Government have fucked up and it is a royal fuck up.

 

Some good stuff in the latest Private Eye about Covid and the Governments failings which really need hammered home to everyone.

[RicoS321]

In due course we will learn whether total lockdown or zero lockdown was the best strategy. There actually may not even be an in-between on this one.

 

Agree with what you're saying, but not sure enty about this bit. The alternative was test test test. South Korea and China, Taiwan, Mongolia, Ireland etc all took this approach which means that they're total lockdown was/is only temporary, with a clear exit strategy i.e. managed lockdown. The fact is that there is no way round the virus. We're all practicing herd immunity, the key is simply how that's done. That's why I don't understand hitchen's point. He seems completely oblivious to the fact that the lockdown is only there to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed and he provides no solution to this. He does briefly mention that they would have coped, but with zero investigation and against current visible evidence.

 

A managed lockdown gives us a clear way out and a coherent plan that informs the public. Lockdown until you and a large enough portion in your area tests as immune, national database that you're removed from when clear. Restricted travel throughout. International visitors quarantine. Show the public that you have a start, a temporary middle and a clear end. Give the NHS the information that they need and allow the population to very slowly gain immunity over time. There'll still be deaths of course, just not as many as there would have been by letting the health service become inundated.

[donsdaft]

The queen can shut her f’uckin mouth.

 

F’uckin bitch.

[rocket_scientist]

That's why I don't understand hitchen's point.

 

His "point" is that Lord Sumption and the professors from Stanford and Mainz universities (I linked them above) are questioning the sanity of total lockdown. They're not the only ones. Frederick Forsyth also asked the same question (which I'm sure I also linked above) and many others, including the president of the US, know that economic lockdown can't last for months on end.

 

The debate is how many will have died anyway/would be saved by lockdown v. the trillions it costs to lockdown. As Hitchens correctly points out, dissent and opposition is essential for proper debate, a fundamental tenet of a functioning democracy.

 

It's a debate worth following. If you have some spare time on your hands, I recommend that you follow it.

[RicoS321]

His "point" is that Lord Sumption and the professors from Stanford and Mainz universities (I linked them above) are questioning the sanity of total lockdown. They're not the only ones. Frederick Forsyth also asked the same question (which I'm sure I also linked above) and many others, including the president of the US, know that economic lockdown can't last for months on end.

 

The debate is how many will have died anyway/would be saved by lockdown v. the trillions it costs to lockdown. As Hitchens correctly points out, dissent and opposition is essential for proper debate, a fundamental tenet of a functioning democracy.

 

It's a debate worth following. If you have some spare time on your hands, I recommend that you follow it.

 

But one side of that argument is a monetary value, and the other side is death. What happens after lockdown is another decision, just like austerity was. It's economic illiteracy to suggest that the economy can only behave in one specific way, and if hitchens or Frederick Forsyth believe that then they're no less deluded than the followers of David karesh or any other cultists. It's not like being trapped between a tsunami and a forest fire, two natural phenomena. The economy is man-made. We've designed it, and if we've designed it so that it lacks any resilience whatsoever, then we change it. More importantly, why are guys as intelligent as hitchens not asking that glaringly obvious question? Why aren't they questioning why it's possible for banks and governments just to suddenly say that mortgages don't have to be paid, and loans can be ignored, but yet these artificial balances require payment in normal times, for example? Why would anyone's thinking default to siding with the fictional economy over human lives without the real challenge being posed?

 

But all that aside, the NHS is currently struggling to cope and the number of people who will die because of this struggling, rather than the virus, is significant. That's the issue he skirts.

[rocket_scientist]

But one side of that argument is a monetary value, and the other side is death.

 

Not as simple as that. Lockdown isn't just an economic consequence. Many will have run out of money already and millions of others will do so in the next month or so. The results of lockdown will kill a bigger number when we take into account the stress and the depression and the mass unemployment etc. How can minimum wage people and gig economy and other low paid workers pay for food now that they have no income and trust me, the government won't be capable/may not even want to get their welfare state functioning properly.

 

I'm already preparing for massive civil unrest when the desperate have no option but to be desperate. Fortunately we don't have guns in the UK (and I predict a bloodbath in the US) so I've only got a super-sharp flick knife and a hammer to protect me and my family and whilst these effects of lockdown aren't being discussed yet in the debate, it's a personal view that I see coming.

 

Your points about the "fictional economy" are good ones. I wish I could have similar faith that this fundamental basis could be challenged but for the fact that the capitalist globalist agenda - which I misspelled globalust just now, poetically or ironically - uses finance as a crucially important tool for mass control.

 

 

But all that aside, the NHS is currently struggling to cope and the number of people who will die because of this struggling, rather than the virus, is significant. That's the issue he skirts.

 

I agree with the principle that we could save the economy but we can't save lives and I struggle to fully comprehend where the Hitchens end of the spectrum sits with regard to basic humanity. I think they are right in pointing out that the global Covid death figures have been inflated by people dying with the virus rather than from it - I gave two specific examples last week on our own doorstep, in Aberdeen Royal Infirmary - but the lack of proper care to existing non-infected patients is killing many more, wholly down to the panic measures that Hancock's NHS are working under right now. TV is not data. Their argument has been supported by insiders saying that London hospitals ARE coping (and that Excel won't be required) but of course it's essential to prepare for worst case contingencies. As I say, there's a massive whole debate going on which includes experts in law, in medicine, in economics etc. and whilst Piers champions the total restriction of all liberties for all people, I would be alarmed at how certain he is on everything but for the fact we know he's a total penis, without a big intellect and is desperate to present himself as uber-humanitarian and a man of the people whereas the truth is that he's just a slut for self importance.

 

Fuck knows where the truth lies but it can be found with intelligent critical thinking. Some countries are getting it right. We, and the US, are getting everything so wrong.

[rocket_scientist]

 

This is what an exponential growth curve looks like.

 

Hoping for a plateau at some point in the next week or so.

 

Edit: correction, this graph will only "plateau" when people stop dying. I meant that the infections number should plateau and then come down as the total number of infected reduces. But I don't trust the infected numbers as there has been a minute fraction of the population tested (due to government incompetence) so we are flying blind, without a fucking clue how fast and widespread this disease spreads.

[rocket_scientist]

Fuck knows where the truth lies but it can be found with intelligent critical thinking. Some countries are getting it right. We, and the US, are getting everything so wrong.

 

Ok let's have a go...

 

The key is testing. The "immunity passport" idea has merit. When the antibody tests and whether currently infected tests become widely available, the immune and the non-infected have no need to be isolated. The requirement to ensure that the virus doesn't recur is ongoing (until the science understands the nature of Covid-19) of course so regular individual testing is the key to unlock.

 

A piece of paper isn't going to cut it, as that spastic Hancock mooted and they have to embrace technology and App-base it, mandatorily although recognising that some don't have smartphones. Once the App is functioning, there's your data tracking and contact tracing doing all the work for you.

 

Infected people are immediately quarantined and everyone within their range since the date of their last test is urged to immediately retest. This all assumes that tests can be made available and are easy enough to self-diagnose, which currently isn't the case of course, particularly in the presently infected category. But that's the critical blueprint. Identify who's positive, who's negative and who's "passive" i.e. currently negative and possibly immune.

[Kowalski]

Aye aye. BoJo admitted to hospital.

[rocket_scientist]

This whole Coronavirus issue stinks. Ok, it's been hard to believe anything the government and the globalist agenda tells us and there is always the crying wolf thing to be aware of but what's really happening here? I don't trust the media either but the same pattern of spreading fear is again in operation...

 

I'm getting scared now. Is this virus planned? What will be in the vaccine that they will force on us? Will martial law be fully implemented this month? I don't think everything is what it seems.

[scotfree]

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

With less than 50,000 cases in the UK, that's less than 0.1% of the population who have tested positive. With more than 99.9% of us not having the virus, is it proportionate to ask 50,000,000+ of us to be in lockdown? That's billions of pounds per day being lost with devastating effects being created.

 

Of course the woeful testing levels mean that some of the 99.9% can be currently infected or have recovered from having it but is the cure becoming worse than the problem? Is the problem big enough to merit such an extreme response? 17,000 on average die of the flu each year in the UK and one year recently had 27,000 deaths. Will that many die of this virus? Highly unlikely given the data and trends in other countries, even including the fact that the Covid deaths are being inflated by those dying with the virus rather than from the virus. I can't remember a lockdown when the flu was wiping out people in previous years.

 

The biggest question is WHY? What is the underlying agenda of the government? To save lives? Do we believe that? Are they even in charge? Why are they introducing us to draconian house-arrest measures, dramatically taking away many of our liberties and throwing billions of our wealth down the drain? Does our personal "wealth" even matter in where we are going?

 

Lots of questions. Very thin on answers.

[Kowalski]

Suspect we’re not getting the full story about BoJo. He’s running the country but Raab hasn’t spoken to him since Saturday! 

[RicoS321]

With less than 50,000 cases in the UK, that's less than 0.1% of the population who have tested positive. With more than 99.9% of us not having the virus, is it proportionate to ask 50,000,000+ of us to be in lockdown? That's billions of pounds per day being lost with devastating effects being created.

 

Of course the woeful testing levels mean that some of the 99.9% can be currently infected or have recovered from having it but is the cure becoming worse than the problem? Is the problem big enough to merit such an extreme response? 17,000 on average die of the flu each year in the UK and one year recently had 27,000 deaths. Will that many die of this virus? Highly unlikely given the data and trends in other countries, even including the fact that the Covid deaths are being inflated by those dying with the virus rather than from the virus. I can't remember a lockdown when the flu was wiping out people in previous years.

 

The biggest question is WHY? What is the underlying agenda of the government? To save lives? Do we believe that? Are they even in charge? Why are they introducing us to draconian house-arrest measures, dramatically taking away many of our liberties and throwing billions of our wealth down the drain? Does our personal "wealth" even matter in where we are going?

 

Lots of questions. Very thin on answers.

 

It's the same answer as it has always been. It's to prevent the overwhelming of the NHS. You don't have to believe that, but that it is the reason that has been given. The flu is not comparable, nor is the eventual total relevant. The only thing that is relevant was the expected deaths if nothing happened. That was the data that put the fear of death into the government (literally in Boris' case it seems). The fact that they couldn't cope with a large number of people being infected at once and thus would result in otherwise healthy people being infected and dying or dying as a result of some other illness or injury because of an overwhelmed service.

 

Furthermore, there aren't billions of pounds being lost and wealth is not being thrown down the drain, it's simply being re-distributed. If the government wants to affect that re-distribution then it already has the power to do so. If you're losing GBP then somebody else is gaining it. If you're savings are in a foreign currency then you will be in a different boat, but that's not yer average UK punter. There is nothing in this situation that has to cause hardship, it's an economic choice to affect people with that hardship. What the government does next is up to them, or at least up to their ideology.

 

The UK government's agenda is what their lobbyist mates tell them it is. But they're clearing taking their lead from other countries on this one. They're locking down because that's what everyone else was/is doing. Events have overtaken them. They shat it big style and ended up in a halfway house that doesn't suit anybody. These fuckwits don't have the capacity to have an agenda on this one.