Coronavirus

[rocket_scientist]

Wow! Tomas Pueyo, the author of that article on air from the US arguing strongly with the studio scientist!

[RicoS321]

I didn't understand this post when she said it;

 

Boris is wrong about his herd immunity take, it will put more people at risk and we have no evidence to suggest that people have lasting immunity to it so unlikely to be effective

 

Now that they're talking about this exact subject on Channel 4, I'm inclined not to believe the balloon on TV just now who's job it is to know about this shit.

 

How could it work? Surely herd immunity requires global herd immunity? I don't get it. Unless we're closing all borders until there's a vaccine? Is this nae yer basic smallpox training? I'm probably missing something.

[Ten Caat]

Tbf no one knows how this is going to pan out. The herd immunity theory is reasonable and yes there have been reports of sufferers becoming re-infected. However I suspect the actual truth might be that they hadn't really been recovered at all, just that their condition had improved somewhat and felt ok but the virus hadn't fully been eliminated from their body and as a result suffered a relapse.

 

It's way too late to stop this now anyway. By the time a sufferer starts to feel unwell, they've already been infectious for between 24-72 hours already and have probably infected 5 others minimum. A vaccine is being rushed through...several labs have one and it's in the animal testing stage but don't expect it to be available for at least 6 months, more likely nearer 12. Still a remarkably fast time to get a new product out on the market.

 

Deaths are inevitable in fairly large numbers but will mainly be in the elderly/physically infirm demographic. A few younger, utterly unexpected deaths will also occur but not in any significant numbers. Influenza claims a few "healthy" people every year. For most of us it will just be like a bad cold but there will be significant numbers of folk with pre-existing conditions that will require hospitalisation....respiratory tract diseases mainly but also diabetics, heart disease sufferers etc. What the NHS should be doing now is cancelling all elective surgery, except for those that are for life threatening conditions (cancer and certain heart ops mainly)....your hip replacements, varicose veins etc can all wait 6 months. Get the patients that are in hospital discharged the instant they are fit. Bed blockers should be discharged to the first available nursing home bed.....tough luck if it isn't close at hand to relatives. They can be moved into a closer home at a later date.

 

Stock up on cheap paracetamol and cough linctus. Don't waste your cash on expensive branded shit like lemsip. The biggest effects this pandemic will cause are economic. This is what governments are truly concerned about. The longer it lasts, more and more businesses will go bust. It will actually be quite "entertaining" watching holiday companies and airline go tits up fairly rapidly because of this.

 

Strap yourselves in. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

 

 

 

[Ten Caat]

How could it work? Surely herd immunity requires global herd immunity? I don't get it. Unless we're closing all borders until there's a vaccine? Is this nae yer basic smallpox training? I'm probably missing something.

 

True herd immunity needs about 90-95% of the population inoculated (or naturally immune) to guarantee a communicable disease threat is contained. The numbers being bandied about are suggesting that if 60% of catch covid-19 and recover then we should have some sort of herd immunity. At those levels, the disease will still spread but should be manageable for some semblance of normality to return until the vaccine becomes generally available....as ive said before...its at least 6 months down the line, more likely nearer 12.

[RicoS321]

True herd immunity needs about 90-95% of the population inoculated (or naturally immune) to guarantee a communicable disease threat is contained. The numbers being bandied about are suggesting that if 60% of catch covid-19 and recover then we should have some sort of herd immunity. At those levels, the disease will still spread but should be manageable for some semblance of normality to return until the vaccine becomes generally available....as ive said before...its at least 6 months down the line, more likely nearer 12.

 

"Some sort" of herd immunity? Surely there's either immunity or not? It suggests that whilst those 60% are gaining their immunity, those not immune could, at worst, die. It's not like you know who's going to be immune in advance. You also don't know how the remaining 40% will act or who they will interact with. You also have foreign people, who aren't part of this ridiculous experiment, still coming in and out of the country. It just sounds like utter horseshit.

[scotfree]

Queensland Health has come out and said that they expect 25% of the population will come down with the virus. I was thinking that that was rather low. But when I think about it 25% of the Queensland population will be around 1.2 Million. They also said that 80% of the people who catch the virus would have only mild symptoms. So if I've not fucked up my maths that means around 300,000 are going to have a hard time. And with around a 10% fatality rate that means 30,000 fatalities. 

 

We had 264 deaths from the Flu last year.

[rocket_scientist]

How could it work? Surely herd immunity requires global herd immunity? I don't get it. Unless we're closing all borders until there's a vaccine? Is this nae yer basic smallpox training? I'm probably missing something.

 

You're asking the wrong dude, dude. The first I'd ever heard the term "herd immunity" was in a text today and the second time I heard it was at 8.10 pm tonight on Channel 4.

 

It appears that the poster above and Boris know all about it however but I'm with you, my instinct is screaming total horseshit.

 

Four specific reasons to support my instinct on this point - other than the obvious consistency of instinct (over half a century experience in my case) - is that the guy arguing for it was a tit, Boris is a cunt, the guy who wrote a convincing argument was dead against it and finally, I trust my daughter, her intellect, experience and judgement in this particular field. And fifthly, good old fashioned integrity and common sense, which is none too common of course but in "leaders" like Boris (and Trump), is completely void.

[rocket_scientist]

If I could isolate right now, I would but since my wife will inevitably be redeployed to the front line of the NHS, I'm at equal high risk. The UK needs to lock down right now. The guy on Question Time last night was bang on, despite Fiona's best BBC efforts to shut him up.

[rocket_scientist]

Queensland Health has come out and said that they expect 25% of the population will come down with the virus. I was thinking that that was rather low. But when I think about it 25% of the Queensland population will be around 1.2 Million. They also said that 80% of the people who catch the virus would have only mild symptoms. So if I've not fucked up my maths that means around 300,000 are going to have a hard time. And with around a 10% fatality rate that means 30,000 fatalities. 

 

We had 264 deaths from the Flu last year.

 

24,000 fatalities @ 80% mild

[scotfree]

What the fuck.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html

 

[manc_don]

Heard about that yesterday , hard to believe, but then again I don’t trust the yanks as far as I could throw them.

 

Nz has become the tightest in terms of their border control. All those entering from outside Nz (pacific island excluded) will have to self quarantine for 14 days . Starting tomorrow.

 

 

[RicoS321]

You're asking the wrong dude, dude. The first I'd ever heard the term "herd immunity" was in a text today and the second time I heard it was at 8.10 pm tonight on Channel 4.

 

It appears that the poster above and Boris know all about it however but I'm with you, my instinct is screaming total horseshit

 

To be fair to ten cast, I thought he was explaining the decision rather than agreeing with it.

 

Anyway, I've thought some more and I still don't get it. These guys are scientists, so where the fuck is their published workings? I'm all for listening to experts, of course, but they shouldn't be immune to questioning or scrutiny (not even herd immune).

 

They're suggesting that 60% infections - but perhaps as high as 70% (wtf???) - would be required. If ~13% (based on statista 2018) are 70 or over and probably a few percent more classed as high risk, then they''re pretty much saying that everyone that can conceivably survive it not only needs to get it in order for the plan to work, but should be morally compelled to do so. Simultaneously, they're expected to diligently wash their hands and also isolate if they get the illness, thus preventing others from joining the herd immunity herd. But making sure you only speak to 'al cunts via the internet.

 

The thing that gets me is that we're asking the elderly and ill to isolate from the young. We're not all going to do it. It's the one instance where we all literally could have been "in it together", and we're choosing not to. I think we'll look back on this and see that we've performed a giant form of social/age cleansing. I think that we'll (and the US) be held up as the uncaring, selfish society that we are/have become. It'll be couched in denial and nationalism of course, but we'll all know that we sentenced our most vulnerable to death in order not to panic the markets or some fuck. Because even if you thought this herd bollocks had any chance of working, you'd err on the side of caution.

 

Whilst businesses and sporting bodies will do the government's job mostly for them on this one by telling employees to work at home or cancelling events, the government is needed to make sure folk get paid, mortgage or rent payments suspended and such like, so it's absolutely vital that those in charge get their shit together. They're probably genuinely concerned that the veil of the economic system is thrown off for all to see, where you simply can just say "nobody has to pay their mortgage today" and it happens, and that there is - after all - a magic money tree.

[TheDeeDon]

I know nothing about how it will all pan out, but don't trust the mop headed idiot in the slightest and am quite sure he is hoping to see large numbers of people dead from this.  The interesting bit of this for me is how uncomfortable the guy from Public Health England looks when speaking alongside Boris. Looks like a man not used to telling large scale lies.

 

Also, do we really want to hear from experts with titles? I for one don't, these guys don't get their titles for nothing, they get them for going along with the spin the are told too. We seem to ve heading in a direction away from other countries who have had some success with the measures they have taken.

 

I feel the economic impact will be worse than the impact to the public health and could take us years to recover.

[scotfree]

 

 

[Ten Caat]

I absolutely wasn't saying I'm agreeing with anything, but to put any blame on Boris for what is happening is also pretty ridiculous. He's a journalist turned politician. He's taking his instructions from the Chief Medical Officers of the various constituent countries of the UK.....with no professional insight into it what else can he do but just trust it and hope for the best.

 

When I  said "some form of herd immunity"....as I stated before....true herd immunity requires about 90-95% (preferably the upper) to be inoculated or have some acquired prior immunity (can be gained by suffering an infection and recovering) to a communicable disease to guarantee that mass outbreaks cannot happen. Computerised projections cast the worst case scenario in the UK that 80% of the population could catch this thing. Why? because it's a totally new disease to humans. There is no current inoculation available to prevent it (although various labs have created one, its being tested on animals right now). As with the last world infection crisis...the AIDS epidemic of the mid 80s...there will be a derogation from normal testing regimes which generally take 3 years or so to bring a new medicine to the market in order to get this vaccination out there asap. ^ months minimum, more likely nearer 12 though. Now I don't believe for a minute that 80% of us will catch this. But right now with nothing to treat it effectively it will for sure infect swathes of us. Those who require hospitalisation right now are purely treated on a symptomatic support regime....to make that simple, all we can do at present is attend to the symptoms and hope that it keeps a person alive long enough until the person's own immune system creates enough antibodies by itself to fight the disease off.

 

And RS....I'm a fairly recently retired nurse manager by profession. I have more insight into it than Joe Public for sure but don't claim to be an expert. I am standing by to be recalled to the front-line as this will put mahoosive pressure on the NHS as your wife will know. The Italian Health service (which btw is far better resourced than ours) it at breaking point. All leave has been cancelled there, in the north where the concentration of infections have taken place medical and paramedical staff are starting to drop like flies through sheer exhaustion. How the gvt deals with bring back retired nurses isn't quite as simple as it sounds. We have to re-register evry 3 years, self certifying that we have completed at least the minimum required professional updates/training. Ive retired so let my registration lapse at its last renewal. I obviously cannot meet the updates stipulation...and I certainly aint paying to do a refresher course (nor my registration fees) even if they could organise such courses for people like me at short notice. If the worst comes to the worst they'll have to derogate from this and just bring us back regardless. Im sure most of us retirees would be happy to help but not to pay through the nose for the privelige….

[RicoS321]

Good stuff TC, I'm fairly certain you'll just get thrown back in at the deep end without concern for registration! Good for you like, I wouldn't fancy it (but would do it if I had the ability).

 

Your saying that you don't believe that anywhere near 80% will catch it, but the herd strategy requires that somewhere near that figure get it. Without an NHS-overwhelming number getting it, the herd immunity won't work. In order for it to work, a large number of people must die at a 1% mortality rate. That's fairly fucked up.

 

 

[Ten Caat]

Yep but it's why the government now actually want us to catch it in very large numbers....just spread out over months rather than weeks. The general idea being that once we've had it and recovered, we can get back to normal life sharpish. If 60% of us got it then for sure herd immunity hasn't been achieved per se...but at those levels any future spread will start to wane naturally and pretty rapidly to manageable levels until the vaccine is available. There are reports of some sufferers being reinfected and whilst this is concerning, it's in relatively small numbers and I actually think what will be proven eventually is that these aren't re-infections at all, rather that the person was acutely ill, seemed to improve as their body fought the infection off but actually didn't clear it fully and the virus re-established itself. This happens in a small number of any infective disease. Actually happens very commonly in elderly females who get bladder infections (although these are almost 100% bacterial infections) and no amount of antibiotics seems to shift the residual infection. Btw for the uninitiated....some people ask why don't antibiotics work against covid-19. The answer lies in the nature of what a virus is. Viruses are animal in nature. Bacteria are vegetable. Antibiotics only work for bacterial infections. Now we do have a limited number of anti-viral medications...the AIDS crisis in the 80s brought about their development fairly rapidly. But unlike most antibiotics which are effective against a number of different bacterial infections (theyre called broad spectrum antibiotics...the penicillin group being the most famous) , anti-virals on the whole seem to act more specifically. And theyre also a lot more expensive than antibiotics. Vaccination is therefore the best route to go down to eventually eliminate this rather than developing a new anti-viral which could take years.

[rocket_scientist]

Further posts from the virology and public health expert in our family;

 

"Watching the C4 news thing and frustrated that no one is pointing out why herd immunity is such a risky strategy for covid. Known coronaviruses only have lasting immunity for 3 months! So if everyone gets infected, then there will still be no herd immunity because people will start becoming susceptible again".

 

After my wife said - "I think the guy from America expressed his thoughts on herd immunity by his gestures alone " - my daughter said - "He talked more about the infection rate, the thing that the London tropical medicine guy seems to be missing is the point that herd immunity can only be possible if people who are infected develop lasting immunity and we have no evidence for that being the case".

 

 

The bottom line is that we lay people don't understand this field and we need to rely on our leaders to protect us. Our "leaders", including the wank from the government on QT this week don't understand the situation either. They are quick to mention "the science" and naturally they acknowledge that they're being advised. So the WHOLE ISSUE relies on whether the advice that they're acting on is good or bad.

 

Like everything, there are differing opinions. In something as crucial as a pandemic, we can't afford to get it wrong. The UK is engaging a strategy that no other country is doing. Either our advisers to our government are cleverer than every other scientist on the planet or they're fools who are committing a major capital crime, for which the PM is ultimately culpable. Negligence is well defined in law and choosing to act on bad advice is no defence to a result of a million of our citizens being wiped out, should this come to pass. There would be something in law termed strict liability applying here, particularly when the PM has been advised strongly and vehemently by others not to follow this strategy and there is no precedent, medically or otherwise to choose to rely on it. It's a highly dangerous and risky strategy that may have dire consequences. I just hope his "Brexit thinking", born from a sense of ignorance and arrogance that "Great Britain is greater than everyone else" isn't behind him choosing to be the outlier here.

[rocket_scientist]

In the worst case scenario, that the UK's strategy results in our people suffering a massively disproportionate death rate, the biggest nail in Boris's coffin (legally speaking) will be the credentials of the people he chose to ignore. The guy Ryan at WHO didn't miss in his press conference yesterday. They have been screaming for action and he made some excellent points about inaction, leadership and human nature.

 

Three further reasons that concern me about the UK outlier strategy are as follows: -

 

Our PM himself. He has a track record of lying, he's a man on the make with zero integrity. He's also not very bright but skews and hides this by having learned oratory skills in his public schooling and university days. His blustering buffoon act is uniquely his, a disguise and a mask he wears but underneath this he is convinced of his own superiority, although his career and life record and especially his total lack of achievement (other than political office) proves otherwise.

 

Secondly, what our health professionals say. 99% of NHS staff know that we are underprepared. That's the percentage that the Channel 4 survey found and whilst TC may be in the 1%, it is fact that our front line staff have been measured for the protective suits (weeks ago in some cases) and have failed to get them, meanwhile infected patients are turning up at their doors.

 

Thirdly, the Irish company who have developed a self testing kit (which can tell in ten minutes) have been ignored by Boris. They've sent 20,000 to South Korea but we don't want to know. I don't get how identifying those amongst us who are infected already can NOT be a good thing. I fear this is one more concrete example of our government being unfit for purpose.

[Ten Caat]

Not entirely true about the known coronaviruses RS. The common cold and influenza are both coronaviruses for example.

 

Taking them individually...influenza is the more "serious". But there are relatively few strains of influenza, tending to keep themselves to fairly specific areas of the globe that don't spread in epidemic numbers to other areas ; compared to the common cold...which really are thousands  of different viruses that all produce roughly the same symptoms if infecting us. And all viruses have to mutate to survive. They'd die off if they didn't....once we have had one we have our antibodies that would prevent further infection. Now in the case of influenza....it takes around 8-12 years on average to fully mutate into a totally new strain. Until it does so...if you have had influenza you have the inherent resistance to it that means you cant get it again until its fully mutated. Flu vaccinations are made up of 3 strains of deactivated virus ....they always contain last years main infective strain plus a couple of others that virologists "best guess" that they think might take hold.

 

There's no common cold vaccine purely because there are just far too many viruses that cause it to make one both clinically and cost effective. Nevertheless..the common cold can and does claim lives every year. Just pretty much all within the elderly or people with serious co morbidities. We can certainy get 3 or 4 colds in a year...each one caused by a different strain of virus

 

Now we think that covid-19 is a similar acting virus to that which caused SARS back in the early 2000s (was it 2001 off the top of my head?) Still too early in the progression to tell....but if it is then the immunity will be much the same as it is for influenza. So years rather than months, possibly permanent,

 

[TheDeeDon]

In the worst case scenario, that the UK's strategy results in our people suffering a massively disproportionate death rate, the biggest nail in Boris's coffin (legally speaking) will be the credentials of the people he chose to ignore. The guy Ryan at WHO didn't miss in his press conference yesterday. They have been screaming for action and he made some excellent points about inaction, leadership and human nature.

 

Three further reasons that concern me about the UK outlier strategy are as follows: -

 

Our PM himself. He has a track record of lying, he's a man on the make with zero integrity. He's also not very bright but skews and hides this by having learned oratory skills in his public schooling and university days. His blustering buffoon act is uniquely his, a disguise and a mask he wears but underneath this he is convinced of his own superiority, although his career and life record and especially his total lack of achievement (other than political office) proves otherwise.

 

Secondly, what our health professionals say. 99% of NHS staff know that we are underprepared. That's the percentage that the Channel 4 survey found and whilst TC may be in the 1%, it is fact that our front line staff have been measured for the protective suits (weeks ago in some cases) and have failed to get them, meanwhile infected patients are turning up at their doors.

 

Thirdly, the Irish company who have developed a self testing kit (which can tell in ten minutes) have been ignored by Boris. They've sent 20,000 to South Korea but we don't want to know. I don't get how identifying those amongst us who are infected already can NOT be a good thing. I fear this is one more concrete example of our government being unfit for purpose.

 

I have to agree with what you have written. Boris being in charge is what scares me most. Even if it killed 90% of the population, he would still think he did great by saving 10% of us.

 

The NHS will do its best, but 10 years of austerity will really come back and bite us on the arse over the next few months.

 

Strong and stable government right enough!

[rocket_scientist]

I have to agree with what you have written. Boris being in charge is what scares me most. Even if it killed 90% of the population, he would still think he did great by saving 10% of us.

 

The NHS will do its best, but 10 years of austerity will really come back and bite us on the arse over the next few months.

 

Strong and stable government right enough!

 

The NHS are vulnerable to collapse very quickly. For a start we have half the amount of beds and respirators available per capita than Italy, who are already making decisions on who to let die (plus they've reduced the exponential curve by following world advice and locking down). That's just one example of our underresourcing. Our staff are ill-equipped and already insufficient in number, exactly for the reason you said, austerity and cuts over the whole of the last decade.

 

The sickest joke is money before people. It won't be obvious to most, including those who are working and who have worked in the NHS that for 20+ years, our successive governments, in tandem with the corporates, have been attempting to privatise the NHS by stealth. Pilger's superb documentary was aired 3 months ago. By flooding the staff with non-productive middle management and increased administration and wasting money by over-charging for external services, the introduction of PFI's are being facilitated by a reduction of core resources, the worst examples being the rape by big pharma. My wife is forced to pay £60k per patient p.a. for the same treatments that Australia pays $250 p.a. for, from the same company, for the exact same drugs. And nobody in government cares and the bureaucrats aren't listening to the specialists and are ignoring our consultants, the best medically qualified people to know.

[rocket_scientist]

TC, your very first sentence proves that you are, like the rest of us including our leaders, not expert in this field.

 

"Flu is not caused by coronavirus. It is caused by influenza viridae (i.e. the flu virus). It is very distinct from coronavirus, though some aspects of them can be interesting to compare (e.g. flu also doesn’t have lasting immunity, which is why there are new flu vaccines each year). Common cold is caused by a few different viruses, some of which are coronaviruses. Also rhinoviruses (rhino meaning nose here, as it gives you a runny nose!) and a few others.

 

He is right that antibiotics do not work against viral infections because viruses and bacteria are totally different entities. The idea that viruses are animal based and bacteria are plant based is complete bollocks though, no clue where that came from. The first virus ever identified actually infected tobacco plants".

 

 

I could give you the whole text but what's the point?

 

"Some of this is reasonable speculation and some is bullshit and the fact that he is stating some nonsense as fact would make me doubt his credibility overall. It annoys me that he keeps talking with authority but is getting some things totally backwards. Not all of it mind you - some of it is right or nearly right. My assessment is that the person posting this has some knowledge on the topic, but they know far less than they think they do!"

 

 

Edit: you said "for the uninitiated" which expressly states that YOU are part of the initiated. A nurse manager (retired) is not a virologist. Stop trying to come across as knowing more than you do. It's ugly to witness and further, your inability to think and write with simplicity and clarity is hard work to endure.

 

 

[Ten Caat]

Viruses are absolutely animal in nature. They can infect plants. They consist of DNA or RNA inside a protein wall. There is indeed some debate in the scientific community if viruses are truly a lifeform at all. They can only survive for any length of time and certainly only reproduce themselves by invading a host.

 

Bacteria are absolutely vegetable in nature. They can infect animals. They have a cell wall with cytotoplasm and can exist independently and reproduce without the necessity to infect a living host.

 

Would you agree that fungi are vegetable in nature? You are bound to agree that animals get fungal infections? Your missus has probably had thrush at some point in life. A vegetable infecting a human...who knew it?

 

And no I'm not a virologist. And I'll tell you my source for saying this. We had a lecture from Dr G. Petrie ex consultant chest physician in my 3rd year of General nurse trainng, 1987.....prior to placement in Chest Unit Cameron Hospital Windygates.

 

If you dont like what Ive posted...block me you boring irritating little cunt. 

 

 

[Ten Caat]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus