Coronavirus

[rocket_scientist]

We watched the Trump press briefing live from the Rose Garden last night. It was more of the same. We then flicked through some news channels and I watched CNN for the first time in years. It was amazing. Some guy called Dom or Don Lemon and a team of experts analysed what the President had said and showed clips of what he had been saying previously. It was factual reporting, not the fake news that Trump says it is. I knew that a huge number on social media were big on exposing the stupidity and the lies but I didn't know a mainstream media outlet were honest enough and courageous enough to report truth. This is bitter and it is sweet. Trump is clinically insane.

[minijc]

We watched the Trump press briefing live from the Rose Garden last night. It was more of the same. We then flicked through some news channels and I watched CNN for the first time in years. It was amazing. Some guy called Dom or Don Lemon and a team of experts analysed what the President had said and showed clips of what he had been saying previously. It was factual reporting, not the fake news that Trump says it is. I knew that a huge number on social media were big on exposing the stupidity and the lies but I didn't know a mainstream media outlet were honest enough and courageous enough to report truth. This is bitter and it is sweet. Trump is clinically insane.

There's plenty of clips of our government officials saying similar as well but our media seems to be complicit in allowing them to spout whatever pish they want and not hold them accountable for it.  From Boris on This Morning just 3 weeks ago saying we should just take this on the chin to the whole party wanting to implement herd immunity and the off the record comments from Cummings.  Sadly because Trump has ran with this fake news thing it means that most of those that have fallen for it are too dumb to see the truth and acknowledge it, too many people have picked their side and won't concede even when those they support completely fuck up, we're living in a very strange time.

[RicoS321]

There's plenty of clips of our government officials saying similar as well but our media seems to be complicit in allowing them to spout whatever pish they want and not hold them accountable for it.  From Boris on This Morning just 3 weeks ago saying we should just take this on the chin to the whole party wanting to implement herd immunity and the off the record comments from Cummings.  Sadly because Trump has ran with this fake news thing it means that most of those that have fallen for it are too dumb to see the truth and acknowledge it, too many people have picked their side and won't concede even when those they support completely fuck up, we're living in a very strange time.

 

Yep, I think the Guardian ran something on Boris' ever changing positions. There have been a lot. Even in the last 24 hours, Gove has downgraded his 10,000 per day to "the capacity for 10,000 test per day". I appreciate that it is very difficult for journalists to be completely on top of the current position, given the pace at which things are moving, but it's almost like they haven't prepared any follow up questions whatsoever when they speak to politicians (or football managers for that matter). Ask question -> get response -> thank interviewee for response. Rather than have data to hand ready to raise the pertinent questions as soon as they begin their pish. As Rocket has mentioned a few times, the channel four guys are significantly more prepared and better at asking questions.

[rocket_scientist]

There's plenty of clips of our government officials saying similar as well but our media seems to be complicit in allowing them to spout whatever pish they want and not hold them accountable for it.  From Boris on This Morning just 3 weeks ago saying we should just take this on the chin to the whole party wanting to implement herd immunity and the off the record comments from Cummings.  Sadly because Trump has ran with this fake news thing it means that most of those that have fallen for it are too dumb to see the truth and acknowledge it, too many people have picked their side and won't concede even when those they support completely fuck up, we're living in a very strange time.

 

One of the experts on CNN in the early hours of this morning mentioned the UK and our failed Herd Immunity strategy. Rico and me smelt shite and said it made no sense to us within hours of hearing about it for the first time.

 

The biggest crimes against humanity in the west have been Boris and Trump not seeing the severity of the situation quickly enough. There is a mountain of evidence online to convict Trump in this regard and in the UK, the schools closures and the social isolation/distancing/lockdown measures were implemented by a reactive government too late, reacting purely on public demands including non-government-employed scientists and social media rather than "the science" that they said they were following in their laughable attempts to present themselves as leading the fight.

 

When Blow Job said Operation Last Gasp in relation to the ventilators one week ago, this was more to do with his contrived image of being a jolly japester more than him being flippant about the virus, although it did reveal the depths of his inhumanity. The BBC, ITV and Sky have been giving the inept government too easy a ride. The damage has been done and many thousands of lives have been and will be lost by failing to act with intelligence.

[rocket_scientist]

In my non-expert opinion, this released today is irresponsible: -

 

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said he was being given NHS data that showed a slowing in new hospital admissions as social distancing measures imposed in recent weeks start to have an effect.

 

For a start, many are asymptomatic in the first days and we have yet to get close to the top of the curve. Even Trump had been told to say last night that calling victory too early on this war would be a big mistake. It was only last weekend that Snowdonia reported their highest ever visitor numbers. We have seen packed tubes last week, packed streets in Birmingham, packed supermarket queues everywhere and tons of non-essential workers (including in construction) still mixing. We should see more of the Cheltenham racegoers coming to hospital imminently as their symptoms would've started recently and may worsen now. I wonder how many of them have since died or who are on ventilators? We did NOT stop spreading the virus in big enough numbers until 6 or 7 days ago so more shit will inevitably hit the fan.

 

I wonder if this academic (and therefore possibly not of the real world, and even more likely not to be if this government choose him to be within their select circle) has been inspired by "only" 209 dying in the 24 hours through Saturday, as reported on a Sunday? If today's figures aren't the highest daily death rate yet recorded, we might have some hope for optimism, that the plateau is within sight. It's way too early to know I reckon.

 

[LA-Don]

In my non-expert opinion, this released today is irresponsible: -

 

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said he was being given NHS data that showed a slowing in new hospital admissions as social distancing measures imposed in recent weeks start to have an effect.

 

For a start, many are asymptomatic in the first days and we have yet to get close to the top of the curve. Even Trump had been told to say last night that calling victory too early on this war would be a big mistake. It was only last weekend that Snowdonia reported their highest ever visitor numbers. We have seen packed tubes last week, packed streets in Birmingham, packed supermarket queues everywhere and tons of non-essential workers (including in construction) still mixing. We should see more of the Cheltenham racegoers coming to hospital imminently as their symptoms would've started recently and may worsen now. I wonder how many of them have since died or who are on ventilators? We did NOT stop spreading the virus in big enough numbers until 6 or 7 days ago so more shit will inevitably hit the fan.

 

I wonder if this academic (and therefore possibly not of the real world, and even more likely not to be if this government choose him to be within their select circle) has been inspired by "only" 209 dying in the 24 hours through Saturday, as reported on a Sunday? If today's figures aren't the highest daily death rate yet recorded, we might have some hope for optimism, that the plateau is within sight. It's way too early to know I reckon.

 

 

Our numbers are still increasing in the US and we certainly haven’t hit our worst yet, and we are ahead of Britain in regards to taking steps to prevent the spreading. I’d expect Britain’s worst in 2-3 weeks so to say social distancing is already having positive results to me is totally wrong. All that will do, obviously, is encourage more people to socialize again. We’re not ready for that yet.

[RicoS321]

In my non-expert opinion, this released today is irresponsible: -

 

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said he was being given NHS data that showed a slowing in new hospital admissions as social distancing measures imposed in recent weeks start to have an effect.

 

I just saw the headline and assumed it was a heap of bollocks. I also read that they were talking about amending the recorded deaths to include those that occurred out with hospital settings, but I can't find where I read it. Were we seriously not recording deaths in homes? That seems a little negligent. Not that I'd expect the volumes to be huge, but they're likely to be going forward as hospitals become overcrowded and people are forced to stay at home. Anyway, I'm guessing lower admission to hospitals are because nae cunt wants to go near the Corona-ridden places and fancy their chances at home

[Kowalski]

And yet the Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance has said much the same thing.

What’s wrong with a bit of positivity? We don’t appear to be matching the trend of Italy anymore.

[minijc]

And yet the Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance has said much the same thing.

What’s wrong with a bit of positivity? We don’t appear to be matching the trend of Italy anymore.

Going with financial times trajectories we are still on a par with them, I'm concerned that we aren't testing enough, Gove said yesterday that we have reached 10000 tests, however the actual number is only 7000, then Raab today has said "no test is better than a bad test" which implies that we simply aren't testing as much as we need to which in turn skews the numbers quite a bit, I fully expect out deaths to be quite high tomorrow and Wednesday.

[rocket_scientist]

Going with financial times trajectories we are still on a par with them, I'm concerned that we aren't testing enough, Gove said yesterday that we have reached 10000 tests, however the actual number is only 7000, then Raab today has said "no test is better than a bad test" which implies that we simply aren't testing as much as we need to which in turn skews the numbers quite a bit, I fully expect out deaths to be quite high tomorrow and Wednesday.

 

As far as I can see - excluding the rich who paid privately - the only testing that is getting done is at hospital, the principal reason being to know who to isolate. The vast majority of our front line NHS staff have not been tested and therefore may still be acting as superspreaders.

 

Testing is vital of course but the data tracking is how we learn how to manage it. Given the incredibly slow pace at which the UK continues to test very insignificant numbers, each day that goes by is another opportunity lost. Even 6,000 tests per day - which may well be more than the daily average this month - is one hundredth of one per cent i.e. 0.01% of the population and at that rate, that's 10,000 days of testing required to cover the whole population, which would take more than 27 years. For clarity, I'm not saying that they need to test 100% of all people in the UK but these numbers give some context of how bad we've been thus far in the crucial testing requirement.

 

Deaths being lower for the second day in a row will hopefully prove to be a great sign but I think we need a few more days data before we can see any definitive trend.

[TheDeeDon]

Going with financial times trajectories we are still on a par with them, I'm concerned that we aren't testing enough, Gove said yesterday that we have reached 10000 tests, however the actual number is only 7000, then Raab today has said "no test is better than a bad test" which implies that we simply aren't testing as much as we need to which in turn skews the numbers quite a bit, I fully expect out deaths to be quite high tomorrow and Wednesday.

 

I also dont think that the lockdown measures have been in place long enough to know enough as to how badly the UK is going to be hit by the virus, we just seem to be a bit too casual in our ouutlook this virus at government level.

 

Something just doesn't feel right with what we are being told by our government clowns and are these figures being fudged for political reasons to suit agendas?

 

Did anyone else want to boak when Bojo told us there was such a thing as society after all. 

[LA-Don]

Media in California today saying that ‘experts’ predict we will peak at the end of April, so we are a month out! I’d assume Britain is similar or worse.

[rocket_scientist]

1. I also dont think that the lockdown measures have been in place long enough to know enough as to how badly the UK is going to be hit by the virus, we just seem to be a bit too casual in our ouutlook this virus at government level.

 

2. Something just doesn't feel right with what we are being told by our government clowns and are these figures being fudged for political reasons to suit agendas?

 

3. Did anyone else want to boak when Bojo told us there was such a thing as society after all.

 

1. I agree. It's too early to know.

 

2. I agree in that I understand your lack of trust in this government but trying to fudge the figures would be a big mistake, if they were stupid enough to try, which I'm not sure that even they are.

 

I have been surprised that the daily death rates have been reported as 87, 43, 113, 181, 269, 207 and 180 for the last seven days. They explained the 43 as them cutting off the timing of the counting to 1 p.m. (for the deaths that day) but I certainly didn't expect the daily totals to go down two days in a row at this stage, so soon after a fudged lockdown that came way too late anyway. Why would they, given what we know about the virus and how it hit the populations in other countries at the same stages of the process? Now that the arsehole Sir is mentioning the at-home deaths as he did today, I too wonder if they're under-reporting these last 48 hours. It will wash out, I'm sure.

 

3. I did see that Blow Job was speaking about that but haven't had time to check out that article so will get round to it now.

 

 

 

 

[rocket_scientist]

Media in California today saying that ‘experts’ predict we will peak at the end of April, so we are a month out! I’d assume Britain is similar or worse.

 

I was surprised that you wrote this: -

 

Our numbers are still increasing in the US and we certainly haven’t hit our worst yet, and we are ahead of Britain in regards to taking steps to prevent the spreading.

 

Is that incompatible, being ahead of the UK in "taking steps to prevent" and you saying that we may be worse? It's probably my misinterpreting your words but I don't know the extent of the US overall lockdown, or at least how well or otherwise it's being observed.

 

We watched Trump live again tonight. Not as car crash tragic as usual this time but he did manage to berate a couple of questioners for quoting him back his own words just as he did yesterday. He's a fucking walloper that cunt. The US is going to go stratospheric in the death rate this week I reckon.

 

 

[RicoS321]

Yep, the LA area might be okay (I don't know), but the US as a whole isn't way ahead of the UK. It's vastly behind on testing and very short on supplies, much like the UK. Obviously comparing the US and the UK is a little unfair on the US, but Europe, collectively, is ahead of the US in terms of testing and preparedness, with massive variations country to country of course. I'm guessing the state to state outcomes will be similar. I'd be interested to know why you think the US is faring better LA don?

[rocket_scientist]

It's been interesting seeing the alternative views on the crisis, questioning the need for wrecking the economy and arguing that the cost of the lockdown measures aren't proportionate to the devastation of the disease. Lord Sumption's interview yesterday was picked up as being critical of heavy-handed policing and "a police state" would've blinded the "panic-buyers", the likes of Piers Morgan being the champion, but have we all been duped and into panicking about a virus that wouldn't prove to be that devastating anyway? Sumption makes some good points. It's a pity Peter Hitchens is his strong advocate but in Peter and Piers, it's quite sweet that we have two similarly unlovable pompous arseholes at either side of the debate.

 

Trump said last week that the cure can't be worse than the disease but he's such a mad money-centric narcissist with an astonishing capacity to hold no empathy for other people, he's not a serious listen but even on this thread last week, there were some experts giving alternative views.

 

Interesting extremes of strategies being put on the table now. As a non-expert on virology and epidemiology, I was inclined to swallow the mass-induced view and bought the need to panic but as a constantly-questioning open mind, it's going to be fascinating to see the alternative points of view grow legs, if indeed they do.

[rocket_scientist]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

Here's one such alternative view. Stanford University is one of the best seats of learning on the planet.

[rocket_scientist]

This one hits my spot. We simply don't have enough proper data: -

 

[rocket_scientist]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think/amp?__twitter_impression=true

 

Indisputably intelligent reasoning here too.

 

Without testing, we have no real data. Without data, we can't know what to do.

[dons8321]

1. I agree. It's too early to know.

 

2. I agree in that I understand your lack of trust in this government but trying to fudge the figures would be a big mistake, if they were stupid enough to try, which I'm not sure that even they are.

 

I have been surprised that the daily death rates have been reported as 87, 43, 113, 181, 269, 207 and 180 for the last seven days. They explained the 43 as them cutting off the timing of the counting to 1 p.m. (for the deaths that day) but I certainly didn't expect the daily totals to go down two days in a row at this stage, so soon after a fudged lockdown that came way too late anyway. Why would they, given what we know about the virus and how it hit the populations in other countries at the same stages of the process? Now that the arsehole Sir is mentioning the at-home deaths as he did today, I too wonder if they're under-reporting these last 48 hours. It will wash out, I'm sure.

 

 

From Guardian online today (and this is only figures for England) -

28m ago      English death toll rises by 367 to 1,651

14:47          A total of 1,651 people who have tested positive for coronavirus in England have died, up 367 from 1,284 on Monday, NHS England said.

 

Looks like saying social distancing was working is a little premature

[RicoS321]

Indisputably intelligent reasoning here too.

 

Without testing, we have no real data. Without data, we can't know what to do.

 

I suppose that you have to look at South Korea or Iceland (I think it was Iceland) who have done extensive testing. I agree, that testing is - and always has been - the key to it. It seems to be that the mortality rate will not be anymore than normal flu assuming that yer hospitals can cope with the influx, but if your hospitals get overwhelmed then lots more people die. Sweden will be an interesting case in point, as they have put few measures in place and are not testing in huge volumes either. But at the moment, we have data from Italy, which suggests that an unrestricted virus will infect enough people that hospitals will not cope and tens of thousands will die. We have data from South Korea that says testing and isolating based only on the results of those tests will allow people some level of freedom, whilst others remain isolated and significantly less die. What we may be able to say is that in Italy and probably the UK, we may end up with a similar number of deaths than if we hadn't bothered, because the health service(s) are/will be overwhelmed, and I expect that'll be used to make the: "it wouldn't have made a difference what we did" case, which of course ignores South Korea's approach. I suppose the one thing that we have to remember about the hospitals being overwhelmed, is that it really isn't very long since the English NHS had a small child sleeping on their floor covered in jackets being ignored by the Prime Minister. Arguably the NHS has been overwhelmed for some time and people will already have beeen dying because of this over the last decade, so perhaps this virus just give it a convenient package.

[rocket_scientist]

Looks like saying social distancing was working is a little premature

 

It certainly was, as we said.

 

Today's shocking number is tragic but what concerns me is that they are quoting 380 dead today and a total of 1,789 and yet the total dead yesterday was 1,415, which is 374 less than the new total. This has been happening daily, that the amount of daily deaths and the new totals don't follow mathematically from the total quoted the day before.

 

I had learned that Sky and the Guardian and the BBC etc. will often have slightly different numbers - possibly due to the timings and whether or not they failed to take into account the daily fatalities in Wales, Northern ireland or Scotland - but I really can't understand the government making very simple arithmetical errors on MOST of the days in the last 3 weeks. This alone makes a (very slight) contribution to my (already entrenched) distrust of the UK Westminster government.

 

Live right now, following on from the "green shoots" of false optimism they started spinning yesterday, they're selectively using stats and charts to attempt to provide a basis for their new-found optimism. This government are liars and the U-turn they've done on two major social impacts are proof enough to me that they're fucking useless.

[baggy89]

Picked up that the thinking around today’s increase is that they were just counting confirmed (tested) hospital patients who became fatalities. Today they started to include suspected hospitalised cases, and we will see another “correction” when they start to count those passing at home both confirmed and suspected.

[LA-Don]

Yep, the LA area might be okay (I don't know), but the US as a whole isn't way ahead of the UK. It's vastly behind on testing and very short on supplies, much like the UK. Obviously comparing the US and the UK is a little unfair on the US, but Europe, collectively, is ahead of the US in terms of testing and preparedness, with massive variations country to country of course. I'm guessing the state to state outcomes will be similar. I'd be interested to know why you think the US is faring better LA don?

 

I’m not saying that the US is faring better. In my post I mentioned media claiming we’ll hit our worst at the end of april and it Sounds like you might be at your worst in 2-3 weeks. I’m just going by what family are saying in the uk, and what I’m reading, suggests you haven’t hit your worst either, and two days of good news doesn’t mean you’re past your worst. Certainly hope you are but don’t see it.

[Madbadteacher]

Illinois today: 937 new cases; 36 deaths; total cases now 5994; deaths 99

 

“Stay at home order extended to April 40th