Make or break / Dons vs Staggies

[RicoS321]

1 hour ago, Elgindon said:

Without looking,how many of those new manager bounce guys fizzle out the following season or 2?  Assuming the current squad were 'bouncy' in the first place. 

    Whatever our opinions,Goodwin needs a longer grace period than he appears to be getting

I agree, I was just pointing out that it's very common for a new manager to put a run of results together when they first join. For what it's worth, I don't think it really applies to a team that has a high turnover of managers. We might have expected a new manager bounce with Glass (we didn't), but the players that have been there since McInnes must feel a little disillusioned by this point. Similar to when we moved from calderwood through to Brown I expect.

[Panda]

4 hours ago, RicoS321 said:

There are many, many examples of that. It even has a name: the new manager bounce. There's studies on it and everything. It apparently has a 15 game average effect. 

It doesn't always occur. It generally has no bearing on the long term performance of the manager.

I'd say Aitken's arrival is the only time we've ever had that. 

[Goldie03]

Remember when Patterson arrived amidst all the expectation and we were shit from day one 

 

[RicoS321]

6 hours ago, Panda said:

I'd say Aitken's arrival is the only time we've ever had that. 

I didn't suggest it was applicable to us, just that it's a fairly well known phenomenon. It also only "works" if you sack a manager during a season. That only started happening in the nineties with Aitken taking over from Miller. Hegarty gave us a level of improvement after Satan too. Paterson, Brown, McInnes and Glass with no bounce.

[tom_widdows]

12 hours ago, Panda said:

I'd say Aitken's arrival is the only time we've ever had that. 

2-0 win over the tax evaders immediately followed by 5 defeats and 2 draws (including the Stenhousemuire game)
Not sure I can call that a new manager bounce.

Big difference that season was the team still had seasoned pros and internationals in the side who had enough 'pride' to eventually get their act together.

Snelders, McKimme, Shearer, Dodds, Miller, Irvine, Wright, Jess and co



 

[Panda]

4 hours ago, tom_widdows said:

2-0 win over the tax evaders immediately followed by 5 defeats and 2 draws (including the Stenhousemuire game)
Not sure I can call that a new manager bounce.

 

Happy to be proved wrong on this one as it only backs up my original point that this new manager bounce thing is rare.

[tom_widdows]

1 hour ago, Panda said:

Happy to be proved wrong on this one as it only backs up my original point that this new manager bounce thing is rare.

21 hours ago, tom_widdows said:

The last time we came close to a 'new manager bounce' Id say was Paul Hegarty in December 1998
3 wins and a draw

 

 

[Panda]

3 hours ago, tom_widdows said:

 

Still not sure you've disproved it's "rare" with that.

[tom_widdows]

Im not out to prove anything given Ive thought it was bullshit since the late 90s.
A lazy hack journalist/ pundit tagline which in my teenage years I put a certain amount of hope in for lots of games (dons or other) only to deduce its essentially a sports equivalent of horoscopes.

Perhaps there was something to it pre-bosman when players had the fear of being trapped at a relegated team with their freedom to leave in the hands of the club's board so a new manager might be the catalyst to try alot harder, ensuring you could at least tempt a transfer fee out of someone.
Now having the freedom to move on, as soon as your contract is up or perhaps even having a certain clause that lets you go early knowing with a reasonable chance some lower league club in englandshire will shell out at least £5k a week on ya....well who cares what happens to the team.

You can be a tactical genius with all the management qualifications in the world but if you can't get your players (or staff) to work for you then you are wasting everybody's time.

Frankly if anyone at Aberdeen football club is actually putting out genuine statements saying they are even thinking about having a summer clear out then it has become a seriously toxic workplace and as a player i'd have my agent looking elsewhere no matter how long my contract was. 




 

Edited April 17, 2022 by tom_widdows

[sancho_panza]

I'd say Craig Brown gave us a new manager bounce. We looked like we were heading straight for relegation under McGhee, had lost seven games in a row, and we almost immediately turned it around under Brown.

If you think about it though, teams generally sack managers when they're underperforming and especially after terrible results. New managers tend to take over at absolute low points form wise so even if they don't actually do anything different the form is bound to even out a bit.

It's a bit like if you were calling heads and tails and changed to a new coin every time you lost seven times in a row - you'd almost certainly see a "new coin bounce" just because you'd be changing the coin at a low point.

[RicoS321]

Just to clarify, again, I wasn't suggesting Goodwin should have a new manager bounce, just that it is a recorded thing that happens (for obvious reasons). It has little bearing on the long term performance of the team. 

English pish league - new manager bounce

Blog from some weirdo, also English

 

[Elgindon]

Another angle - I was as excited about Goodwins appointment as I was about McInnes,ie not very,....but prepared to give both a chance.As far as early bounce goes,Mcinnes came in at a similar time of season to Goodwin.Won 2,drew 4 and lost 1 at the end of season '13/14.Hardly set the heather on fire,but far exceeded my expectations the next and following 3 seasons.

   Goodwins got a tougher job like,but lets be reasonable..