To the Split: the maths.

[OxfordDon]

So with 5 games left, the run-in for top-6 glory looks as follows (matches against each other in bold ) :

Hearts (45 pts): Dons (A), Killie (A), St Mirren (H), Hibs (A), Ross County (H)

Hibs (40 pts): Celtic (A), Well (H), Dundee Utd (A), Hearts (H), St Johnstone (A)

Dons (38 pts): Hearts (H), St Johnstone (A), Killie (H), Ross County (A), Sevco (H)

St Mirren (37 pts): Dundee Utd (A), Livi (H), Hearts (A), Sevco (A), Killie (H)

Livi (36 pts): Ross County (H), St Mirren (A), Well (A), St Johnstone (H), Dundee Utd (A)

With the St Mirren - Livi game meaning guaranteed dropped points by one or both of them, my dubious maths makes it that we "only" need to win 4 games out of 5 to make top-6.

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by OxfordDon

[RicoS321]

I agreed with myself last week that 45 points would be enough. I think that'll still be the case. I don't see both the two below us getting more than eight points. I think we could scrape two wins and a draw.

[Jute]

Looking at remaining games I thought we might get 8 points but agree 45 should get us over the line. 

[OxfordDon]

Hearts (45):      Killie (A), St Mirren (H), Hibs (A), Ross County (H)

Dons (41):         St Johnstone (A), Killie (H), Ross County (A), Sevco (H)

Hibs (40):         Well (H), Dundee Utd (A), Hearts (H), St Johnstone (A)

Livi (39):           St Mirren (A), Well (A), St Johnstone (H), Dundee Utd (A)

St Mirren (38): Livi (H), Hearts (A), Sevco (A), Killie (H)

Dropped points by St Mirren, but the maths remains at the same - 3 more wins guarantees top 6 (although 2 should likely be enough).

[Panda]

Come on McInnes, time to do your old club a favour.

Beat Hearts, then send the reserves up to Pittodrie the following week.

Edit: Reserves and Ash Taylor  

Edited March 19, 2023 by Panda

[RicoS321]

This thread looking a little pointless these days. Never in doubt. 

Looking beyond the split, I'm going to suggest that three wins (56 points) will be enough to take third spot. Maybe an additional draw might be required, but I don't think so given the form of the other teams. 

In other maths, if st mirren can get a draw against the scum next week, we could get the opportunity to lose them the league the following one. Whilst I don't generally give a fuck who wins it, it'd make things interesting.

[Panda]

Now that top six is secured, it'll be interesting to see how the post-split fixtures work out.

Of the top seven, the breakdown in home/away games after the split would be.

(I didn't work out the below myself, have borrowed it from elsewhere. They won't mind).

Celtic

Rangers, St Mirren. (home)

Hearts, Aberdeen, Hibs, Livi (away)

Rangers

Hearts, Aberdeen, Hibs (home).

Celtic, Livingston, St Mirren (away).

Aberdeen

Celtic, Hibs (home)

Rangers, Hearts, Livingston, St Mirren (away)

Hearts

Celtic, Aberdeen, Hibs, Livingston (home)

Rangers, St Mirren (away).

St Mirren

Rangers, Hearts, Aberdeen (home)

Celtic, Hibs, Livingston (away)

Hibs

Celtic, Livingston, St Mirren (home)

Rangers, Hearts, Aberdeen (away)

Livingston

Celtic, Aberdeen, St Mirren (home)

Rangers, Hearts, Hibs (away)

 

So if Hibs miss out (they could) I presume that might help us as we'd get a third home game against someone. Possibly St Mirren which would be a huge boost as we also shouldn't be discounting them for third.

If Hibs make it and Livingston don't (on current form likely to happen), then I think even though we're currently third, the advantage still lies with Hearts based on their remaining fixtures. Of the seven remaining they have one less v Old Firm, and have also to play us at home.

We really need a win at Ross County and for Hibs and Hearts to draw. Then even if we lose to Rangers we'd have at worst a one-point lead at the split. A draw at Tynecastle and a win over St Mirren may well be enough providing Hearts don't go doing anything stupid like winning at Ibrox or something.

 

Edited April 9, 2023 by Panda

[tom_widdows]

4 hours ago, Panda said:

Now that top six is secured, it'll be interesting to see how the post-split fixtures work out.

Of the top seven, the breakdown in home/away games after the split would be.

(I didn't work out the below myself, have borrowed it from elsewhere. They won't mind).

Celtic

Rangers, St Mirren. (home)

Hearts, Aberdeen, Hibs, Livi (away)

Rangers

Hearts, Aberdeen, Hibs (home).

Celtic, Livingston, St Mirren (away).

Aberdeen

Celtic, Hibs (home)

Rangers, Hearts, Livingston, St Mirren (away)

Hearts

Celtic, Aberdeen, Hibs, Livingston (home)

Rangers, St Mirren (away).

St Mirren

Rangers, Hearts, Aberdeen (home)

Celtic, Hibs, Livingston (away)

Hibs

Celtic, Livingston, St Mirren (home)

Rangers, Hearts, Aberdeen (away)

Livingston

Celtic, Aberdeen, St Mirren (home)

Rangers, Hearts, Hibs (away)

 

So if Hibs miss out (they could) I presume that might help us as we'd get a third home game against someone. Possibly St Mirren which would be a huge boost as we also shouldn't be discounting them for third.

If Hibs make it and Livingston don't (on current form likely to happen), then I think even though we're currently third, the advantage still lies with Hearts based on their remaining fixtures. Of the seven remaining they have one less v Old Firm, and have also to play us at home.

We really need a win at Ross County and for Hibs and Hearts to draw. Then even if we lose to Rangers we'd have at worst a one-point lead at the split. A draw at Tynecastle and a win over St Mirren may well be enough providing Hearts don't go doing anything stupid like winning at Ibrox or something.

 

Tic getting 3 home OF games?

Might want to distance yerself from that source

[RicoS321]

2 hours ago, tom_widdows said:

Tic getting 3 home OF games?

Might want to distance yerself from that source

That's probably how it would come out of a simulated model designed on fairness and equality (throughout the league) alone, but it'd then need special intervention to make one or the other happy. Fuck the rest of course. 

Glass and Goodwin have cost us an extra home game, I hope it was taken out of their severance packages. 

The away game at tynecastle could be pivotal to finishing third. Not a place we generally do well at. 

[tom_widdows]

2 hours ago, RicoS321 said:

That's probably how it would come out of a simulated model designed on fairness and equality (throughout the league) alone, but it'd then need special intervention to make one or the other happy. Fuck the rest of course. 

Glass and Goodwin have cost us an extra home game, I hope it was taken out of their severance packages. 

The away game at tynecastle could be pivotal to finishing third. Not a place we generally do well at. 

 

[Panda]

6 hours ago, tom_widdows said:

Tic getting 3 home OF games?

Might want to distance yerself from that source

Good spot. That would mean if Livingston don't make top six that one of Rangers' home games would have to be away, and Celtic will need an extra home game. 

Quite happy to take Rangers at Pittodrie a third time and for Hearts to go to Celtic Park again, feel that's fair.

[dons8321]

On 09/04/2023 at 12:23, Panda said:

Good spot. That would mean if Livingston don't make top six that one of Rangers' home games would have to be away, and Celtic will need an extra home game. 

Quite happy to take Rangers at Pittodrie a third time and for Hearts to go to Celtic Park again, feel that's fair.

Post split fixtures -

Sevco (a) 7th May

Hibs (h) 13th May

Hearts (a) 20th May

St. Mirren (h) 24th May

Septic (a) 27th May.

Any idea why we're playing Saints for the 3rd time at home and septic for the 3rd time away?

 

[Panda]

2 hours ago, dons8321 said:

Post split fixtures -

Sevco (a) 7th May

Hibs (h) 13th May

Hearts (a) 20th May

St. Mirren (h) 24th May

Septic (a) 27th May.

Any idea why we're playing Saints for the 3rd time at home and septic for the 3rd time away?

 

Because Celtic would have only had one home game in that case, so someone had to play them three times away, and because we finished lower last season out of all the teams currently in the top 6 then we're the ones who are most likely to be disadvantaged.